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Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources

Antero Resources · Nov 6, 2018 · 49 slides

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Slides

  1. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 1
    Company Presentation NOVEMBER 2018
  2. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 2
    The Size and Scale to Capitalize on the Resource Antero Acreage Antero Resources Profile SW Marcellus Core Ohio Utica Core Market Cap............ 5.0B Enterprise Value. 9.0B Corporate Debt Ratings Ba2 / BB+ / BBB- Stand-Alone…
  3. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 3
    Rover Pipeline Uplift and Optionality Rover Sherwood Lateral recently Unlocks development optionality between received approval to be placed into Marcellus and Utica and provides further service in November Chicago & Gulf Coast…
  4. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 4
    Special Committee Process Objectives While evaluating potential alternatives to increase shareholder value, there were a number of key objectives: 1 Return Capital to AR Shareholders - Capitalize on opportunity to repurchase shares…
  5. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 5
    Antero Simplified Pro Forma Structure Midstream simplification transaction results in one publicly traded midstream entity and better aligns the interests of PE sponsors and management with AR shareholders Eliminates IDRs and the…
  6. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 6
    Financially Disciplined Repurchase Program Disciplined share repurchase plan maintains financial flexibility and balance sheet strength with leverage 2.25x in 4Q 2018 and 2.0x by YE 2019 Share Repurchase Details AR Standalone Net Debt…
  7. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 7
    Natural Gas Liquids Update: Leading Position
  8. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 8
    Largest Liquids-rich Drilling Inventory in Appalachia Largest Undrilled Core Liquids-Rich Inventory(1) 2,500 Largest core undeveloped 2,234 liquids-rich inventory Undrilled Liquids-Rich Locations 2,000 Over 2.5X the…
  9. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 9
    Leader in Leverage to NGL Prices Top NGL Producers in the U.S. 2018 Consensus C2+ NGL Production Pre-hedged Realized NGL Price (/Bbl) 140 45% (1) Pre-Hedge NGL % of Total Product Revenues 115 NGLs Generate 37% 40% 120 of AR…
  10. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 10
    Rapidly Growing NGL Production Antero NGL Production Growth by Purity Product 250,000 Natural Gasoline (C5+) IsoButane (iC4) 245,000 Normal Butane (nC4) Propane (C3) Ethane (C2) C3+ Production 200,000 C2 Total (Bbl/d)…
  11. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 11
    Appalachia: Geographic & Infrastructure NGL Advantaged Permian, Rockies, Mid-Continent & Bakken Appalachia Transport Y-grade for out-of-basin fractionation at Mont In-basin fractionation Belvieu and Conway Transport marketable purity…
  12. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 12
    Anteros Ethane Exposure: All Upside Anteros ethane has a natural gas pricing Anteros balanced approach to ethane floor and purity ethane ceiling; increases sales results in 50% of contracts tied in ethane purity prices are all upside…
  13. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 13
    Anteros C3+ NGL Exposure: Highly Leveraged Anteros NGL price directly benefits NGL fundamentals remain constructive and from the recent strengthening support higher prices despite illiquid and of NGL prices at Mont Belvieu…
  14. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 14
    Powerful C3+ NGL Pricing Upside Exposure Compounded pricing leverage from For every 5.00/Bbl increase in NGL increasing volumes, prices, and Mariner prices, Antero generates an East 2 uplift drives cash flow growth incremental 170MM…
  15. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 15
    Anteros NGL Pricing Uplift from Mariner East 2 Mariner East 2 will allow AR to access 50,000 Bbl/d Mariner East 2 commitment international LPG markets and realize a equates to over 107 MM of 5.88/Bbl uplift on its exported barrels…
  16. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 16
    Liquids-Rich Resource + Capital Efficiency = Free Cash Flow
  17. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 17
    Drilling and Completion Efficiencies Drilling Days Completion Stages per Day 35 10.0 10.0 9.0 30 9.0 8.0 25 Drilling Days Stages per Day 20 7.0 20 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.6 15 12 10 4.0 3.6 10 8 3.0 5 2.0 1.0 0 2014 2015…
  18. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 18
    Declining Well Costs Longer Laterals the Next Step Historical Well Costs Marcellus Utica 41% 43% 2014 2017 2014 2017 Lower Costs 2.20 2.60 Marcellus Utica reduction in well costs 2.40 from 2014 to 2017 for a 9,000 lateral…
  19. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 19
    Capital Discipline Leads to Free Cash Flow 48% reduction in D&C capital budget Future D&C capital budgets that are and 15 rig reduction since 2014 measured and within cash flow Stand-Alone Adjusted Cash Flow Alongside D&C Capital…
  20. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 20
    Near Term Free Cash Flow Inflection Point Production growth and strong liquids Capital discipline to reduce completion prices drives free cash flow crews and D&C capex in 4Q18 in 4Q18 and beyond Free Cash Flow(1) Free Cash Flow…
  21. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 21
    Market Premium for Free Cash Flow Yield Industry Leading Free Cash Flow Yield in 2019 160 Weighted Average Price Index 150 Based on FCF Performance 140 Leading E&P 130 29% for FCF Yield 120 110 100 4% 90 E&Ps with…
  22. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 22
    Integrated Business Strategy Drives Peer Leading Margins
  23. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 23
    Well Hedged at High Prices Relative to Strip Commodity Hedge Position Hedged Volume Average Index Hedge Price(1) Current NYMEX Strip(2) Mark-to-Market Value(2) 100% of 2018 and 2019 Target Gas Production Hedged (/MMBtu) at…
  24. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 24
    A Paired Trade Hedges Support Firm Commitments Net Marketing Expense (High End) Hedge Portfolio Supports Net Marketing Expense (Low End) Firm Commitments Hedge Gains 585 0.48/Mcfe 600 469 0.45/Mcfe 5-Year Cumulative: 500…
  25. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 25
    Midstream Driving Value for AR Since Inception Antero Midstream (NYSE: AM) provides a Owning and controlling the midstream customized midstream solution for AR infrastructure is crucial to (AR owns 53% of AM) consistent long-term…
  26. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 26
    The Leader in All-In Realized Pricing in Appalachia Anteros integrated strategy has resulted in peer-leading all-in realized prices Consistent results through the price cycles amongst the peer group All-In Realized Pricing (/Mcfe)…
  27. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 27
    Consistent Leader in EBITDAX Margin Anteros integrated strategy has resulted in peer- Sustainable margins through the price cycles leading EBITDAX margins for 6 years Leader in EBITDAX Margin EBITDAX Margin WTI Price (/Mcfe)…
  28. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 28
    Antero Midstream At A Glance Status Quo AM Highlights Antero Midstream Marcellus Assets Market Cap....... 5.6B Enterprise Value.......... 7.1B LTM Adjusted EBITDA(1).. 665 MM % Gathering/Compression 65% New Smithburg JV %…
  29. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 29
    Long-Term Distribution and Coverage Targets Unchanged capital investment philosophy with disciplined financial policies result in ability to target peer-leading distribution growth through 2022 Long-Term Distribution Targets and DCF…
  30. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 30
    Northeast Value Chain Opportunity 5-year identified project inventory of 2.7B plus an additional 1.0B of potential downstream opportunities Upstream Downstream AM Assets AM/MPLX JV Assets Potential AM Opportunities 800MM JV…
  31. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 31
    Antero Profile Should Drive Multiple Expansion Median Debt/ Median EV/ of Adjusted 2019 Adj. AR 2019E Companies EBITDAX EBITDAX unhedged U.S. Publicly Traded E&Ps EBITDAX Multiple: 3.5x 52 2.1x 4.8x Premium for: Leverage <…
  32. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 32
    Most Integrated Natural Gas & NGL Business in the U.S. 53% Ownership World Class E&P A Leading Northeast Operator in Appalachia Infrastructure Platform Contiguous Core Acreage Position Allows for Long Lateral Drilling and…
  33. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 33
    Appendix
  34. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 34
    Updated 2018 Guidance Stand-Alone Consolidated Net Daily Production (Bcfe/d) 2.7 Net Liquids Production (BBl/d) 130,000 Natural Gas Realized Price Differential to 0.05 to 0.10 Premium Nymex C3+ NGL Realized Price 57.5% 62.5%…
  35. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 35
    Antero Guidance and Long-Term Target Assumptions Stand-Alone Consolidated 20% CAGR through 2020 and 15% Growth in each of Net Daily Production (MMcfe/d) 2021 and 2022 Natural Gas Realized Price Differential 0.05 to 0.10 Premium…
  36. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 36
    Antero Guidance and Long-Term Target Assumptions (Cont.) Stand-Alone E&P Consolidated 10.4B Adjusted Operating Cash Flow(1) N/A (Cumulative 2018 2022) 1,500 1,600 (2018 2020) 1,300 1,400 (2018 2021) Annual D&C Capital…
  37. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 37
    Antero Long-Term Target Project Assumptions In-Service Date Rover Phase 2 4Q 2018 Mariner East 2 4Q 2018 WB Xpress West 4Q 2018 WB Xpress East 4Q 2018 Mountaineer Xpress / Gulf Xpress 1Q 2019 Note: Based on publicly…
  38. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 38
    Compelling Full Cycle Well Economics Fully burdened pre-hedge well Corporate ROR economics support investment well in excess of cost of capital Single Well Economics Bridge to Corporate Level Returns 120% Well Assumptions 12,000…
  39. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 39
    Liquidity & Debt Term Structure 9/30/2018 Debt Maturity Profile AR Credit Facility AM Credit Facility AR Senior Notes AM Senior Notes 3,000 2,500 New credit facilities for AR and AM have allowed 875 2,000 Antero to extend…
  40. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 40
    Deleveraging is Driving Ratings Momentum Corporate Credit Ratings History Stable Credit Ratings with Consistent Investment Grade Rating from Upgrades from the Beginning of the Fitch (BBB-) & Recent Decade Through the Downturn…
  41. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 41
    Operating Evolution Continues Achievements Next Steps in 2018 Marcellus Well Cost(1) to Date Efficiency Evolution Facilities, Pad Flowback Water & Road Drilling Rigs/Services 42% 5% Allocation 9% Fit-for-purpose rigs with dual…
  42. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 42
    Dramatically Lower F&D Cost F&D Cost per Mcfe(1)(2) Marcellus Utica 1.40 1.28 52% 42% 1.20 Lower F&D in Marcellus Utica (2014 2017) 1.00 0.94 0.88 0.80 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.60 0.51 0.42 0.40 0.20 0.00 2014 2015…
  43. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 43
    Core of the Core Development Programs Half Cycle Total Average BTU 2018 Well 2019 Well Well EUR Regime Undrilled Lateral Range Completions Completions Economics Locations Length (Strip Price) Marcellus Highly-Rich Gas 1275-1350…
  44. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 44
    Antero Assumptions: Single Well Economics SWE Cost Type Description of Cost Half Cycle Full Cycle Drilling and completion costs Assumes well costs for a 12,000 lateral, Marcellus: 10.6MM Marcellus: 11.4MM 2,000 lbs of proppant per…
  45. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 45
    Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation AR Stand-Alone and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Stand-Alone Consolidated Three months ended September 30, Three months ended September 30, (in thousands) 2017 2018…
  46. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 46
    Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Margin Reconciliation AR Stand-Alone and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX Margin Reconciliation Stand-Alone Consolidated Three months ended September 30, Three months ended September 30, 2017 2018…
  47. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 47
    Antero Resources Stand-alone Adjusted EBITDAX Per Mcfe Standalone Adjusted EBITDAX per Mcfe Reconciliation (Annual) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q2018 2Q2018 3Q2018 (/Mcfe) Natural Gas, Oil, Ethane and NGL sales 4.31 4.74 2.53 2.60…
  48. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 48
    Antero Resources Standalone Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Standalone LTM Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Stand-Alone Twelve months ended September 30, (in thousands) 2018 Net income attributable to Antero Resources Corporation…
  49. Corporate Presentation – Antero Resources – slide 49
    Antero Resources Standalone Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Standalone LTM Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Stand-Alone Twelve months ended September 30, (in thousands) 2018 Net income attributable to Antero Resources Corporation…

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