FOCUSED ON VALUE IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT Analyst Day - November 14, 2017 1
Purpose Two key objectives Demonstrate our success with adapting to the environment Illustrate our approach to value creation 5
Agenda Todays Schedule Introductions Berk Sumen Our Strengths and our Approach to Value Creation Jason Skehar Our Focus on Financial Flexibility Dean Kobelka Our Assets Bruce Jensen, Wayne Merkel, Colin Ranger, Scott Shimek,…
Our Strengths & Our Approach 7
Our Approach What enables us to succeed Concentrated position in resource rich basin allows for: Optimal Low Strategic Innovation and Capital Cost Capital Enhancement Efficiencies Operations Allocation 8
Our Strengths Concentrated land base Over the years we have concentrated 2008 our land base from 4 core areas to 2 Current BC Deep Basin NPRA EA West Central SA 9
Our Strengths Optimizing capital efficiencies 3-Year Average F&D Costs/boe2 Capital Efficiencies1 11,800 7.59 Bonavista 2017E Bonavista 2016 45% improvement 53% improvement Bonavista 2013 Bonavista 2013 19,300 15.83…
Our Strengths Strategic capital allocation enhances sustainability 147% 116% 147% 40% 120% 35% 105% 30% 90% 25% 75% 20% 60% 15% 45% Only 1/3 of peer group 10% 30% can maintain production 5% 15% with less than 2/3 of…
Our Strengths Strategic capital allocation allows for self-funded growth West Central Deep Basin 28,000 1,400 26,000 1,200 24,000 93% 308MM Funds From Operations (MM) Production (boe/d) 1,000 22,000 20,000 800…
Our Strengths Enhancing revenue portfolio with liquids rich development 2016 Edmonton Spot Propane2 80 12% 70 6% 60 US Cents/Gallon) 2017E 50 134 million 40 59% 23% 8% 30 20 10 24% 0 -10 48% 205 million1 2015 2016…
Our Strengths Enhanced performance through innovation Continued improvement in 800 capital efficiency as drilling 700 activity increases by 45% 600 26% improvement 9,200 4% Capital Efficiency (/boepd)2 500 9,000 IP12…
Our Strengths Improved operational performance with consolidation 9,500 Current production 9,000 8,500 8,000 Current production Drilled 7.2 7,500 8,800 boe/d net wells year to date Boe/d 7,000 Turnaround impact…
2017 Accomplishments Improved financial flexibility 900 4.0 Extended bank credit facility an additional two Net debt to Funds From Operations years with maturity date of September 2021 875 3.5 Net Debt (MM)1 Reduced…
Financial Flexibility 19 All together better
20 Long-term Debt net of Adjusted Working Capital ( MM)1 1,200 1,500 900 600 1. From Q415 to Q418. Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17E Q1'18F Q2'18F 528…
Financial Flexibility Credit facility composition and liquidity position Bank credit facility - 500 million CDN Senior notes (CDN) Recently renewed bank credit facility, matures September 10, 2021 Elected to reduce commitment by 100…
Financial Flexibility Well hedged to protect future funds from operations Q417 Natural Gas Oil1 Propane 28% 29% 43% 57% 72% 71% Hedged 228 mmcf/d at 4,500 bbls/d at 3,000 bbls/d at C3.32/mcf C65.35/bbls C28.11/bbls 2018 Hedged…
Financial Flexibility Well hedged and diversified 2018 Industry Natural Gas Hedging 2018 Bonavista Natural Gas Diversification 60% 50% 40% Station 2 30% Average 20% Dawn 10% Chicago Ventura 0% Numbers…
Our Assets 25 All together better
Focused in the Best Plays Our play economics compete with the top plays Kakwa (Nest 2) Montney Liquids-Rich Gas Bilbo/Karr Montney Liquids-Rich Gas Heritage Montney Liquid Rich Gas Greater Kakwa/Resthaven Spirit River Gas Kaybob…
Focused in the Best Plays Competitive supply costs Our owned and operated The cost to develop our Spirit infrastructure supports lower River and Mannville plays cash costs compete Full Supply Cost Cash Costs (/boe)2 3-Year Average…
Focused in the Best Plays Competitive netbacks 35.00 30.00 Spirit River producers have similar netbacks to Montney After-Tax Netbacks (/boe) 25.00 producers 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 Q1/13A Q3/13A Q1/14A…
Bonavista Development Economics Comparable and profitable economics at 2.50/gj 40 50 45 35 40 30 35 Months 25 30 % 25 20 20 Payout 1 15 15 10 10 IRR 2.00 2.50 2.00 2.50 AECO Natural Gas Price…
Spirit River 30 All together better
Spirit River Notikewin Extensive reach of Spirit River plays Wilrich shoreface deposits Falher and Notikewin fluvial channels Wilrich Multi-zone stacked opportunity Infrastructure in place Falher Falher Spirit River Composite…
Spirit River Committed to the Spirit River 30,000 40 35 25,000 30 Net Wells Drilled() 20,000 Production (boe/d) 25 15,000 20 15 10,000 10 5,000 5 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E Dec Dec Dec…
Spirit River Net prospect inventory growing our ERH locations Prospect Inventory % Prospect Inventory Total Inventory ERH of inventory 1-mile Wilrich 88.4 60% 59.1 147.5 Falher 107.4 74% 37.9 145.3 Notikewin 14.7 19% 63.1…
Spirit River Ansell Wilrich Significant development potential R18 R17 R16 R15 R14 Drilled 64 gross (61.9 net) wells in five years T52 74,000 131 gross (126.1 net) locations in net acres inventory, 68% ERH T51 Horizontal length…
Spirit River Ansell Wilrich Well length, orientation and completion design enhances performance Year over Year Improvements Well Characteristics 7,000 Ansell Wilrich 6,000 2017 2016 % change to date Raw Gas (mcf/d) Drill…
Spirit River Ansell Wilrich Well completion innovations 10,000 15-36 13-36 9,000 95% 8,000 increase Raw Gas Production (mcf/d) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 13-36 15-36 1,000 Horizontal Length (m) 1,426…
Spirit River Ansell Wilrich Drilling technology enhancing efficiency decrease in increase in 0 500 Days versus Depth 2017 2016 44% costs per meter 37 % meters drilled per day 1000 2015 2,500 300 Drill Cost per HZ…
Spirit River Ansell Wilrich Evolution of length and orientation Diagonal 1-mile N-S ERH ERH Wells Wells Wells 8,000 Average Cost to Drill & Complete (mm) 4.2 4.4 4.3 7,000 IP12 (boe/d) 330 480 870 6,000 Capital Efficiency…
Spirit River Ansell Infrastructure Expanding Ansell facility capacity and connectivity R21 R20 R19 R18 R17 Repsol Edson T53 2017 highlights Expanded Ansell process capacity to 100 mmcf/d T52 Connected northern gathering system…
Spirit River Morningside Falher R1W5 R28 R27 Increased land base by 17,000 acres in 24 Locations added with the addition of 27 the last 12 months sections of land in the past 12-months T43 Over 300% increase in available…
Spirit River Morningside Falher Enhanced performance with extended reach drilling (ERH) Year over Year Improvements Average Well Characteristics 8,000 Morningside Falher 7,000 2017 (2-mile) 2017 (1.5 mile) 2017 2016 % change…
Spirit River Morningside Falher Infrastructure expansion to accommodate growth R28 R27 Keyera Rimbey Ferrybank 2-1 Plant Recent Highlights: 9-1 T43 Increased Morningside capacity from 19 mmcf/d to 32 mmcf/d 11-35 Installed 8…
Spirit River Notikewin Successful 2017 results in the Ferrier area R9 R8 R7 T42 IP12 of 470 boe/d with 7,000 6,000 40 bbls/mmcf of liquids 5,000 Raw Natural Gas (mcf/d) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 T41 Bonavista…
Spirit River - Notikewin Testing the Notikewin on recently acquired acreage Currently drilling seismically defined channel Adjacent existing infrastructure with surplus capacity With success, will repeat with similar Notikewin…
Mannville 50 All together better
Mannville Extensive Mannville development potential Liquid rich natural gas reservoirs Bluesky Ellerslie Delineated by productive vertical wells Predictable production performance Glauconite Established operations and…
Mannville Stable horizontal well production Maintaining 40,000 80 production while 35,000 drilling fewer wells 70 30,000 60 Production (boe/d) 25,000 50 Net Wells Drilled() 20,000 40 15,000 30 10,000 20 5,000…
Mannville Shallowing decline rates 40,000 35,000 36% 27% 30,000 Production (boe/d) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Mar May Mar May Mar May Mar May Mar May Jul Jul…
Mannville Ample inventory to convert to higher value ERH Prospect Inventory % Prospect Inventory Total ERH of inventory 1-mile Inventory Hoadley Glauc 27.6 12% 193.3 220.9 Strachan Glauc 68.7 82% 15.4 84.1 Bluesky 19.7 26%…
Mannville Enhancing revenue with liquids rich Mannville development 2017 YTD Revenue Natural Gas Liquids Production 50% 45% C5+ 40% 24% 35% % of total production Natural 30% Gas 25% C4 49% 20% 10% 15% C3 10% 11%…
Mannville Glauconite Significant resource in place Reliable and predictable future development Available infrastructure capacity at low cost HOADLEY Drilled 322 gross (268.8 net) locations to the end of 2017 280 gross (220.8…
Mannville Strachan Glauconite Positioning Strachan for growth Land Growth Over the Past Year 90 R10 R9 R8 R7W5 T39 Access to 60,000 % acres over last 12 months T38 100 80 of locations 60 T37 40 20 Bonavista…
Mannville Strachan Glauconite Continuous improvements in ERH performance Year over Year Performance Average Well Characteristics 6,000 Strachan Glauconite 5,000 2017 2016 % change 2 Wells 4,000 Drill & complete capital 5.0…
Mannville Strachan Glauconite Enhancing economics with the application of drilling technology decrease in increase in 0 500 Days versus Depth 2015 2016 27% costs per meter 49% meters drilled per day 1000 2017 3,000 250…
Mannville Strachan Glauconite Evaluating process and egress options R10 R9 R8 Option 3T38 Option 1 Bonavista process facility Keyera Strachan 6 inch Option 2 - 4 8 inch Third party process facility Option 1 T37 High pressure…
Mannville Strachan Glauconite Pursuing options will enhance economics Lower cost processing Current solution 36% reduction in operating costs Capital ( millions) 5.0 5.0 F&D (/boe) 6.87 6.87 Operating Costs (/boe) 5.32…
Mannville Glauconite Dependable production base with stable inventory 30,000 9% increase in available 25,000 meters in inventory 500 20,000 Production (boe/d) 400 300 15,000 200 10,000 100 of locations 0 5,000…
Mannville Hoadley Glauconite Reliable and predictable performance seven years later 2,500 300 Most recent 30 wells IP12 1,240 mcf/d 2,000 Raw Natural Gas (mcf/d) Number of Wells 1,500 200 Next 170 wells (2011-2015)…
Mannville - Bluesky R20 R19 R18 R17 T59 T57 Bluesky position has materially increased since 2015 due to swap and farm-in Prospect inventory has increased over 100% from 64 (37.7 net) locations in 2015 to 130 (77.1 net)…
Mannville Pine Creek Bluesky Liquids rich natural gas development optimizing nearby operated facility throughput R20 R19 R18 R17W5 Drilled 36 gross (24.6 net) Bluesky horizontals wells since 2010 T58 84 gross (56.4 net)…
Mannville Medicine Lodge Bluesky R21 R20 R19W5 New area for BNP via farm-in T53 21 gross (15.5 net) sections Six well commitment 40 gross (18.2 net) locations in inventory Competitor offset wells T52 6,000 Raw Natural…
Mannville - Ellerslie Emerging liquids rich play R19 R18 R17 R16 R15 Extensive land position with 74 gross (48.5 net) locations T57 identified, 30% are ERH Multiple channels up to 30 m in thickness Close proximity to…
Mannville - Ellerslie Initial 4,500 2x gas rate Well 4,000 with stabilized CGR2 to Average Cost to Drill & Complete (mm) 4.4 be determined IP12 (boe/d) 475 3,500 Capital Efficiency (/boepd) 1 9,750 Raw Natural Gas (mcf/d)…
Three Year Scenario 71 All together better
Commodity Price Forecasts Business plan highly sensitive to small fluctuations in price 50 3.00 Two different 45 outcomes Growth dependent in value at 2.50/gj 2.75 on pricing 40 2.50 35 2.50 Months AECO (/gj) 30…
Three Year Scenario at 2.50/gj Capital allocation 2018F 2019F 2020F E&D Expenditures ( millions): Value 1 190 - 200 260 - 270 290 - 300 Support 2 55 45 55 Total 245-255 305-315 345-355 Wells Drilled: Spirit River 28.4 43.5…
Three Year Scenario at 2.50/gj Production and FFO performance 2018F 2019F 2020F Production: Natural Gas (% of total) 71% 73% 75% Natural Gas Liquids (% of total) 26% 24% 23% Oil (% of total) 3% 3% 2% Total (boe/d) 73,500-75,500…
Three Year Scenario at 2.50/gj 120,000 100,000 80,000 Production (boe/d) 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar Jun Jun Jun Mar Mar Jun Mar Sept Sept…
Spirit River Three Year Scenario at 2.50/gj 50,000 45,000 Spirit River 40,000 production 35,000 Production (boe/d) will provide a 30,000 26% CAGR1 25,000 20,000 over the 15,000 next three 10,000 years 5,000 0…
Mannville Three Year Scenario at 2.50/gj 40,000 Mannville 35,000 production 30,000 will provide a Production (boe/d) 7% 25,000 CAGR1 20,000 while generating 15,000 excess net 10,000 operating 5,000 income 0 Dec…
Three Year Scenario at 2.50/gj Improving debt leverage while growing sustainably 450 Payout of 80-95% 5.0 400 4.5 Net debt to Funds From Operations (X:1) 4.0 350 3.5 300 3.0 Millions 250 2.5 200 2.0 150 1.5…
Three Year Scenario at 2.50/gj 10% CAGR in production per million debt and dividend adjusted shares 9% CAGR in funds from operations per million debt and dividend adjusted shares 80-95% total payout ratio 79 2.1x Net…
2018 Guidance 80 All together better
2018 Priorities At 2.00/gj we will direct capital to strengthen balance sheet Maximize funds from operations while maintaining production Strengthen financial position with excess funds from operations Enhance asset base…
2018 Capital Allocation to Maintain Production Wells Expenditures Net ( millions) Spirit River 19.5 - 20.0 83-93 Morningside Falher 9.5 - 10.0 Ansell Wilrich 8.0 Notikewin 2.0 Mannville 9.5 - 10.0 43-49 Glauconite 5.5 - 6.0…
2018 Operational and Financial Guidance 2018F Capital Expenditures ( millions): Total Exploration and Development 160 - 180 Divestitures, net of Acquisitions - Total Capital Expenditures 160 - 180 Production (mboe/d) 71.0 73.0…
Board of Directors Depth of experience and diverse skillset Keith MacPhail Jason Skehar Ian Brown David Carey Executive Chairman President and Chief Executive Officer Independent Director Independent Director Theresa Jang…
Experience and Alignment Leadership team Jason Skehar Bruce Jensen Dean Kobelka Wayne Merkel President and Chief Executive Officer Chief Operating Officer Vice President, Finance and Vice President, Exploration Chief Financial…