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November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas · Nov 1, 2018 · 35 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 1
    ENERGY SLIDESHOW Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Updated: November 1, 2018
  2. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 2
    ENERGY PRICES Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
  3. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 3
    Brent &WTI WTI&Crude BrentOil Crude Oil Dollars per barrel Brent (Oct 26 = 78.23) WTI (Oct 26 = 67.43) 140 95% confidence 120 bands for WTI 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020…
  4. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 4
    Henry HenryHub HubNatural Gas Natural Gas & Marcellus Dollars per million Henry Hub (Oct 26 = 3.32) Marcellus (Oct 26 = 2.35) British thermal units 7 6 95% confidence bands for Henry Hub 5 4 3 2 1 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014…
  5. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 5
    Regular Retail Gasoline Gasoline & Highway Diesel & Diesel Retail price per gallon PADD Gasoline Diesel 1 2.73 3.35 1A 2.81 3.37 1B 2.85 3.52 1C 2.64 3.22 2 2.68 3.31 3 2.52 3.12 4 2.96 3.41 5 3.48 3.85 U.S. 2.81 3.36 NOTES:…
  6. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 6
    GLOBAL PETROLEUM Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
  7. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 7
    World World Oil Supply Oil Supply & Demand & Demand Million barrels per day 104 Q3 102 2018 100.5 100 World 98 production 100.6 96 World 94 consumption 92 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015…
  8. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 8
    Implied World OilChange Supplyin&World DemandOil Stocks Million barrels per day 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTE: Shaded…
  9. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 9
    OPECOPEC Crude Oil Production Oil Production & Rig Count Million barrels per day 34.0 Sept 33.0 32.7 32.0 31.0 30.0 29.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of…
  10. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 10
    OECDCommercial OECD CommercialInventories Oil Inventories Million barrels 3,200 3,100 3,000 Sept 2,900 2831 2,800 2,700 2010-2014 average 2,600 2,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NOTES: OECD…
  11. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 11
    World OECD Oil Production Commercial Outages Inventories Million barrels per day 3.0 OPEC 2.5 Sep 2.0 1.46 1.5 1.0 0.38 Non-OPEC 0.5 0.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: OPEC is the…
  12. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 12
    NATIONAL OUTLOOK Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
  13. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 13
    U.S. U.S. Oil Oil & Gas Production Production & Rig Count U.S. crude oil production U.S. natural gas production Million barrels per day Billion cubic feet per day 12 120 11 110 10 100 9 90 8 80 7 70 6 60 5 50 4 40 3 30 2…
  14. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 14
    U.S. U.S. OilOil Production Production && Rig Rig Count Count U.S. crude oil production U.S. oil rig count Million barrels per day Number of active rigs 17 1,700 15 1,500 13 Aug 1,300 11.35 11 1,100 9 900 Oct 7 875 700 5…
  15. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 15
    U.S. Oil Gasoline & Gas Employment Demand Number of jobs (thousands) 420 380 340 Aug 300 281.2 260 Support activities for oil and gas operations Oil and gas 220 extraction Sep 152.3 180 140 100 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016…
  16. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 16
    Commercial Crude Crude Oil Oil & Product Inventories Inventories Million barrels 2012-2016 range 2012-2016 average 2018 2017 600 550 500 450 Oct 400 Aug 426 401 Sep 350 404 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct…
  17. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 17
    Natural Gasoline Gas Inventories Demand Trillion cubic feet 2012-2016 range 2012-2016 average 2018 2017 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Oct 2.5 Sep 3.1 Aug 2.9 2.0 2.6 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec…
  18. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 18
    Gasoline Gasoline DemandInventories Million barrels 2012-2016 range 2012-2016 average 2018 2017 270 260 250 Sep 240 235 Oct Aug 226 230 236 220 210 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks use…
  19. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 19
    Distillate Gasoline DemandInventories Million barrels 2012-2016 range 2012-2016 average 2018 2017 180 170 160 150 140 130 Sep Aug 136 120 132 Oct 126 110 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks…
  20. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 20
    Vehicle Gasoline Miles Traveled Demand Billion miles traveled 275 Aug 271 270 265 260 255 250 245 240 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates…
  21. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 21
    Gasoline Gasoline DemandConsumption Million barrels per day 2012-2016 range 2012-2016 average 2018 2017 10.0 9.8 Sep 9.6 Aug 9.32 Oct 9.75 9.21 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov…
  22. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 22
    REGIONAL ACTIVITY Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas www.dallasfed.org/research/energy
  23. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 23
    TexasTexas Oil & Gas Production Oil Production & Rig Count Texas crude oil production Texas natural gas production Million barrels per day Billion cubic feet per day 5.0 40 4.5 35 4.0 30 3.5 3.0 25 2.5 20 2.0 15 1.5…
  24. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 24
    Texas Texas OilOil Production Production &&RigRig Count Count Texas crude oil production Texas rig count Million barrels per day Number of active rigs 9.5 950 8.5 850 7.5 750 6.5 Oct 650 537 5.5 550 4.5 450 Aug 3.5 4.58…
  25. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 25
    Texas Texas Oil & Mining Gas Employment Sector Employment Number of jobs (thousands) 210 190 Sep 170 165.3 Support activities 150 for mining 130 Oil and gas 110 extraction 75.4 90 70 50 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012…
  26. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 26
    12-Month Total Rig Change by County Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas *Change in total rigs, from 10/27/2017 to 10/26/2018. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  27. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 27
    3-Month Total Rig Change by County Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas *Change in total rigs, from 7/27/2018 to 10/26/2018. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  28. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 28
    Crude Oil Production by State Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: Data shown are monthly, for August 2018. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
  29. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 29
    Natural Gas Production by State NOTES: Data shown are monthly, for August 2018. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Series depicted is marketed natural gas production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
  30. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 30
    Crude Oil Production by Region Million barrels per day 4.0 Permian 3.5 Basin 3.0 2.5 2.0 Eagle 1.5 Ford Bakken 1.0 Niobrara 0.5 Other 0.0 areas 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Federal Reserve…
  31. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 31
    Natural Gas Production by Region Billion cubic feet per day 35 30 Appalachia 25 20 Permian Basin 15 Haynesville 10 5 Other areas Eagle Ford 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Federal Reserve…
  32. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 32
    Energy Survey Business Activity In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firms level of business activity increased, not changed or decreased Diffusion index 100 80 60 40.1 41.8 40.7 44.5 43.3 37.3 38.1 40 26.7…
  33. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 33
    Breakeven Prices for New Wells Dallas Fed Energy SurveyIn the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well Dollars per barrel 90 Permian Other U.S. 80 Permian…
  34. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 34
    Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells Dallas Fed Energy SurveyIn the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells Dollars per barrel 80 Other U.S.…
  35. November 2018 Energy Update – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – slide 35
    Additional Resources Energy Indicators A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector Dallas Fed Energy Survey A quarterly assessment of energy activity as reported by 150 oil and…

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