Lundin Petroleum Capital Markets Day 30 January 2019
Lundin Petroleum 2019 Capital Markets Day Agenda 1. Value creation - what weve achieved and where were going Who will be presenting today.... 2. Industry leading cost efficient growth - it keeps on getting better 3. Production…
Value creation what weve achieved and where were going 3
Lundin Petroleum A Leading European Independent E&P Company 9.5 Bn USD 1 Bn boe Market Cap Resource base 2018 Dividend Payment 153 MUSD 340 320 300 170 Mboepd by 2023 Industry Leading 280 20% CAGR Low Opex 260 240 IPC…
Lundin Petroleum 2018 Highlights Strong Production Low Operating Costs 81.1 Mboepd 3.66 USD/boe upper end revised guidance 12% below original guidance Record Free Cash Flow Johan Sverdrup 663 MUSD first oil on track for Nov…
Lundin Petroleum Key Metrics Strong track record of organic growth and delivery 2P Reserves (2) Production Operating Costs Operating Cash Flow 7595 726 745 86 1,890 714 81 10.7 654 1,530 59 Net Mboepd Net MMboe…
Southern Barents Sea Southeastern Trend Lundin Petroleum 7.3 billion barrels(2) Norway Pure Play Loppa High Hammerfest Organic growth strategy NCS ranks in top 10 worldwide exploration areas(1) Harstad Significant yet to find…
Lundin Petroleum Industry Leading Low Carbon Intensity ESG Ratings 2018 Top 10 ESG in Europe Top 5 on human rights globally Emissions intensity (1) Prime Status kgCO2e/boe Outperformer AA 20 A- 10 0.7 5 Power from shore…
Lundin Petroleum Safe Operations Total Recordable Incident Rate (TRIR) (1) 2.7 1.0 Norway (2) Lundin (3) Zero serious injuries (3) Zero process safety incidents (3) No material environmental incidents (3) WF12502…
Lundin Petroleum What to Expect in 2019 Production Sustained Low OPEX 7595 Mboepd 4.25 USD/boe Johan Sverdrup 4 Project Sanctions first oil Nov 2019 Luno II, Rolvsnes EWT, Edvard Grieg infills, Frosk Organic Growth Dividends…
Long-term 500 MUSD value creation dividend in 2019 Sustainable 1 Bn USD dividends average free cash flow below 50 USD/bbl per year (1) 4 USD/boe industry leading low OPEX 170 Mboepd Targeting by 2023 200 Mboepd + organic…
Industry leading cost efficient growth it keeps on getting better 13
Lundin Petroleum 2018 Production 2018 Production Efficiency 2018 production of 81.1 Mboepd Upper end of updated guidance of 7882 Mboepd (1) Edvard Grieg Reservoir and facilities outperformance Annual guidance at CMD, 95% 2018…
Lundin Petroleum 2019 Production Guidance 2019 production guidance: 7595 Mboepd Edvard Grieg plateau production, no material planned shutdowns Alvheim Area decline arrested by new wells Johan Sverdrup expected first oil November…
Lundin Petroleum Industry Leading Low Operating Costs 2018 unit operating cost 12% below original guidance (2) Improved Long-term Guidance Opex (USD/boe) 16 3.24.2 USD/boe(4) (previously 3.9-4.4) 8 4.25 3.24.2 3.66…
Lundin Petroleum Year-end 2018 2P Reserves (1, 4) (net) Alvheim Area 23.2 Ivar Aasen 2P Reserves Life Index 24 years(2) 1.7 Edvard Grieg 115.9 MMboe End 2017 726.3 Total - 2018 Production + Revisions -30.1 +49.2 745.4…
Lundin Petroleum Track Record of Growing Reserves Reserve Replacement Ratio (%) (1, 2) 6754% Johan Sverdrup 5th consecutive year of reserves growth while growing production x 4 242% Reserves Growth 163% 144% 133%…
Lundin Petroleum Year-end 2018 2C Contingent Resources (net) Edvard Grieg Johan Sverdrup infill drilling infill drilling 10 30 Alta/Gohta MMboe Other 87 End 2017 203.4 26 Total + Discoveries +4.8 Alvheim Area 225.4 +…
Lundin Petroleum Year-end 2018 Reserves and Resources Summary (MMboe net) 1 billion barrels resource base What to look out for in 2019 Reserve Bookings Luno II Edvard Grieg upside Edvard Grieg infills Rolvsnes EWT…
Lundin Petroleum Increased Long-term Production Guidance (Mboepd) Target 200 Mboepd Upsides and New Projects 170 150 Increased Production Guidance Mboepd New Was 7595 Johan Sverdrup 86 81 Phase 1 Plateau 150 130 (2020)…
Production assets maximising value for the long-term 22
Lundin Petroleum Greater Edvard Grieg Area Keeping the Facilities Full Edvard Grieg Reserves upside and infill opportunities Johan Sverdrup Lille Prinsen Edvard Grieg Goddo Rolvsnes Tie-backs Ivar Aasen Luno II,…
Edvard Grieg Strong Operating Performance Production efficiency: 98% 2018 (96% 2019 assumption) Well capacity double available facilities capacity Production outlook reflects contractual capacity allocation - 90 Mbopd for Edvard…
Edvard Grieg Reservoir Outperformance Plateau extended six months to mid-2020 4D Seismic Response Significantly slower build-up of water production than expected Recent 4D seismic - water flood front further from producers than…
Areas evaluated for infill wells Edvard Grieg Exploration /Appraisal wells Water injector 2019 exploration targets Oil producer Infill and Step-out Opportunities Planned producer Planned water injector PL338FS Perforated…
0 KM 4 338 338 16/1-14 (Apollo) Luno II 16/1-15 16/1-4 16/1-13 Edvard Grieg Developing Satellites to Edvard Grieg 16/1-10 16/1-18 16/1-17 16/1-8 265 16/1-23 16/1-12 Edv ard Grieg Sr PL359 (Lundin 65%…
Luno II Development Project - Phase 1 PDO/sanction First oil 2019 2020 2021 Edvard Grieg Facilities contracts awarded Topsides Synergies with Rolvsnes EWT modifications Luno II Phase 1 Development Contingent resources 57…
Rolvsnes/Goddo Developing Porous/Fractured Basement PL338C Lundin (operator) 80% WI OMV 20% PL338 PL265 Strategic acquisition of Lime Petroleums interests: Edvard Grieg PL338C / E Rolvsnes (Lundin now 80% operated) Rolvsnes…
Rolvsnes/Goddo Phased Approach Phased approach 2018 Rolvsnes horizontal appraisal well and DST - completed 2019 Goddo prospect drilling 2021 Rolvsnes EWT tied in subsea to Edvard Grieg - sanction Q1 2019 Phased full field…
Greater Edvard Grieg Area Extended Plateau Production End Plateau Latest 2P Reserves Plateau Original PDO revised to mid 2020 Plateau Extension 100 3P reserves - Edvard Grieg/Luno II upsides 80 Rolvsnes - Rolvsnes/Goddo full…
Alvheim Area Continuous Reserves Growth Alvheim Gross Reserves/Resources (MMboe)(1) 607 494 Strong reservoir performance +92% Portfolio of good infill drilling opportunities 257 Frosk area potential 200 MMboe (2) Alvheim…
Alvheim Area Strong Performance Continued strong facilities performance 2018 production efficiency 97% Good results from 2017/2018 infill wells 3 wells on line in 2018 Largely arrests decline 2 wells online in 2019 Frosk test…
PL203b PL919 PL203 PL036c 0 KM 8 PL088BS Alvheim Alvheim Area Frosk Upside - a New Alvheim Volund PL150 ay NorwK PL736 S 0 KM 4 U way UK ' Frosk Discovery PL869 869 Nor 24/9-3 PL869 (20% W.I.)…
Johan Sverdrup the final countdown 35
Lundin Petroleum Johan Sverdrup Key Numbers Improving GROSS RESOURCES PRODUCTION CAPACITY BREAK EVEN PRICE GROSS CAPEX (1) Phase 1 Full Field Phase 1 Phase 2 2.23.2 billion boe First oil Nov 2019 First oil Q4 2022 Full Field PDO 123…
Johan Sverdrup Phase 1 The Countdown to First Oil On track for expected first oil November 2019 Ramp-up to Phase 1 plateau 440 Mbopd expected summer 2020 Rapid ramp-up of 8 pre-drilled wells Drilling of further 2 to 4 wells…
Johan Sverdrup Reservoir Update 20 pre-drilled wells completed ahead of schedule Recovery ambition 70% Gross resource range increased to 2.23.2 billion boe Permanent reservoir monitoring Lundin 2P reserves (net): 605 MMboe (1) Infill…
Johan Sverdrup Phase 2 Phase 2 PDO submitted, First Oil Q4 2022 Development progressing on plan New processing platform Field centre modifications Power from shore area solution Five subsea templates 28 wells WF12505 p04…
Johan Sverdrup Driving Production Growth Full field capacity 660 Mbopd First oil Q4 2022 Phase 1 capacity 440 Mbopd First oil Nov 2019 (expected) WF12505 p05 01.19 Capital Markets Day 2019 Lundin Petroleum 40
Organic growth delivering on our strategy 41
Lundin Petroleum Organic Value Creation through Innovation Subsurface expertise Cutting-edge technology Maximising recovery New reservoirs and plays 0.7 USD/boe Lundin Petroleum finding costs (1) WF12503 p01 01.19 (1)…
Lundin Petroleum Organic Growth Strategy Southeastern Trend Loppa High 7 70% core increase in number exploration of licences from Hammerfest areas Jan 2018 Harstad 7 15 potential exploration new projects wells in…
Lundin Petroleum PL962 PL965 Barents Sea Renewing and Diversifying the Exploration Portfolio PL1027 PL1029 PL533b PL954 PL850 PL952 PL902B PL1023 PL950 PL767B Actively managing and expanding the portfolio PL960 Licensing…
Lundin Petroleum Southern Barents Sea Pipeline of Potential New Projects 7potential new projects Loppa High targeting 105350 MMboe Alta/Gohta net resources (2) 115390 MMboe (1) Hammerfest 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 Harstad…
Southern Barents Sea - Drill Out Lundin Petroleum 4 wells in 2019 Exploration Programme 1.5 Bn boe (1) Norwegian Sea - Drill Out 2 wells in 2019 200 MMboe (1) Alvheim Area Sustain Production 3 wells in 2019 Northern North…
Southern Barents Sea Large underexplored area 120 wildcat wells drilled 7.3 Bn boe yet to find (1) Korpfjell Deep Prospect Wisting 201 MMboe (2) 440 MMbo 5 significant discoveries to date 2.5 Bn boe of commercial resources Gjksen…
Lundin Petroleum At the Forefront of Seismic Innovation Broadband (Utsira High) Topseis (Barents Sea & Utsira High) Topseis 10x increase in data TOPSEIS WF12503 p07 01.19 Developed by Lundin and CGG Capital Markets Day…
Alta/Gohta Pioneering Karstified Carbonate Reservoirs First NCS karstified carbonate reservoir Successful extended well test reduces uncertainty Resource range 115390 MMboe (1) Unchanged EWT & Topseis still being assessed…
Alta Successful EWT Reduces Uncertainty Produced 18,000 bopd EWT well Total volumes 660,000 bbls Limited water/gas Excellent reservoir productivity Large connected volume No compartmentalisation Proves drilling horizontal well…
Alta/Gohta Development Options Operating environment and cost basis similar to Norwegian Sea Development feasibility studies ongoing Re-use/new build options New technology solutions Alta Gohta WF12503 p14 01.19 Capital…
North Sea Exploration Significant Potential Northern North Sea Significant remaining prospectivity Bergen Alvheim Area 4.6 Bn boe yet to find (2) Froskelr Main Gladsheim Continue to build position 92 MMboe (1) Evra/Iving 96…
Grane Utsira High Area Svalin Significant Remaining Potential Hanz JK 243 MMboe (1) Lille Prinsen Appraisal 2019 E&A programme 4 wells Testing 400 MMboe (1) Lille Prinsen appraisal Ivar Aasen 1535 MMboe (1) Jorvik/Tellus…
WF12503 p12 01.19 Net Unrisked Prospective Resources (MMboe) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Gjksen Shallow Capital Markets Day 2019 Pointer / Setter Q1 Froskelr Main Lundin Petroleum Gjksen…
Progressing resources to reserves Pipeline of new projects Significant exploration programme Building and diversifying the portfolio Delivering on our Organic Growth Strategy WF12503 p13 01.19 Capital Markets Day 2019…
2019 Forecast Tax Forecast 2019 Average Brent oil price USD/boe 45.00 60.00 75.00 Current Tax 0.92 -2.04 -9.20 Deferred Tax -16.86 -24.53 -27.99 Total Tax -15.94 -26.57 -37.19 Numbers may not add up due to rounding…
Lundin Petroleum Crude Oil Marketing Established crude oil marketing department in 2015 Objective to maximise value of Lundin Petroleums produced crude Marketing all of Lundin Petroleums crude oil + 3rd party (field partner)…
Lundin Petroleum Crude Oil Marketing E&A expenditure substantially discretionary Lundin Petroleums crude blend well positionned for IMO 2020 Alvheim/Grane/JS crude yields comparison vs benchmark crudes 100% 90% 80% 70%…
Lundin Petroleum Barents Sea 2019 Development Activity 2019 Budget 930 MUSD Utsira High Other Johan Sverdrup Phase 1 Alvheim Area Installation/hook-up Rolvsnes Start-up Drilling Johan Sverdrup Phase 2 Norwegian Sea Luno II…
PL859 Southern Barents Sea Lundin Petroleum PL767 Pointer/Setter Barents Sea 2019 Exploration and Appraisal Activity PL859 Korpfjell Deep PL857 Gjksen Shallow PL857 Gjksen Deep PL609/492 PL857 PL609/492 Alta/Gohta appraisal…
Lundin Petroleum Bank Debt USD 5 billion RBL credit facility with 27 Banks Borrowing Capacity comfortably above the USD 5 billion credit limit No amortizing until mid-2020 with expiry at end 2022 Margin between 200 250 bps;…
Lundin Petroleum Total 2020-2026 CAPEX CAPEX commitments for CAPEX (Base) 2P + Luno II and Rolvsnes EWT 1,000 900 800 700 600 Million USD 500 8.24 400 7.97 300 7.82 200 7.59 100 8.04 0 2019 2020 2021…
Lundin Petroleum Tax Value Tax Value from Historic CAPEX Spend as at 01.01.2019 2 Billion USD (1) 18,000 1,602 15,980 16,000 1,180 14,000 9,476 12,000 Million NOK 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 3,723 2,000 0 CT…
Lundin Petroleum Abandonment Spending New facilities Age of facilities (years) (1) Time to abandonment (years) (1) Low maintenance Capex Low Opex 17 5 15 27 Low near term Abex NCS Lundin NCS Lundin Average Average Low Average…
Lundin Petroleum Free Cash Flow Average E&A spend Brent (2) Annual FCF per annum(4) FCF (Pre-Dividend)(1) 60 USD/bbl(3) 1 Billion USD 250 MUSD 2,000 1,500 Average annual FCF at 75 USD/bbl(3) Million USD 1,000 1,250…
Lundin Petroleum FCF Breakeven FCF (Pre-Dividend) Breakeven (USD/bbl) 55 20 10 2019 Average Average 2020-2022(1) 2023-2026(1) WF12514 p01 01.19 (1) Assumes E&A spend of 250 MUSD per annum Capital Markets Day 2019…
Lundin Petroleum Long-term Financial Outlook(1) 2P Reserves + Luno II + Rolvsnes EWT Average annual FCF 1 Bn USD(2) Sustainable dividends of 500 MUSD to grow over time FCF Breakeven 10-20 USD/bbl Net debt / EBITDA(2) End…
Dividends material and sustainable 77
Lundin Petroleum Updated Dividend Policy 2019 AGM proposal to pay a dividend of MUSD 500 for financial year 2018 Dividend Policy Dividend to be paid quarterly and denominated in USD Maintain or increase dividends over time in…
Concluding remarks Q&A 79
Lundin Petroleum in 2019 Production Sustained Low OPEX 7595 Mboepd 4.25 USD/boe Johan Sverdrup 4 Project Sanctions first oil Nov 2019 Luno II, Rolvsnes EWT, Edvard Grieg infills, Frosk Organic Growth Dividends 2 appraisal…
Long-term 500 MUSD value creation dividend in 2019 Sustainable 1 Bn USD dividends average free cash flow below 50 USD/bbl per year (1) 4 USD/boe industry leading low OPEX 170 Mboepd Targeting by 2023 200 Mboepd + organic…