Investor Day Focus Presentations London, February 2019
Total Energy Outlook 2040
Energy Outlook 2040 Demand fundamentals Key drivers Key outcomes for net energy demand GDP: + 3.3 % p.a. Population: 9 Bn in 2040 Energy demand growth Access to energy: 1 Bn people without access to electricity in 2018…
Energy Outlook 2040 Total presents two scenarios: Momentum and Rupture Momentum Rupture Energy demand based on Anticipating technological breakthroughs and strong shift in public policies Announced policies and regulations Mass…
Momentum scenario: oil demand
Oil demand dominated by transport and petrochemicals Emerging markets underpinning rising demand 2015 global oil* demand Global oil demand %, Mb/d Mb/d Other 12% Light duty Res & Industry vehicles Com 7% 29% 100 Petchems…
Oil demand stagnating for light duty vehicles Growth offset by efficiency gains and EV penetration Oil demand: light duty vehicles* Mb/d Worldwide fleet of cars doubles from 1.1 billion to 2 billion by 2040 50 In developing…
Oil demand growing for heavy duty vehicles Main source of growth for road transportation despite electrification of urban buses & trucks Oil demand: heavy duty vehicles* Mb/d Heavy duty vehicle activity more than doubles 25 +3…
Oil demand growing for petrochemicals Recycling technologies developing rapidly Oil demand: petrochemicals Mb/d 20 +4 Mb/d Demand for plastics grows 2015-40 Rising global prosperity Recycling & Gasoil Increasing urban…
Sustained oil demand Despite EVs, efficiency gains, and substitution Global oil demand Mb/d 190 Demand for mobility remains strong in emerging countries Natural gas is the main alternative to oil Efficiency 130 gains +10…
Oil demand sensitivities 2040 oil demand Mb/d -9 9 Passenger vehicles -3 3 Freight -2 3 +/- 0.5% per year economic growth Marine -1 1 Aviation -1 1 New vehicle -6 6 +/- 33% efficiency gains 70% of sales in 2040…
Regional oil demand is shifting rapidly North America, Europe, & Asia OECD shares decreasing Oil demand: evolution by region* %, Mb/d 100% 19% North America 25% 18% Europe 20% 7% Asia OECD 9% 33% Asia Non-OECD 26% 8%…
Momentum scenario: natural gas demand
Natural gas demand growing in all sectors Power generation and industry pulling-up global natural gas demand 2015 global natural gas demand Global natural gas demand %, Bcm/yr Bcm/yr Transport +1.8% 6,000 per year Residential &…
Power generation Remains 1 driver for natural gas demand through 2040 Natural gas demand: power generation Bcm/yr +1.8% per year Growth spurred by the increase of 2,500 power demand Net Fuel Nat gas switch power-plant…
Strong industrial natural gas demand Natural gas use as an energy source and feedstock Natural gas demand: industry Bcm/yr +2% Growth driven by economic activity per year 1,500 Switch from coal & oil driven by Net fuel…
Slower demand growth in Residential & Commercial Natural gas demand: Res & Com* Bcm/yr +1% per year 1,000 Growth mainly driven by economic activity and increased comfort in households, Net fuel Efficiency switch partially…
Strong LNG demand growth driven by Asia Supportive government policies for natural gas Global LNG demand Global gas balance Bcm/yr Bcm/yr 1,000 +5% Other* 6,000 per year Middle East Europe LNG imports Pipe imports Rest 500…
Natural gas demand sensitivities 2040 natural gas demand Bcm/yr Macro drivers -500 500 -400 +400 Change in +/- 0.5% per year economic growth GDP growth Efficiency drivers -150 +150 Change in +/- 0.1% per year energy…
Momentum scenario: power demand
Power demand growing in all sectors Growing twice as fast as global energy demand 2015 global power demand Global power demand %, TWh/yr TWh/yr 45,000 Transport +2.2% per year Other* 19% Other Transport 44% 24,200 TWh/yr…
Residential & Commercial Accounts for nearly half the growth Power demand: Res & Com TWh/yr +2.3% More people, increased wealth per capita 25,000 per year and service growth Electrification of energy use Efficiency Net fuel…
Electrification will transform industry Power demand: industry TWh/yr +1.9% per year Growth driven by economic activity 20,000 Fuel switching driven by electrification of Fuel switch processes and automation Efficiency…
Power generation: more low carbon electricity Hydrocarbon share of generation falls to half in 2040 2015 global power generation Global power generation %, TWh/yr TWh/yr 45,000 Other +2.2% per year Nuclear Gas 11% Other…
Power demand sensitivities 2040 power demand TWh/yr Macro drivers -3,200 3,200 -3,000 +3,000 Change in +/- 0.5% per year economic growth GDP growth Efficiency drivers -800 +800 Change in +/- 0.1% per year energy efficiency…
Regional weights in power demand shift massively Non-OECD Asia will use more than North America, Europe, & OECD Asia Power demand: evolution by region %, TWh/y 100% 15% North America 22% 16% Europe 22% 5% Asia OECD 8% 48%…
Primary energy demand and CO2 emissions
Momentum scenario: global primary energy demand Gas and renewables outperform global energy demand growth Global primary energy demand CO2 emissions Mboe/d GtCO2/yr +1.0% 45 400 per year Renewables Momentum Nuclear Coal…
Optimized Momentum scenario Adding efficiency and sectorial sensitivities insufficient for a 2C pathway Global primary energy demand CO2 emissions Mboe/d GtCO2/yr +0.8% 45 400 per year Momentum Renewables Nuclear Optimized…
Rupture scenario Technological breakthroughs and strong shift in public policies policies Drivers Impacts Huge energy intensity improvements ( 3%/yr) or 2040 energy consumption similar to 2015 Reduced economic growth Industry,…
A rupture required for a 2C pathway Global primary energy demand CO2 emissions Mboe/d GtCO2/yr 45 400 Momentum Renewables 200 Nuclear Coal Oil Natural Gas Rupture 15 2015 2040 2040 2015 2040 Momentum Rupture IEA…
Integrating climate into strategy
Integrating climate into strategy Taking into account anticipated market trends Global energy demand Mboe/d Focusing on IEA 2C oil projects scenario* with low breakeven 300 Renewables Nuclear Expanding along the Coal…
Further improving efficiency of our operations Over 10% improvement of energy efficiency since 2010 Objectives Energy efficiency: -1% /year 10% reduction achieved* Zero routine flaring by 2030, 80% reduction achieved*…
Growing in natural gas Key to fast climate action 2015-30 LNG demand Mt/y Integrating along the gas value chain 5% CAGR 2nd LNG player, 10% market share Other 500 Middle East Developing B2B and B2C gas marketing 9% CAGR…
Developing a profitable low carbon electricity business 2015-40 electricity generation TWh Low carbon power generation 3 GW current capacity (gas, solar & 40,000 Electricity generation onshore wind) from 37,000 to 43,000 TWh…
Promoting sustainable biofuels Biofuels world consumption Mboe/d 8 Leading European biofuel distributor in 2018 4-6% per year with 2.4 Mt/y 5% SDS per year Entering M&S business in Brazil, a major biofuel market 4 NPS…
Investing in carbon sink businesses CO2 volume capture as per IEA SDS scenario Gt/y Carbon sinks mandatory to reach zero net emissions by second half of the century 6 Natural sinks Investing in preservation of forests, mangrove…
GHG emissions: from our operations to our sales Production Transformation Sales Oil Refining Oil products Liquefaction LNG Gas Pipe Gas Renewables CCGT Electricity Solar panels, Batteries Our accountability: Emissions…
Our accountability: reducing emissions from our operations 15% reduction of our GHG emissions (scope 1+2) between 2015 and 2025 2015-25 Scope 1 & 2 emissions from operated facilities by E&P + RC + M&S Mt/y 46 -15% CH4…
Our ambition: strategy contributing to tackle climate change Reducing the carbon intensity of our energy sales Carbon intensity: weighted average of lifecycle* emissions of energy products sold Base 100 in 2015 (75 gCO2/kbtu)…
Total, the Responsible Energy Major International Leadership on ESG & climate actions Annually reporting since 2016 Integrating climate into Oil & Gas Climate Initiative our strategy and Climate Investments fund Supports TCFD…
Loading...
