Skip to main content The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC Investor Presentation | Shale Experts
Loading...
Pm

The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Wells Fargo Securities LLC · Aug 12, 2019 · 21 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 1
    The U.S. Economic Outlook Jay H. Bryson, Managing Director and Acting Chief Economist August 12, 2019
  2. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 2
    U.S. Real GDP U.S. Real GDP Bars = Compound Annual Rate Line = Yr/Yr % Change 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% Real GDP growth in the United 0% 0% States has slowed over the past -2% -2% few quarters -4% -4% -6% -6%…
  3. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 3
    Real PCE Growth Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Bars = SAAR Line = Yr/Yr % Change 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% Real PCE jumped in Q2, but it 0% 0% has generally decelerated over the past few quarters -2% -2% -4% -4%…
  4. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 4
    U.S. Real Exports Real U.S. Exports and Imports Year-over-Year Percent Change of 3-Month Moving Average 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% Export growth has downshifted 0% 0% in recent quarters -10% -10% -20% -20% Exports:…
  5. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 5
    U.S. Goods Exports U.S. Goods Exports Year-over-Year Percent Change in 3-Month Moving Average 60% 60% World, Ex-China: Jun -1.8% 50% China: Jun -18.2% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% U.S. export growth to China has 10% 10%…
  6. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 6
    Business Fixed Investment Real Business Fixed Investment Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr % Change 30% 30% Business Fixed Investment: Q2 -0.6% Business Fixed Investment: Q2 2.7% 20% 20% 10% 10% Growth in business fixed…
  7. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 7
    U.S. Nonfarm Employment Change U.S. Nonfarm Employment Change Change in Employment, In Thousands 400 400 Monthly Change: Jul 164K 12-Month Average Change: Jul 187K 350 350 300 300 250 250 Employment growth 200 200…
  8. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 8
    Household Debt-to-Income Ratio U.S. Household Debt to Disposable Income Household Debt/After-Tax Income, Percent 130% 130% 120% 120% 110% 110% 100% 100% The household sector has de-levered over the past decade 90% 90%…
  9. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 9
    Financial Obligations Ratio Household Financial Obligations Ratio Percent of Disposable Personal Income 18.5% 18.5% Total FOR: Q1 15.4% 18.0% 18.0% 17.5% 17.5% 17.0% 17.0% The financial obligations ratio 16.5% 16.5% for…
  10. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 10
    Interest Coverage Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio EBIT/Net Interest Expense 9.0 9.0 Interest Coverage Ratio: Q1 4.77 8.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 Non-financial businesses generally have ample ability to 4.0 4.0…
  11. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 11
    Assumptions Trade War Assumptions The United States recently announced 10% tariffs on 300 billion worth of imports from China. We assume that these tariffs go into effect on September 1, but they are not raised further…
  12. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 12
    Real GDP Forecast U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change 10% 10% GDP - CAGR: Q2 2.1% 8% GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q2 2.3% 8% 6% 6% Forecast 4% 4% Our forecast looks for the 2% 2% economic expansion to…
  13. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 13
    PCE Inflation PCE Deflator & Core PCE Deflator Year-over-Year Percent Change 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% Forecast 2% 2% Rates of consumer price inflation currently stand below 1% 1% the Feds target 0% 0% -1% -1% PCE…
  14. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 14
    Fed Funds Target Rate Federal Funds Target Rate Upper Bound, Percent 7.0% 7.0% Federal Funds: Q2 2.50% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% We look for the FOMC to cut 4.0% 4.0% rates by another 25 bps at the September FOMC meeting…
  15. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 15
    Risks Upside & Downside Risks to Trade Policy Assumption Trade deal reached between U.S. and China BFI accelerates and economic outlook improves Case for Fed easing no longer as compelling U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese…
  16. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 16
    Global Indicators World Export & IP Volume Year-over-Year Percent Change 25% 25% World Export Volume: May 0.4% 20% World Industrial Production: May 1.2% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% The pace of global economic activity has…
  17. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 17
    Eurozone GDP Growth Eurozone GDP Growth Bars = CAGR Lines = Yr/Yr Percent Change 8% 8% Eurozone GDP CAGR: Q2 0.8% 6% Eurozone GDP Yr/Yr: Q2 1.1% 6% 4% 4% Forecast 2% 2% We forecast that the economic 0% 0% expansion in…
  18. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 18
    China GDP China Real GDP Growth Year-over-Year Percent Change 16% 16% 14% Forecast 14% 12% 12% 10% 10% We look for further gradual deceleration in the Chinese 8% 8% economy 6% 6% 4% 4% China Real GDP Growth: Q2…
  19. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 19
    Oil Production & Prices The combination of surging oil production in the United States and below-trend global GDP growth should keep WTI in a 50/barrel and 60/barrel range U.S. Oil Production: All-Time Highs Global GDP Growth…
  20. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 20
    Risks What Else Could Go Wrong U.S. Government and/or Business Debt Brexit/Europe Debt crisis in China Geopolitical Shocks Economics 20
  21. The US Economic Outlook – Wells Fargo Securities LLC – slide 21
    Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group Economists & Macro Strategists Economic Analysts Jay H. Bryson, Acting Chief Economist jay.brysonwellsfargo.com Shannon Seery, Economic Analyst shannon.seerywellsfargo.com Mark Vitner, Senior…

From the store

Browse maps, data & reports in the Shale Experts store