Key Takeaways 1 Demand for NGL products across sectors is expected to grow 23% from 2018- 2022 driven by petrochemical buildout and export demand. Rising living standards in developing countries, particularly Asian, create an…
The Impact of the U.S. Shale Revolution The Shale Revolution dramatically changed the NGL landscape, turning the U.S. into a net exporter after decades of importing NGL products U.S. NGL Production (MBbl/d) U.S. NGL Exports /…
Propane Market Fundamentals Current propane days of supply are still 5% below the 5-year average despite the recent increase due to continued strength in exports and domestic demand Propane Days of Supply (Days) U.S. Propane…
C3+ NGLs: Absolute & Relative Price Improvement A lack of sufficient export capacity has driven down Mont Belvieu prices on an absolute price and relative to WTI basis. This is expected to improve as new export expansion capacity…
U.S. NGL Supply Growth by Region (C3+) C3+ NGL supply growth driven by low cost basins such as the Permian and Appalachia Bakken Supply Forecasted Growth 2018-2022 (MBbl/d) 1,500 1,000 500 +35% BAKKEN/ 31 70 MBbl/d WILLISTON 0…
U.S. NGL Demand Growth NGL demand growth driven primarily by increased exports of LPG (propane/butane) C3+ Demand Growth by Sector (MMBbl/d) U.S. C3+ Demand - 2022 4.5 4.0 3.5 Petrochemical 3.0 13% MMBbl/d Exports…
LPG Export Capacity: Unconstrained Outlook Current high utilization rates prompted next round of buildout of LPG export capacity, resulting in unconstrained exports after 4Q19 U.S. Gulf Coast LPG Exports vs. Capacity (MBbl/d)…
Global LPG Demand Growth Absorbs Supply Growth U.S. LPG export growth expected to be 12x Middle East LPG export growth from 2018- 2021 due to OPEC cuts and LPG products kept in the Middle East LPG Import/Export Growth by Region…
Global LPG Demand Growth Absorbs Supply Growth Res/comm demand drives growth in developing nations while petrochemical demand continues to increase in more developed countries. LPG Total Demand Growth by Region (MBbl/d) Europe…
LPG Exports US exports are projected to surpass the entire Middle East region in 2019 LPG Exports: US versus Middle East US is the incremental 1400 supplier for growing world demand. 1200 1000 MBbl/d 800 Supply from…
U.S. Exports Adjusting to Trade Flow Changes The U.S. continues to play an integral role along with the Middle East of supplying the increasing demand from China and other Asian countries LPG Exports to Asia U.S. Only LPG Exports to…
Appalachia: Geographic & Infrastructure NGL Advantaged Permian, Rockies, Mid-Continent & Bakken Appalachia Transport Y-grade for out-of-basin fractionation at Mont In-basin fractionation Belvieu and Conway Transport marketable purity…
C3+ NGLs: Northeast Market Dynamics and Supply Anteros C3+ differential to Mont Belvieu is expected to improve with the Mariner East 2 export takeaway and ability to access international markets Northeast C3+ NGL Supply Northeast C3+…
LPG: Marcus Hook vs. U.S. Gulf Coast Shipping Marcus Hook export facility in Appalachia is geographically advantaged for Northwest Europe cargos and at parity with Gulf Coast for Asia cargos LPG Shipping Routes and 2019 Propane…
LPG: Northeast Supply & Demand Northeast LPG markets became oversupplied in 2015 and were forced to transport via rail, which was relieved by Mariner East 2 Northeast LPG NGL Supply vs. Demand & Takeaway Capacity (Excluding Rail)…
Ethane: Northeast Market Dynamics & Supply Anteros ethane has a natural gas value pricing floor; pricing improvements from additional petrochemical and takeaway demand is all Upside 200 MBbl/d of ethane current rejected in Northeast…
Anteros First Ethane Export November 2018 Anteros 11,500 Bpd C2 sales contract with Borealis commenced on November 1, 2018 First ship departed Marcus Hook on November 26th with 337,000 barrels of ethane bound for Borealis steam…
Ethane: Significant Demand Growth On Horizon Incremental U.S. Ethylene Plant Demand MBbl/d of 900 MBbl/d Ethane of incremental ethane demand from 2016 to 2021 1200 1000 900 First Wave 800 747 153 Ethylene crackers under…
Ethane: Export Market Pulls Barrels Overseas The ethane market continues to develop and creates opportunities for ethane sales outside of the domestic cracker pool Ethane Export Suppliers and Customers Europe Borealis Marcus…
Summary Appalachian producer advantage and inelastic international LPG demand underappreciated by the market 130% increase in LPG export capacity from 2015-2020 allows U.S. domestic supply to reach global markets U.S. NGL…
Appendix
Natural Gas Liquids Primer Natural Gas Liquids NGLs are contained in the rich natural gas stream, but after processing, condense into liquid form for storage, shipping and consumption Purity Products Y-Grade De- Ethane Ethane*…
Natural Gas Liquids Primer NGLs play an essential role in the domestic and international industrial, residential, commercial and transportation industries Gas Linked Pricing Crude Linked Pricing Iso- Methane Ethane Propane Butane…
Global PDH Buildouts China New Build PDH plants Est. Propane Demand (Mb/d) In-Service Date Zhejiang Satellite 18 In-service Shenzhen Juzhengyuan, Guandong (South) 24 In-service Hengli Petrochemical, Dalian (East) 10 3Q2019 Fujian…
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