IMO 2020 Reinhard Gross Refining & Petrochemicals Head of End-to-End Planning Vienna October 10, 2019 OMV Downstream
Disclaimer This report contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terms such as outlook, expect, anticipate, target, estimate, goal, plan, intend, may, objective, will and similar terms…
The IMO will implement the worldwide sulphur cap regulations in the beginning of 2020 Timeline for enforcement of new emission limits Sulphur content % 5.0 Global cap 1 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Global limit is to be 2.5 enforced in 2020 2.0 ECA…
Options to be compliant for shippers Install scrubbers MFO 1 0.5% (VLSFO) Marine gasoil (MGO) LNG Pros Continued use of HSFO Use of only MFO 0.5% Available on the market Direct solution to sulfur cap Payback time expected No investment…
Overall compliance will be around 80-90% in 2020 Assumed compliance by region in 2020 Forecast compliance by ship size % % 2025 100 100 Very large 95 Large 80 90 60 Medium 85 Small 40 80 75 20 70 0 65 Europa Asia North Rest…
Compliance in 2020 is expected to be achieved by a shift towards low sulphur marine fuels Global marine bunkers by fuel % Initially expected a strong call on gasoil, resulting in a significant increase in the consumption of 0.5 %…
Volume of scrubbed HSFO is expected to grow steadily after 2020 Outlook for scrubber installations Scrubbed fuel oil by regional market Source: Chart obtained from Product Market Service, a product of Wood Mackenzie. Source: Chart…
Market outlook for crude grades Crude grades World crude production by qualities SWEET light /medium Sahara Blend (Algeria) Heavy & Sour Heavy & Sweet WTI (USA) 9% 2% Heavy & Medium Sour Medium & Sweet 2% 9% SWEET heavy Bow River…
Market outlook for sour/sweet differentials Crude differentials to Brent, 2015-2025 A weaker HSFO crack would result in heavier sour crudes, becoming less attractive in the short run The effect could be dampened in the mid- to…
Market outlook for gasoil/middle distillates Gasoil crack outlook USD/t 180 150 120 90 Global prices for middle distillates are expected to 60 rise ahead of January and remain high until refiners shift production to make more of the…
Market outlook for HSFO/LSFO HSFO crack outlook USD/t 0 HSFO will need to be priced lower relative to crude 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 to encourage increased upgrading and compete in -100 other markets…
Market outlook for MFO 0.5% MFO 0.5 % crack outlook USD/t 80 The price for MFO 0.5% expected to rise in 2020 and decline 40 Consultants range afterwards due to scrubber usage 0 MFO 0.5% expected to displace the remaining LSFO market…
OMV has a coking capacity of 50 kboe/d across its three-refinery system Hamburg 3 refining sites = 1 integrated refinery concept Burghausen Petrobrazi Munich Schwechat Vienna Trieste Koper Bucharest Constanta OMV…
Flexible crude intake in OMV refineries Sources of processed crude oil 2018 Processed crude oil quality 2018 Austria Others 4% Heavy 13% Iraq Romania 4% 21% Russia 4% Azerbaijan 6% Medium 21% Light 27% Kazakhstan…
Excellently positioned for IMO 2020 among European refiners Integrated refinery yield 1 Heavy fuel oil yield (%) 2018, % OMV vs European refineries 4 2017 13% Petrochemicals 9% 18%…
OMV to benefit from the widening of the spread between fuel oil and middle distillates No investment required Positioned to capture significant upside Middle Heavy fuel No refinery Balanced distillate yield oil yield turnaround…
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