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1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited

Banpu Public Company Limited · May 14, 2019 · 61 slides

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Slides

  1. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 1
    1Q19 results Investor and analyst update 14th May 2019
  2. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 2
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  3. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 3
    DISCLAIMER The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your reference. This presentation contains forward-looking statements that relate to future events, which are, by their nature, subject to significant risks…
  4. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 4
    1 Focus: US Gas 2 Financial Summary 3 Energy Resources Coal Gas 4 Energy Generation 5 Energy Technology 6 Key Takeaways 4
  5. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 5
    Gas second-fastest growing primary energy WORLD ENERGY DEMAND 2017 VS 2040* GLOBAL SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY REGION Unit: Btoe Unit: bcf/d 17.7 New shale supply expected +1.6 Btoe to come mainly from U.S. 3.6 +2.6% 14.0 CAGR…
  6. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 6
    Gas price outlook LAST 6 MONTHS or 4Q18 2019 OUTLOOK Strong demand and tight supply Strong production growth, despite continued to drive gas price increasing demand DEMAND DRIVERS DEMAND DRIVERS Strong summer 2018 power Summer power…
  7. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 7
    US natural gas value chain SUPPLY DEMAND PRODUCTION TRANSMISSION END-USERS 33 Tcf 2018 natural gas demand by sector 32% Power plants Main line sales 31% Industrials/ petrochemical Residential/ 24% Commercial (Heating)…
  8. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 8
    US gas sector US NATURAL GAS FLOWS AND PRODUCTION OUTLOOK Unit: Tcf 2015 production 2040e production Supply Others NORTHWEST Natural gas production growth in 1.0 the U.S. is largely driven by the Marcellus Northeast; c.75% of new…
  9. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 9
    US: expanding infrastructure to support demand growth GAS PIPELINE CAPACITY OUT OF NORTHEAST STATES US LNG EXPORT TERMINALS CAPACITY GROWTH Unit: Bcf/d Unit: Bcf/d 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013…
  10. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 10
    Banpu Gas business strengthening our portfolio ENERGY RESOURCES ENERGY GENERATION ENERGY TECHNOLOGY COAL CONVENTIONAL SMART POWER ENERGY OIL & GAS RENEWABLE PROPRIETARY POWER TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT Greener and smarter…
  11. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 11
    Banpu Gas: continuous portfolio growth 2013-2015 2016 - 2018 2019 -2020 Cumulative acquisitions (US M) 112 M 522 M 1 Bn Ebitda (USM) 101 M 8 M 25 M FEASIBILITY FIRST ACQUISITION FULL CONTRIBUTION PORTFOLIO EXPANSION…
  12. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 12
    Banpu Gas: value as an operator KEY DEVELOPMENT BENEFITS ESTABLISHED Greater control and US FIELD OFFICE financial management Facilitate asset operations Ability to manage pace of for sustainable growth development and focus of…
  13. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 13
    Experienced Banpu Gas team CHRISTOPHER JOSEPH KATHLEEN ETHAN MATTHEW KALNIN DAVIS NEUHEARDT NGO JOHNSON CEO/ Co-Founder COO/ Partner VP Finance & Controller SVP Engineering VP Corporate / Partner / Partner Development/…
  14. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 14
    Banpu Gas: established systems and infrastructure Drilling operations Fracking operations Drilling Operations P&G Warehouse Pad Fracking Operations Mirabelli Pad Wellhead Compressor station Natural gas well heads on well pad…
  15. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 15
    Banpu Gas business strategy RESERVES/ PRODUCTION Ramp up existing portfolio production volume and improve reserves life with effective production development program MARGIN Enhance efficiencies and cost efficiencies through use of…
  16. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 16
    1 Focus: US Gas 2 Financial Summary 3 Energy Resources Coal Gas 4 Energy Generation 5 Energy Technology 6 Key Takeaways 16
  17. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 17
    Banpu consolidated sales revenues USD million -30% QoQ +0% YoY 1,003 Others* 35 +14% QoQ 52 699 +74% YoY 700 43 Power +7% QoQ -14% YoY 23 285 40 65 Gas 56 -18% QoQ 26 36 +36% YoY 214 143 Coal Australia Others* -50%…
  18. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 18
    Banpu consolidated coal gross margin 1Q19: 27% AUSTRALIA COAL INDONESIA COAL USD million USD million Australia coal Indonesia coal gross margin: 8% gross margin: 35% 588 425 372 285 214 143 39% 42% 35% 28% 21% 8% 1Q18…
  19. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 19
    Banpu consolidated EBITDA USD million -34% QoQ +1% YoY 351 28 231 227 36 Power +80% QoQ 66 -2% YoY 50 Gas 51 24 -24% QoQ +90% YoY 14 28 Coal Australia 36 -14% QoQ Power 57 +60% YoY Gas 26 198 Coal China Coal…
  20. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 20
    Banpu consolidated NPAT 1Q18 NET PROFIT AFTER TAX 1Q19 NET PROFIT AFTER TAX USD million Non-recurring items: USD million Hongsa court case (85.9M) 227 Gain on O&G Acquisition 24.5M FX loss USD:THB (33.0M) Power 51 (61) Other non…
  21. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 21
    Banpu consolidated financial position 1Q19 CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL POSITION DEBT FX STRUCTURE GEARING RATIOS USD million Net debt / Equity 1 (x) CASH EQUIVALENT THB 0.99x 1.07x 1.07x 657 Float AUD 8% Float TOTAL 4% BORROWINGS…
  22. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 22
    1 Focus: US Gas 2 Financial Summary 3 Energy Resources Coal Gas 4 Energy Generation 5 Energy Technology 6 Key Takeaways 22
  23. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 23
    Global coal demand trends: 2019 vs 2018 CHANGE COMMENTS 2019-18 (Mt) Mild weather and slow economic growth damper demand CHINA -15 Domestic coal production improves. Import restriction will persist to protect domestic coal…
  24. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 24
    Global coal supply trends: 2019 vs 2018 CHANGE COMMENTS 2019-18 (Mt) Almost all producers plan to increase production but mostly LCV coal INDONESIA +7 Government regulations such as DMO remain challenge Export growth will be…
  25. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 25
    Banpu group coal sales 2019e COAL SALES* SOURCE DESTINATION ANALYSIS 2019e GLOBAL COAL SALES* 2019e BY REGION 13.5 Mt 5.1 1.7 Others 7.5 Mt 10% Japan India 16% 6.7 2.0 5% 1.4 Mt 0.8 Thailand Korea 0.6 5.5 3% 3% CHINA S…
  26. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 26
    Banpu coal sales pricing status AUSTRALIA COAL INDONESIA COAL 2019e 2019e Unsold 8% Unsold Unpriced Fixed 22% 12% Domestic 14.2* 47% 28.0* 46% Mt Mt Fixed 22% 32% Indexed Indexed 10% Fixed Export OUR WAY IN…
  27. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 27
    Banpu ASPs vs thermal coal benchmark prices BANPU ASP VS BENCHMARK PRICES COMMENTS Monthly NEX Unit: US/t; A/t for CEY 200 1Q19 ASP weaker for both ITM, and CEY 150 shadow the global coal price movement 100 50 ITM ASP: US71.5/t*…
  28. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 28
    Australia coal: operational summary 2019e OUTPUT (ROM EQUITY BASIS) QUARTERLY OUTPUT (ROM EQUITY BASIS) COAL OUTPUT (Mt)1 -41% QoQ 2019e Output: 12.7 Mt CV: 6,700 kcal/kg2 -21% YoY 3.4 3.2 Newcastle 2.6 NCIG 2.0 Airly PWCS…
  29. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 29
    Australia coal: financial summary FINANCIAL SUMMARY Comments Unit: A M 1Q19 4Q18 QoQ 1Q18 YoY Continuing strong ASP with stable domestic prices and export prices benefiting from a Sales (Mt) 2.0 3.8 47% 2.9 30% lower A exchange rate…
  30. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 30
    Indonesia coal: operational summary 2019e OUTPUT (SALEABLE TONNE BASIS) QUARTERLY OUTPUT (100% BASIS) 2019e target: 23.6 Mt COAL OUTPUT (Mt) -9% QoQ CV: 5950 - 6250 kcal/kg* +41% YoY East Kalimantan Indominco 12.5 Mt 6.4…
  31. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 31
    Indonesia coal: financial summary FINANCIAL SUMMARY Comments Unit: US M 1Q19 4Q18 QoQ 1Q18 YoY In 1Q19 coal price continue lower than Sales (Mt) 6.0 7.4 19% 4.4 36% 4Q18 due to weak demand as a result of slowing economy in China ASP…
  32. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 32
    China and Mongolia coal summary CHINA COAL 2019 PRODUCTION* GAOHE OPERATIONAL UPDATES Unit: Mt ROM Gaohe Stable production with continued focus on safety 2019 target: 11.4 Mt Sales in Q1 slides down mainly due to Chinese MONGOLIA 2.7…
  33. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 33
    1 Focus: US Gas 2 Financial Summary 3 Energy Resources Coal Gas 4 Energy Generation 5 Energy Technology 6 Key Takeaways 33
  34. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 34
    U.S. gas market update AVERAGE HENRY HUB PRICE AS OF 15 APR-19 U.S. TOTAL NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION Unit: US/MMBTU Unit: Bcf/d 5.00 Forecast 4.65 120 4.50 4.25 110 4.00 100 2018 average 90 3.50 3.07 80 3.00 70 60 2.50…
  35. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 35
    Gas business 1Q19 performance Strong year-on-year improvement despite lower sale volume supported by attractive net price and higher midstream revenue SALES VOLUMES TOTAL REALIZED REVENUE EBITDA Unit: Bcf 1 Unit: USM Unit: USM…
  36. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 36
    Banpu performance in-line with Marcellus top producers Banpus operational performance and profitability are in-line with top 6 gas producers in Marcellus area despite smaller production volume 2018 CASH OPERATING COSTS1 2018 CASH…
  37. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 37
    1 Focus: US Gas 2 Financial Summary 3 Energy Resources Coal Gas 4 Energy Generation 5 Energy Technology 6 Key Takeaways 37
  38. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 38
    Banpu Power 1Q19: conventional power THAILAND LAOS CHINA BLCP Hongsa China CHP Resume normal operation with Completed its yearly maintenance of Continue high demand during winter strong and consistent reliability unit 1 for 18…
  39. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 39
    Banpu Power 1Q19 : renewable power 80 MW CHINA JAPAN VIETNAM China Solar Japan Solar Vietnam Wind Better weather condition result in Slightly increase in capacity factor Completed Feasibility study of phase higher irradiation,…
  40. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 40
    1 Focus: US Gas 2 Financial Summary 3 Energy Resources Coal Gas 4 Energy Generation 5 Energy Technology 6 Key Takeaways 40
  41. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 41
    BPIN partnership with Bhiraj Buri: sustainable office BPIN to install 317 kWp solar rooftops in Summer Lasalle project, becoming a pioneer of the sustainable office concept Project aims to pioneer sustainable office concept by…
  42. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 42
    1 Focus: US Gas 2 Financial Summary 3 Energy Resources Coal Gas 4 Energy Generation 5 Energy Technology 6 Key Takeaways 42
  43. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 43
    Key takeaways Q1 2019 GROUP EBITDA COAL EBITDA 1.0 BN CUMULATIVE STABLE AT US231 M -5% YOY GAS INVESTMENT Consolidated EBITDA US153 M coal EBITDA, Continue to expand Gas +1% YoY; strong slight decrease YoY; portfolio with…
  44. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 44
    APPENDIX 44
  45. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 45
    China: weak demand amid supply restriction CHINA THERMAL COAL IMPORTS/EXPORTS* Unit: Mt QUARTERLY (ANNUALIZED) ANNUAL 1Q19 Weak demand due to mild winter and Chinese New Year holiday. IMPORT Coal demand in cement and general…
  46. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 46
    India: reliance on imports grew INDIA THERMAL COAL IMPORTS* Unit: Mt QUARTERLY (ANNUALIZED) ANNUAL 1Q19 Seasonally slow demand growth and improved performance from hydro and renewables, demand for coal-based generation declined 1%.…
  47. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 47
    Regional thermal coal market: 2019e vs 2018 +6 RUSSIA USA EUROPE CHINA +3 OTHER N. ASIA -7 -9 OTHERS -15 -4 +7 +7 +21 INDIA COLOMBIA INDONESIA -1 SOUTH AFRICA +2 OTHERS * -1 Unit: Mt AUSTRALIA SUPPLY ATLANTIC…
  48. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 48
    Coal quarterly output summary Mines CV (kcal/kg)* 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19e Western operations 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 Springvale 6,700 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 Clarence 6,700 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Airly 6,700 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 Northern operations 1.4 2.4 0.9 1.9…
  49. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 49
    Indonesia coal gross margin 1Q19 : 35% USD million 588 425 271 372 199 170 157 39% 95 87 65 42% 61% 58 35% 31% 57 40% 52% 24 15 28% 14 18 18 15 48% 46% 49% 53% 43% 50% 49% 26% 15% 1% 51% 1Q184Q181Q19…
  50. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 50
    Natural gas : reserve and production term Reserve Production DEFINITION PRODUCTION UNIT Natural Gas Reserve Definitions in the US are In the US, production is measured in 1000 cubic defined by the SEC and are the same as used…
  51. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 51
    Gas business: 2019 indicative guidance ILLUSTRATIVE AND INDICATIVE ONLY UNIT GUIDANCE (US/ MCF) COMMENTS REVENUE Average differential to Henry 0.5-0.8 Difference selling points and (NYMEX basis) and Hub Henry Hub Pipeline revenue…
  52. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 52
    Key external and corporate events US-China agreed to 90- BoT Fed increased BoT maintains First trading day INDIRECT day postpone of any increased policy rate to policy rate at after election, SET new tariffs in trade war…
  53. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 53
    Fx impact analysis guidance on P&L CURRENCY NPAT IMPACT 1Q19 APPROXIMATE FX NPAT 5% SENSITIVITY 2Q19 EXPOSURE (USM) EXPOSURE (USM) (USM) NET LIABILITY NET ASSET Assuming 5% depreciation of local currencies against USD BOT forecast…
  54. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 54
    Banpu group EBITDA breakdown 290 310 351 231 USD million & holding companies 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 100% 68% 79% AACI OVERHEAD U.S. SHALE GAS AUD mil 170 110 101 96 132 73 66 36 51 65 37 50 27 24 28 -1 -1 -1 -1 28 2Q18 3Q18…
  55. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 55
    Banpu group net debt breakdown USD million Consolidated 3,508 3,456 3,407 3,437 NOT consolidated & holding Net debt companies Net cash 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 100% AUSTRALIA COAL 68% INDONESIA COAL 79% POWER AUD mil 683…
  56. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 56
    Banpu consolidated : operating profit USD million 1Q19 4Q18 1Q18 QoQ% YoY% Total sales revenues* 699 1,003 700 -30% 0% 575 879 588 -35% -2% 36 43 26 -18% 37% 56 52 65 7% -14% Cost of sales (506) (655) (468) Gross Profit* 193 348…
  57. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 57
    Banpu consolidated : operating profit USD million 1Q19 4Q18 1Q18 QoQ% YoY% Gross Profit 193 348 232 -45% -17% GPM 28% 35% 33% SG&A (83) (99) (67) Royalty (61) (85) (58) Income from associates 62 43 62 Other income and Dividend 52 16 7…
  58. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 58
    Banpu consolidated : net profit USD million 1Q19 4Q18 1Q18 QoQ% YoY% EBIT 164 212 167 -22% -1% Interest expenses (45) (44) (40) Financial expenses (1) (0) (1) Income tax (core business) (32) (30) (27) Minorities (21) (23) (23) Net…
  59. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 59
    Centennial : Income statement USD million 1Q19 4Q18 1Q18 QoQ% YoY% Sales volume (Mt) 2.0 3.8 2.9 -47% -30% Sales revenue 146.7 286.4 216.5 -49% -32% Cost of Sales (135.4) (209.1) (171.4) Gross Profit 11.2 77.3 45.2 -85% -75% GPM 8% 28%…
  60. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 60
    Australia coal: quarterly equity rom output Total equity ROM (Mt) PLANNED ACTUAL (INDICATIVE ONLY) 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.2 NORTHERN 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.4 0.9 WESTERN…
  61. 1Q 2019 Earnings Presentation – Banpu Public Company Limited – slide 61

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