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Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp.

Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. · Oct 29, 2014 · 56 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 1
    Canadian Energy Research Institute Natural Gas Liquids in North America 2014 Update: Part V Peter Howard President and CEO Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day October 29, 2014 Relevant Independent…
  2. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 2
    Canadian Energy Research Institute Overview Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, non- profit research institute specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental…
  3. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 3
    CERI Reports North American Natural Gas Pathways: The Story North American Natural Gas Pathways: The BC Story The Canadian Forecast: LNG Tsunami The Canadian Forecast: Narrative Comparison Natural Gas Liquids: United States…
  4. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 4
    The Canadian Energy Research Institutes Newly Released and Forthcoming Studies Relevant Independent Objective 4 www.ceri.ca
  5. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 5
    North American Natural Gas Pathways: The Story Relevant Independent Objective 5 www.ceri.ca
  6. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 6
    North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways Driving Forces LNG Exports Power Access to From North Generation Capital America Demand Residential & Commercial North American Demand Economy Environmental Transportation Concerns &…
  7. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 7
    North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways US Natural Gas Utilization for Power Generation by Narrative 60,000 Natural Gas Requirements for Power Generation 50,000 Jan-Jul 2014, Natural gas used for 40,000 Power…
  8. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 8
    North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways LNG Tsunami: US LNG Exports Forecast 18,000 LNG Exports 16,000 14,000 12,000 LNG Export Volume (mmcf/day) Start Construction Jordan Cove ** Trains 1+2 10,000 2015 Oregon LNG…
  9. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 9
    Canadian West Coast LNG Export Projects in Development Kitimat LNG (Chevron, Apache) 1.4 Bcf/d Permits received (including Export License); awaiting investment decision BC LNG Export Co-operative 17 Projects on the West Coast 0.125…
  10. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 10
    Gulf of Mexico 5 Canada 0 Relevant Independent Objective 10 www.ceri.ca
  11. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 11
    North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways Reference Case: LNG Export Potential to the Pacific Basin 60 BC LNG Projects Lower 48 2 Projects (AFID) Sabine Pass (UC) Up to 3.2 bcf/day 50 Freeport (UC Q4 2014) Maybe Cameron LNG (UC Q4…
  12. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 12
    North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways WCSB Export Volumes: LNG Tsunami 9,000 8,000 7,000 Delivered Volume (mmcf/day) 6,000 Export Pipeline Note: 5,000 volumes will decline Alliance Pipeline holds its volume by 4.8…
  13. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 13
    North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways Canada Pipeline Net Exports Perhaps surprisingly, Nowhere Fast shows the highest exports of gas from Canada to the US. 2013: Net Canadian Natural gas exports = 1,935 bcf/yr Gas has little…
  14. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 14
    North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways Alberta New Well Forecast 14,000 12,000 Alberta New Gas Licences 2014 = 2100 10,000 New Well Drilling 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 PIA areas 9,10,13,15,14 PIA areas…
  15. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 15
    North American Natural Gas Pathways: The BC Story Relevant Independent Objective 15 www.ceri.ca
  16. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 16
    2013 Gas Directed Licences 1 Montney :AB (277) Montney :BC (754) 2 Wilrich (125) 3 Milk River (113) 4 Glauconitic (97) 5 Duvernay (88) 6 Falher (86) 7 Bluesky (56) 8 Notikewan (50) Relevant Independent Objective 16 www.ceri.ca
  17. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 17
    CERI Canadian New Well Licences (Jan-Oct 15, 2014) Alberta: British Columbia New Gas Well Licences = 1559 New Gas Well Licences = 864 Top Formation Targets Top Formation Targets Montney (21%) Montney (87%) Duvernay (11%) Doig…
  18. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 18
    Progress Energy Drilling Area Prince Rupert Gas Transmission 2.0 Bcf/day Pacific North-West LNG 1.6 Bcf/day Prince Rupert Shell Drilling area Relevant Independent Objective 18 www.ceri.ca
  19. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 19
    British Columbia LNG: Now Never or Later, Update 2014 Pacific Northwest Energy LNG Project: Progress Energy Field Development Profile 700 7000 1100 Wells need 7360 additional Raw Gas Production Volume (MMcf/day) 650 6500 to be…
  20. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 20
    North American Pacific Northwest NGLProgress LNG Project Pathways Energy project metrics: 1100 wells (2014-2018) LNG Upstream Exports: 42Pacific Northwest + Billion CDN 7360 LNG wells (2019-2038) Pipeline 6.5 billion CDN Gathering…
  21. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 21
    North American NGL Pathways Producer Options: LNG Exports (Pacific Northwest LNG) BUT Where Are All Those NGLs Going Alberta Market (AECO) Edmonton Diluent Edmonton Butane LNG Hot Gas Edmonton Propane LNG AB Ethane Market LPG…
  22. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 22
    North American Natural Gas Pathways: The BC Story Part 2 Relevant Independent Objective 22 www.ceri.ca
  23. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 23
    Progress Energy Drilling Area Shell Drilling area LNG Canada Kitimat 1.6 Bcf/day initial 3.2 Bcf/day ultimate Coastal GasLink 1.7 Bcf/day initial 3.2 Bcf/day ultimate Relevant Independent Objective 23 www.ceri.ca
  24. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 24
    North American NGL Pathways Producer Options: LNG/LPG Exports (LNG Canada: Deep cut Plant) Alberta Market (AECO) Edmonton Diluent Edmonton Butane LNG Hot Gas Edmonton Propane LNG AB Ethane Market LPG (Butane) Methanol LPG…
  25. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 25
    The Canadian Forecast LNG Tsunami Narrative Relevant Independent Objective 25 www.ceri.ca
  26. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 26
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V Western Canada Raw Gas Forecast (by Narrative) 26,000 Raw Gas Production (mmcf/day) 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 6 bcf/day swing by…
  27. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 27
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V Western Canada Raw Gas Forecast (LNG Tsunami wo LNG) 26,000 WCSB Raw Natural Gas Production Forecast 24,000 22,000 20,000 Raw Natural Gas Production (mmcf/day)…
  28. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 28
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V Western Canada Raw Gas Forecast (LNG Tsunami with LNG) 26,000 WCSB Raw Natural Gas Production Forecast 24,000 22,000 20,000 Raw Natural Gas Production (mmcf/day)…
  29. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 29
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V Western Canada Ethane (by Narrative) 400 WCSB Ethane Supply (kb/day) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 LNG Tsunami Power Wave NoWhere Fast Full…
  30. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 30
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V Western Canada Ethane (LNG Tsunami wo LNG) 400,000 400,000 350,000 350,000 300,000 300,000 Ethane Recovered (bbls/day) Vantage Pipeline 250,000 250,000 Offgas…
  31. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 31
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V Western Canada Ethane (LNG Tsunami with LNG) 400,000 400,000 350,000 350,000 LNG Canada C2 Volumes 300,000 300,000 Ethane Recovered (bbls/day) LNG Canada Field…
  32. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 32
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V Western Canada Propane (by Narrative) 350 WCSB Propane Supply (kb/day) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 LNG Tsunami Power Wave NoWhere Fast Full Speed…
  33. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 33
    North American NGL Pathways Canadian Propane Supply and Demand Forecast (LNG Tsunami) 400 350 Propane Volumes (1000 bbls/day) 300 250 200 150 100 50 - Western Canada Demand Eastern Canada Demand…
  34. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 34
    North American NGL Pathways Canadian Forecast of Propane Imports to Eastern Canada 180 160 140 Needed flows to 120 Propane From Eastern Canada Western Canada by Pipe and Rail US Imports 100 kb/d 80 Eastern Canada…
  35. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 35
    North American NGL Pathways Canadian Forecast of Propane Exports from Western Canada 120 Export to PADD V Export to PADD IV 99 100 96 95 90 89 Export to PADD III 83 84 81 81 82 82 79 Export to PADD II 80 76 76 77 75 74 75 71…
  36. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 36
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V Canadian Butane Supply Forecast 160 150 WCSB Butane Supply (kb/day) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 LNG Tsunami Power Wave NoWhere…
  37. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 37
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V Canadian Butane Supply Forecast 130,000 130,000 120,000 120,000 110,000 110,000 LNG Canada C4 Volumes 100,000 Butane Recovered (bbls/day) 100,000 90,000 90,000…
  38. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 38
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V WCSB Pentanes plus Supply Forecast 300 WCSB Pentanes Plus Supply (kb/day) 250 200 150 100 50 0 LNG Tsunami Power Wave NoWhere Fast Full Speed…
  39. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 39
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V WCSB Pentanes plus Supply Forecast 200,000 200,000 180,000 180,000 160,000 160,000 LNG Projects C5 Volumes 140,000 140,000 Pentanes + recovered (bbls/day)…
  40. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 40
    The United States Forecast Relevant Independent Objective 40 www.ceri.ca
  41. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 41
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V United States Raw Gas Forecast (by Narrative) 160,000 2012: Raw Gas production = 85,000 mmcf/day 140,000 NGL production = 3.0 million b/d (80% from gas plant capture)…
  42. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 42
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V United States Ethane Forecast (by Narrative) 3,500 United States Ethane Supply (kb/day) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 LNG Tsunami Power Wave…
  43. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 43
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V United States Ethane Forecast (by Narrative) LNG Tsunami Nowhere Fast Power Wave Full Speed Ahead ETHANE 2013 2030 2013 2030 2013 2030 2013 2030 Supply PADD I 33 327 33…
  44. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 44
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V United States Pentanes Plus Forecast (by Narrative) LNG Tsunami LNG Tsunami Supply (2013) Demand (2030) Gas Plant Supply 341,000 Petrochemical 47,000 Imports 34,000…
  45. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 45
    Mean While Back at the Ranch (WCSB) Relevant Independent Objective 45 www.ceri.ca
  46. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 46
    BC LNG Competition Relevant Independent Objective 46 www.ceri.ca
  47. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 47
    Competition to Supply LNG in the Asia-Pacific Basin Russia Alaska LNG Qatar LNG Sakhalin Island LNG Up to 3.5 bcf/day (8 Operating) (now 1.1 bcf/day) (Total 9.5 bcf/day) Kitimat LNG (now 7.5 bcf/day) Pipeline: 3.2 6.4 bcf/day LNG…
  48. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 48
    WCSB NGLs have Moved Relevant Independent Objective 48 www.ceri.ca
  49. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 49
    LPG :Lost Opportunity Prince Rupert, BC Kitimat, BC Anacortes, WA AltaGas, PetroGas, Idemitsu (30,000 b/d) Port of Longview, WA Sage Midstream (47,000 b/d) Portland, OR Pembina (40,000 b/d) Relevant Independent…
  50. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 50
    AB Oil Sands not a sure thing Relevant Independent Objective 50 www.ceri.ca
  51. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 51
    WCSB Crude Oil Equivalent Volumes vs Transport System Study 141 Oil Pathways (July 2014) 8,000 8,000 7,500 7,500 7,000 7,000 6,500 6,500 6,000 6,000 5,500 5,500 Volume (bbls/day) 5,000 5,000 4,500 4,500 4,000 4,000 3,500…
  52. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 52
    From a Petrochemical Perspective Petronas/Progress, Pacific Northwest LNG: Now or Later: Now, we loose, NGLs leave Canada Later, we win, NGLs coming to Alberta in the short term. Canada LNG: Now or Later: Now, we win, NGL field…
  53. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 53
    Canadian Energy Research Institute Thank you for your time Please visit us at www.ceri.ca Relevant Independent Objective 53 www.ceri.ca
  54. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 54
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V United States Propane Forecast (by Narrative) Base LNG Tsunami NoWhere Fast Power Wave Full Speed Ahead PROPANE 2013 2030 2030 2030 2030 Supply Gas Plants 807 1665 1257…
  55. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 55
    Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) in North America: An Update Part V United States Butane Forecast (by Narrative) Base LNG Tsunami NoWhere Fast Power Wave Full Speed Ahead BUTANE 2013 2030 2030 2030 2030 Supply Gas Plants 458 935 695 883…
  56. Canadian Energy Research Institute Alberta Chemistry Day – Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. – slide 56
    6098 Bitumen Wells 4392 Oil Wells 3303 Gas Wells 40% BC Relevant Independent Objective 56 www.ceri.ca

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