2 The Energy Outlook The Energy Outlook considers a number of different scenarios. These scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what bp explores the forces would like to happen. Rather they explore the possible…
4 In February of this year, bp In August, we set out a new strategy announced a new purpose to in support of this purpose and reimagine energy for people and our ambition. It will see bp transform planet. This purpose was…
Executive summary 6 Key messages Global energy demand continues levels of integration and competition. to grow, at least for a period, driven These changes underpin core beliefs by increasing prosperity and living about how the…
Contents 8 Overview 10 Regions 50 Three scenarios: Rapid, Net Zero and Summary 52 Business-as-usual 12 Regional energy demand and carbon emissions 54 Changing nature of global energy system 16 Fuel mix across key countries and…
10 Overview Three scenarios: Rapid, Net Zero and Business-as-usual Changing nature of global energy system 11 bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition
Overview 12 Three scenarios to explore the energy transition to 2050 CO2 emissions from energy use Gt of CO2 40 Rapid Net Zero 35 Business-as-usual 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Key points…
Overview 14 Scenarios differ due to alternative assumptions about policies and societal preferences Average carbon prices in developed and emerging regions Primary energy consumption by source US per tonne (real 2018) EJ 300 800…
Overview 16 Low-carbon transition leads to a fundamental shift in the global energy system Shares of primary energy in Rapid 100% Renewables Natural gas Other non-fossil fuels 80% Oil Coal 60% 40% 20% 0% 1900…
18 Global backdrop Total greenhouse gases Global GDP Climate impacts on GDP growth Energy demand Impact of Covid-19 Energy access and economic development 19 bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition
Global backdrop 20 Carbon emissions from energy use are the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions Global GHG emissions Carbon emissions from energy use, 2018 Gt of CO2e 60 Agriculture, 2% Buildings Seasonal space heating…
Global backdrop 22 Global GDP continues to expand, but at a slower rate Global GDP growth and Global GDP, 2018-2050 regional contributions Trillion US (2015) PPP % per annum 350 3.0% Other GDP per head Africa 300 2.5%…
Global backdrop 24 The impact from climate change on economic growth increases over the Outlook Climate change impact on level of GDP in 2050 Russia Canada Europe Other CIS United States Middle East China India OECD Asia…
Global backdrop 26 Energy demand grows led by increasing prosperity, partially offset by efficiency gains Contribution to primary energy demand growth Global primary energy demand % per annum EJ 4% 800 GDP per head Rapid 3%…
Global backdrop 28 Covid-19 is assumed to have a persistent impact on economic activity and energy demand Impact of Covid-19 in Rapid Alternative case: Greater impact from Covid-19 % change as a result of Covid-19 0% GDP…
Global backdrop 30 Economic development depends on both access to energy and the quality of that access GDP and electricity consumption Proportion of world population with (per head), 2018 Tier 3* access to electricity or less…
32 Energy use by sector Summary Industry Non-combusted Buildings Transport 33 bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition
Summary 34 Energy consumption grows across all sectors of the economy, although slower than in the past Primary energy consumption by end-use sector Annual demand growth and sector contributions EJ % per annum 800 2.0% Business-…
Industry 36 The use of energy within industry shifts towards developing economies and lower-carbon energy Growth of final energy consumption Primary energy demand in industry in industry by energy carrier EJ % per annum 350 2.0%…
Non-combusted 38 The non-combusted use of fuels continues to grow, but at much reduced rates Non-combusted demand by fuel Oil feedstock for plastics and fibres EJ Mb/d 60 20 Rapid Net Zero Business- Coal Rapid as-usual Net Zero…
Buildings 40 Improving living standards in the developing world drive increasing use of electricity in buildings Growth of final energy consumption Primary energy demand in buildings in buildings by energy carrier EJ % per annum…
Transport 42 The growth of energy used in transportation slows, with oil peaking in mid-to-late 2020s Share of final energy consumption Primary energy demand in transport in transport by energy carrier EJ Business- 180 Rapid Net…
Transport 44 Energy use in road transport is dominated by electrification and vehicle efficiency Share of car and truck vehicle Factors impacting passenger kilometres electrified* car liquid fuels demand Mb/d 100% 40…
Transport 46 The pattern of road transportation changes led by increasing prosperity and growth of robotaxis Change in share of road passenger VKM, Robotaxi share of passenger car VKM 2020-2050 powered by electricity 25% 60%…
Transport 48 Biofuels and hydrogen play a key role in decarbonizing aviation and marine Total final energy demand in transport by mode Aviation and marine demand by source EJ EJ Aviation 140 20 BAU Business- Trucks Biofuels…
50 Regions Summary Regional energy demand and carbon emissions Fuel mix across key countries and regions Global energy trade and energy imbalances Alternative scenario: Deglobalization 51 bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition
Regions 52 Growth in global energy demand comes entirely from emerging economies Primary energy growth Primary energy consumption by region and regional contributions EJ % per annum 800 2.5% Business- Other as-usual 700 Africa…
Regions 54 Global differences in energy consumption and carbon emissions narrow over the Outlook Energy consumption per head in Rapid Carbon emissions per head in Rapid GJ per head Tonnes of CO2 per head 300 16 Developed Rapid…
Regions 56 The low-carbon transition leads to a gradual convergence in the fuel mix across countries Shares of energy sources 2018 Rapid, 2050 Oil Oil 60% US US EU EU China 40% China India India 20% Renewables 60% 40% 20%…
Regions 58 Significant energy imbalances persist over the Outlook Net import and exports of oil and gas by region in Rapid EJ 25 22 50 Russia 41 2018 2050 2018 2050 14 US 2050 Middle China -20 2018 2050 East -23 -8…
Regions 60 Alternative scenario: Deglobalization Covid-19 may lead to deglobalization and increased concerns about energy security Deglobalization versus Rapid : Global GDP and energy in 2050 Net exports of oil and gas in 2050 EJ…
62 Demand and supply of energy sources Summary Oil and liquid fuels Gas Renewable energy in power Coal Nuclear power Hydroelectricity 63 bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition
Summary 64 Renewables lead the transition to a lower-carbon energy mix Shares of primary energy Primary energy consumption by source EJ Renewables Hydrocarbons 100% 800 Business- Renewables Rapid as-usual Net Zero Hydro 700…
Oil 66 Global market for liquid fuels adjusts to changing patterns of demand and production Liquid fuels consumption Liquid fuels supply growth Mb/d Mb/d, average annual growth 120 1.0 OPEC Rapid Business-as-usual Other 0.5…
Oil 68 The outlook for liquid fuels demand is dominated by changes in the transport sector Liquid fuels demand by sector Consumption of liquid fuels in transport Mb/d Mb/d 120 70 Power Buildings 100 Business- 60 as-usual…
Oil 70 The supply of liquid fuels is initially driven by US tight oil, with OPECs share recovering later US tight oil production Liquid fuels supply by region Mb/d Mb/d 18 80 50% Rapid Business- NGLs Rapid Business- OPEC…
Oil 72 Differences in operational carbon intensity of crudes have an increasing impact as carbon prices increase Average carbon intensity of crude production by country, 2015 Carbon intensity: impact on volumes* g of CO2e/MJ Mb/d…
Oil 74 The outlook for refining is challenging, with declining demand and capacity shutdowns Refining capacity changes, Refinery throughput 2018-2050 Mb/d Mb/d 90 20 Rapid 80 Business- 10 Product as-usual importers with…
Gas 76 Outlook for gas is more resilient than for either coal or oil Gas consumption Gas production growth by region Bcm Bcm 6000 1200 Rapid Business-as-usual Other 1000 Russia 5000 China 800 Middle 600 East 4000 Africa…
Gas 78 The pattern of gas demand differs significantly across the scenarios Change in gas demand by sector, 2018-2050 Bcm 1000 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual Power 800 Industry 600 Buildings Transport 400 Non-combusted…
Gas 80 The role of natural gas in a low-carbon energy transition Rapid vs. Business-as-usual : India and Other Asia* Natural gas with CCUS as a share of primary energy Differences in shares of primary energy 40% 10% Non-fossil…
Gas 82 LNG grows substantially, increasing the accessibility of gas around the globe LNG imports and exports Bcm Imports Exports Other India Other Africa Europe China 2018 Australia ME Other Asia OECD Asia Russia US…
Renewables 84 Renewable energy in power grows quickly, driven by wind and solar power Renewable energy used in power sector Cost of wind and solar energy by scenario EJ 100% = 2018 price 400 Geothermal 100% Rapid & biomass Net…
Renewables 86 The build out of wind and solar power capacity accelerates sharply Annual average increase in wind and solar capacity Installed capacity of wind and solar energy GW GW 1000 25000 Green Rapid hydrogen Net Zero…
Coal 88 The role of coal in the global energy system declines, driven by China Coal consumption Change in coal demand by sector and region, 2018-2050 EJ EJ 180 40 Other Rapid Business-as-usual 160 20 Other Asia 140 India 0 120…
Nuclear 90 Growth in nuclear power is dominated by China Nuclear generation Change in nuclear generation by region, 2018-2050 TWh TWh 8000 5000 Net Zero Other 7000 Rapid EU 4000 Net Zero US 6000 Business- Rapid Middle East…
Hydro 92 Hydroelectricity grows over the next 30 years but at a slower pace than in the past Hydroelectricity generation by region Hydroelectricity growth by region TWh % per annum 8000 Net Zero 3.0% Other Rapid 7000 Business-…
94 Other energy carriers Electricity and power generation Hydrogen 95 bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition
Power 96 Electricity demand grows robustly as the world continues to electrify Change in electricity demand Share of electricity in total final consumption by sector, 2018-2050 TWh 60% 25000 Transport Rapid Industry 50% Net…
Power 98 Growth in power generation is led by wind and solar power as coal loses share Share of global power generation by energy source Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual 70% Wind & solar 60% Natural gas Coal 50% 40% 30%…
Power 100 The challenge of decarbonizing the Indian power sector Share of Indian power generation Annual average net capacity by energy source in Rapid additions in wind and solar in India Generation from gas in India GW TWh 80%…
Hydrogen 102 Hydrogen plays an increasing role as the world transitions to a low-carbon energy system Hydrogen use by sector Hydrogen use by region EJ EJ 70 70 Power Other Rapid Net Zero Rapid Net Zero Transport India and 60 60…
Hydrogen 104 Most hydrogen production by 2050 is a combination of green and blue hydrogen Hydrogen production by type Annual average increase in wind and solar capacity EJ GW 70 1400 Grey Rapid Rapid Net Zero hydrogen…
106 Carbon emissions from energy use Summary Carbon pathways Alternative scenario: Delayed and Disorderly 107 bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition
Summary 108 Carbon emissions fall significantly in Rapid and Net Zero ; little progress in Business-as-usual Global carbon emissions from energy use Carbon emissions by sector Gt of CO2 Gt of CO2 40 40 Hydrogen 35 35 Buildings…
Carbon emissions 110 The fall in emissions in Rapid and Net Zero driven by switch to low-carbon energy Carbon capture utilization Carbon emissions from energy use and storage in 2050 Gt of CO2 Gt of CO2 40 6 Eciency Hydrogen 35…
Carbon emissions 112 Alternative scenario: Delayed and Disorderly A delayed transition may lead to a disorderly adjustment path Energy intensity Carbon intensity of energy MJ per US of GDP Mt of CO2 per EJ 5.5 70 Rapid 5.0…
Carbon emissions 114 Alternative scenario: Delayed and Disorderly A delayed and disorderly transition leads to significant economic costs Cumulative carbon emissions Primary energy consumption Gt of CO2 EJ 1000 800 Rapid Delayed…
Carbon emissions 116 Low carbon transition leads to fundamental changes in the global energy system Share of electricity and hydrogen Hydrocarbon use by scenario in total final consumption* Total final consumption by carrier* 100%…
118 Global energy system at net zero Summary Energy demand Electrification and the power sector Oil and natural gas Bioenergy and hydrogen CCUS and negative emission technologies 119 bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition
Net zero 120 Key uncertainties surrounding the global energy system in a net-zero world Total final consumption by energy source in 2050* EJ Bioenergy CCUS Electricity from bioenergy Net Zero Electricity Hydrogen Oil…
Net zero 122 Net-zero energy system: how much energy will the world need Global energy demand in IPCC scenarios and Net Zero Total final consumption in 2050 EJ EJ 1400 IPCC range at net zero* Demand if energy 1200 IPCC median…
Net zero 124 Net-zero energy system: significant increase in electrification and decarbonized power sector Shares of electricity, wind and solar in IPCC scenarios and Net Zero Technologies to help balance power system at different…
Net zero 126 Net-zero energy system: use of oil and natural gas falls substantially Oil consumption in IPCC Natural gas consumption in IPCC scenarios and Net Zero scenarios and Net Zero Mb/d Bcm 80 4000 IPCC range IPCC range 70…
Net zero 128 Net-zero energy system: share of bioenergy and hydrogen increases Bioenergy in IPCC scenarios and Net Zero Hydrogen in IPCC scenarios and Net Zero EJ EJ 180 70 IPCC range IPCC range 160 IPCC median IPCC median 60 By…
Net zero 130 Net-zero energy system: CCUS and negative emission technologies play a significant role Carbon captured in IPCC scenarios and Net Zero CCUS by sector and fuel type in Net Zero in 2050 Gt of CO2 Gt of CO2 20 8 IPCC…
132 Investment Summary Upstream oil and gas investment 133 bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition
Investment 134 The energy transition requires significant shifts in the pattern of investment Average annual investment, history and 2020-2050 Average annual investment in wind and solar 2018 US Billion Five-year rolling average,…
Investment 136 Significant investment in new oil and natural gas production is still required Consumption and production of oil Consumption and production of natural gas Mb/d Bcm 120 6000 100 5000 80 4000 60 3000 40 2000…
138 Comparisons Revisions to Rapid Comparing Rapid with external Outlooks 139 bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition
Comparisons 140 Main revisions to Rapid : lower energy demand and carbon emissions; higher share of renewable energy GDP, energy and carbon emissions Shares of primary energy % change in 2040 vs previous Outlook Percentage…
Comparisons 142 Rapid is broadly in line with external outlooks, although weaker oil and stronger natural gas Growth in primary energy by source, 2018-2050 CO2 emissions and CCUS in 2050 % per annum Gt of CO2 10% 20 Range energy…
144 Annex Key figures, definitions, methodology and data sources 145 bp Energy Outlook: 2020 edition
Annex 146 Key figures Level in 2050 Shares of primary energy in 2018 and 2050 Change 2018 - 2050 (% p.a.) 2018 Rapid Net Zero BAU 2018 Rapid Net Zero BAU Rapid Net Zero BAU Primary energy by fuel (EJ) Total 576 625 625 725 100% 100%…
Annex 148 Estimates of climate change on GDP growth This years Energy Outlook attempts analyses the economic impact of carbon emissions from energy use in to account explicitly for the impact climate change based on estimates each…
Annex 150 Construction of IPCC scenario sample ranges The worlds scientific community has frameworks were compiled and made For each of these two subsets of developed a number of integrated available via an online portal (https://…
Annex 152 Estimate of investment profiles This years Energy Outlook includes estimated at 4.3% p.a. and 4.8% p.a., A set of non-producing, unsanctioned, estimates of the investment respectively. When including fields dispatchable…
Annex 154 Definitions and data sources Data assumption that efficiency will Non-combusted includes fuel that increase linearly to 45% by 2050. is used as a feedstock to create Unless noted otherwise, data For more information see…
Annex 156 Disclaimer This publication contains forward-looking including the impact of climate change and acts of terrorism or sabotage; public statements that is, statements related to on this, population growth, demand for health…
Loading...
