Pembina Pipeline Corporation 2024 Investor Day TSX: PPL; NYSE: PBA May 16, 2024
Land Acknowledgement Pembina acknowledges that the City of Toronto is located on the traditional territories of the Anishinaabeg, Chippewa, Haudenosaunee, the Wendat and the Mississaugas of the Credit. Pembina also acknowledges our…
The Pembina Team Scott Burrows Eva Bishop Cameron Goldade Janet Loduca President & Senior Vice President & Senior Vice President & Senior Vice President, External Affairs & Chief Executive Officer Corporate Services Officer Chief…
Agenda Welcome and Opening Remarks 8:30 a.m. CEO Perspective Scott Burrows Strategy Chris Scherman Core Business Jaret Sprott, Chris Scherman Break 15 minutes New Ventures Stuart Taylor Financial Outlook Cameron Goldade…
CEO Perspective Heart of the Industry Scott Burrows President & Chief Executive Officer
Heart of the Industry CEO Perspective Positioned to Succeed Strategy Poised to Capture Growth Core Business Global Access and the Future of Energy New Ventures Means to Execute Financial Outlook 6
Since 2019 Investor DayPembina has Executed on all Fronts Conventional Volumes Major Projects Strategic M&A(1) 1,053 4B mbpd Under Development 11.0B 2.4B 897 In-Service 1.2B 4.3B mbpd 3.1B Underway 2018 2024E Since 2019…
Since 2019 Investor DayPembina has Expanded its Footprint Peace & Northern Pipeline +460 mbpd of upstream debottlenecking LPG Export +20 mbpd Gas Processing(1) Alliance Pipeline +0.85 bcf/d +0.9 bcf/d +100% +17% Storage…
Since 2019 Investor DayPembina has Delivered for Investors Financial Performance Shareholder Returns 3.5B 6.00 3.3B 3.1B 5.50 7.52/sh - 2.9B 4.81/sh 7.08/sh 7.2 billion 4.5B 8.00 6.95/sh 2.7B 5.00…
Since 2019 Investor DayLed the Evolution of Energy Infrastructure Balance Sheet Strength(1) Self-Funded Model(1)(2) Dividend Protection Return of Capital 800 3.00 578 7.2bn 600 2.90 95.0% 4.25x Common Share 400 2.80 2.74 246…
Since 2019 Investor DayPembina has Elevated its ESG Strategy GHG Reduction Target EDI Targets(1)(2) ESG Ratings(3) 45% Target 40% 35% Target 30% reduction in greenhouse Target 38% 39% 42% gas emissions intensity by Target 30%…
Global Energy Demand Forecasted to Grow Through 2030(1) Natural Gas (bcf/d) Natural Gas Liquids (mmbbl/d) Crude Oil (mmbbl/d) To 2030 120 To 2030 450 120 To 2030 +34 bcf/d +11 mmbbl/d +9 mmbbl/d Since 2010 400 Since 2010 +13…
Canadian Energy Production Forecasted to Grow Through 2030(1) Natural Gas (bcf/d) Natural Gas Liquids (mmbbl/d) Crude Oil and Condensate (mmbbl/d) To 2030 To 2030 +0.7 mmbbl/d 25 +6 bcf/d 1.0 5 Since 2010 Crude +1.7 mmbbl/d 20…
Positioned to Support Growing Global Energy Demand(1) Amid Shifting Canada Plays a Critical Global Energy Role in the Energy Supply Dynamics & Demand Landscape WCSB 11 Reliable Global Oil and Gas Days Demand is Growing 0…
Canadian Energy Growth Being Driven by Demand Pull Dynamics 1 2024 Incremental crude egress and 3 condensate demand 3 Fort St John Trans Mountain 3 Expansion 3 Fort Pembina PRT McMurray Prince Rupert 2 2025 Increased natural gas…
Leading Network of Pipeline Systems(1) 3.0 mmbpd hydrocarbon transportation capacity 10 mmbbl above ground storage capacity Capacities are net to Pembina Irreplicable Pipeline Network Conventional - including the Peace Pipeline…
Extensive Gas Processing, Fractionation, Storage and Export Facilities(1) 6.3 bcf/d gas processing capacity 115 mbpd condensate stabilization 410 mbpd fractionation capacity 21 mmbbl cavern storage capacity 20 mbpd propane export…
Complete Value Chain Wellhead to Market Natural Gas Energy transition catalyst, full alignment with global ESG efforts PGI - Premier natural gas processing partnership in North America Alliance - Cross border WCSB gas transport to…
Superior Service Offering Across All Commodities(1) Canadian Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Natural Gas Condensate Crude Oil Peers - (Ethane, Propane, Butane) WCSB Service Offering by Gathering & Domestic C2 + C3+ Domestic Domestic…
Core Energy Infrastructure Holding in Any Portfolio Full Value Chain Across All Premier natural gas liquids franchise gas processing plus NGL transportation and fractionation infrastructure Commodities Natural gas transport / export…
Strategy Positioned to Succeed Chris Scherman Senior Vice President, Marketing & Strategy Officer
Global Energy Demand - Range of Forecasts to 2050(1) Natural Gas (bcf/d) Crude Oil (mmbbl/d) 550 140 500 120 450 100 STEPS 400 STEPS 80 350 300 60 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Global energy…
Scenario Based Approach to Developing Strategy Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Scenario E Expected level of success Robust strategy Traditional strategy Developed a strategy that thrives in the face of a…
Themes Influencing our Strategy Global Demand for Oil and Gas is Growing and will be Enduring The Energy Transition is Driving a Shift in the Global Energy Mix Canada is Positioned to Support Growing Global Energy Demand…
To meet To set To be To thrive global ourselves resilient Strategy is an Extension of Our Proven Performance demand apart Strategy Positioning for the Future Predictable Cash Low Carbon Flow Growth Leveraging our…
Strategic Priorities Purpose: We deliver extraordinary energy solutions so the world can thrive To set To thrive To meet To be ourselves Invest in the energy global resilient transition to improve apart Sustain, decarbonize,…
To meet To set To be To thrive global ourselves To Be Resilient resilient demand apart we will sustain, decarbonize, and enhance our business. Sustain Decarbonize Enhance Recent Accomplishments Operational Excellence…
To meet To set To be To thrive global ourselves To Thrive resilient demand apart we will invest in the energy transition to improve the basins in which we operate. Recent Accomplishments Low Carbon Low Carbon Carbon…
To meet To set To be To thrive global ourselves To Meet Global Demand resilient demand apart we will transform and export our products. Recent Accomplishments West Coast Coastal U.S. Midwest NGL Advanced development of…
To meet To set To be To thrive global ourselves To Set Ourselves Apart resilient demand apart we will create a differentiated experience for our stakeholders. Recent Accomplishments Investors Customers Employees…
By 2030 To meet To set To be To thrive ourselves Invest in the energy global resilient transition to improve apart Sustain, decarbonize, and the basins in which demand Create a differentiated enhance our businesses Transform and…
Core Business Poised to Capture Growth Jaret Sprott Chris Scherman Senior Vice President & Senior Vice President, Chief Operating Officer Marketing & Strategy Officer
Journey to 2030 To thrive To meet Invest in the energy global transition to improve demand To set To be the basins in which we operate Transform and export our ourselves resilient products apart Sustain, decarbonize, and Create…
Safety is Foundational 2023 Results Incidents with serious injury or fatality potential reduced by 35% compared to 2022 Lost workday injuries decreased by 29% compared to 2022 Over 18,000 leadership engagements, a 100% increase…
Decarbonizing the Core Business(1) 2023 Scope 1 and 2 Emissions Composition In 2023 We Achieved Scope 1 Total: 72% Scope 2 Total: 28% GHG emissions intensity reduced by 3% from 2022 (7% cumulative Combustion 78% Purchased Electricity…
Industry Leading Project Execution Major Projects Placed into Service since 2017 Completed On-Time Completed On-Budget Facilities RFS III Ahead of schedule Under budget Canadian Diluent Hub On time Under budget Duvernay I Ahead of…
Executing In-Flight Projects and Integration of Alliance / Aux Sable Peace Phase VIII 430 million Enables segregated service for C2+ and C3+ while adding 235 On time, trending under budget mbpd of incremental capacity between Gordondale…
Servicing North Americas Most Economic Plays Gas Resources Play Payback Period(1) Oil Resources Play Payback Period(1) Montney (Karr) Clearwater (Nipisi) Natural Gas Plays Oil Plays Median Montney (Resthaven/Kakwa) Clearwater (Marten…
Largest WCSB Integrated Transportation and Midstream Platform Uniquely positioned, irreplicable assets within integrated value chain poised to capture WCSB growth 41
1 2 3 4 Transformational v Catalysts Driving Growth Infrastructure Projects Benefit to Pembina 3 Trigon Pacific (Proposed) 1 Trans Mountain Expansion(1) Bitumen exports drive 3 Fort St John condensate demand met AltaGas REEF…
1 2 3 4 Trans Mountain v Expansion 2024 Changing WCSB Market Dynamics 2023(1): Fort St John 4.1 mmbpd of WCSB crude oil production 3.2 mmbpd or 75% derived from oil sands Pembina PRT Fort McMurray 460 mbpd of condensate…
1 2 3 4 West Coast LNG v 2025 - 2028 Changing WCSB Market Dynamics 2023(1): NEBC Fort St John 18 bcf/d of WCSB natural gas production Pipeline 1,000 mbpd of WCSB NGL production Fort Pembina PRT McMurray Prince Rupert Impact of…
1 2 3 4 LPG Exports v 2026+ Change to WCSB Market Dynamics 3 Trigon Pacific (Proposed) Pre 2017: 3 Fort St John None AltaGas REEF (Proposed) 3 3 AltaGas RIPET Pembina PRT Fort 2023: McMurray Prince Rupert 130 mbpd(1) of LPG…
1 2 3 4 Dow Path2Zero v Ethylene Cracker 2027 - 2029 Changing WCSB Market Dynamics 2023(1): Fort St John 250 mbpd of ethane demand from Dow and Nova Pembina PRT Fort Impact of Dow Cracker(2): McMurray Prince Rupert Peace 100…
1 2 3 4 Potential Projects v to Support Ethane Supply Exploring a Suite of Capital Opportunities BRITISH COLUMBIA ALBERTA Fort St John SASKATCHEWAN Ability to extract 50 mbpd of ethane through a range of capital investment…
Advantaged Position v v to Benefit from Growth Catalysts Pembina Advantage Fort St John Fort In aggregate, industry projects could add more Pembina PRT Prince Rupert McMurray than 1.5 mmboe/d of hydrocarbon production(1)…
Marketing Business Unlocks the Intrinsic Value of our Assets Buying and selling Marketing and Utilize storage to Aux Sables natural Marketing on behalf of commodities to take distribution of NGL manage short and gas processing, NGL…
To meet To set To be To thrive global ourselves Marketing Supports Pembinas Strategic Priorities resilient demand apart Enhance value of Pembinas assets Drive incremental returns from physical assets and commodity exposure…
Break 51
New Ventures Global Access and the Future of Energy Stuart Taylor Senior Vice President & Corporate Development Officer
To meet To set To be To thrive global ourselves resilient Journey Beyond 2030 demand apart Carbon Capture, Utilization, Energy Transition Low Carbon Complex Liquified Natural Gas and Storage Fuels & Chemicals Developing…
Alberta Carbon Grid (ACG) Pembina and TC Energy plan to jointly develop a proposed world-scale CO2 transportation and sequestration system Open-access system to serve Albertas emerging Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage…
Pembina Low Carbon Complex (PLCC) Proposed industrial complex for low-carbon energy infrastructure Focused on attracting and developing investment for: 1) emerging energy transition technologies 2) sustainable fuels 3) chemicals,…
Cedar LNG Overview 3.3 mtpa floating LNG facility in Kitimat, British Columbia, within the Project traditional territory of the Haisla Nation 50.1% Ownership 49.9% Underpinned by 20-year take-or-pay tolling agreements…
Cedar LNG is Squarely Aligned With All Four Strategic Priorities To meet To set To be To thrive ourselves Invest in the energy global resilient transition to improve apart Sustain, decarbonize, and the basins in which demand…
Haisla Nation Band of Government of the Haisla People Cedar LNG Aligns with Haisla Nation Values Comprised of 2,000+ members Environmental responsibility by minimizing impacts on land, air and water Occupying its territory in…
Cedar Pipeline (8.8km) Cedar LNG Marine Terminal LNG Canada Cedar LNG CGL Delivery Point Meter Station to Cedar LNG Cedar Link Pipeline (1.1km) 59
Cedar LNG Economics US4.0 Billion Gross Capital Cost Onshore Infrastructure, Spending Profile IDC & Transaction Owners Costs, and Contingencies Costs FLNG PST Production Unit US0.6 Owners Costs & Other Pipelines 4.0B 1.1B…
Prudent Approach to Mitigate Cost Risk 70% Under Lump-Sum and Date-Certain Contract Onshore Infrastructure EPC contract for Floating LNG (FLNG) unit guarantees cost, performance and schedule Construction scopes executed by an…
Cedar LNGs Global Advantage Indigenous Led Advantaged Shipping Route to Asia Powered by Renewable Energy / Low Emissions Floating Facility Minimizes Environmental Impact Abundant Supply of Natural Gas via Scarce Pipeline…
Financial Outlook Means to Execute Cameron Goldade Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Strategy Execution Through Capital Excellence To meet To set To be To thrive ourselves Invest in the energy global resilient transition to improve apart Sustain, decarbonize, and the basins in which demand Create a…
Capital Allocation Principles 1 Maintain balance sheet strength Proven track record Priority to maintain strong BBB rating Creates competitive advantage 2 Maintain dividend Core to investment proposition Sustainable, reliable, and…
Project Portfolio Responding to Basin Growth and the Energy Transition 1.2 Billion of Projects 4 Billion of Projects Early-Stage Projects Currently Underway Under Development Under Evaluation Phase VIII Peace Pipeline Expansion…
2024 Outlook(1) 2024 Guidance Q224 through Q424 Sensitivities Adjusted EBITDA of 4.05 to 4.30 billion Key Variable Assumption Sensitivity Impact on adjusted Primary drivers compared to 2023 Adjusted EBITDA: EBITDA ( millions)…
Three Year Outlook(1) 2023 to 2026 Fee-Based Adjusted EBITDA per share Tailwinds 6.55 - 6.90 7.00 Growing volumes and utilization across asset 6.50 base, namely Conventional Pipelines and Gas 6.00 5.82 Services 5.50 New assets…
Three Year Funding Outlook: 2024 to 2026 9.9B 2.4B - - 9.1B (0.2B) 4.0B 5.3B Projects Under Development Cedar LNG Contributions Sanctioned Projects Cash Flow from Operating Activities Dividends (1) Capital Free Cash…
Financial Guardrails 2018 to 2023 Range 2024F Maintain target of 80% fee-based contribution to 85% - 1 82% to 95% 90% adjusted EBITDA(1)(2)…
Diversified and Highly Contracted Business with 70% Take-or-Pay Commodity Type NGL Crude Oil & Commodity Take-or-Pay / Condensate Exposed Cost-of-Service 10% - 20% 35% 40% Fee-for- 15% - 20% Service 65% - 70% 25%…
Market Leading Total Shareholder Returns(1) 250 200 150 100 50 - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Pembina S&P/TSX Energy Infrastructure Alerian Midstream Index A decade of industry leading…
Core Energy Infrastructure Holding in Any Portfolio Full Value Chain Across All Commodities Integrated commercial framework wellhead to market Visible Growth 4% to 6% fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share growth Financial Discipline…
Q&A 77
Endnotes Slide 7: Since 2019 Investor DayPembina has Executed on all Fronts Slide 17: Leading Network of Pipeline Systems (1) Ascribed value of PGI transaction totaled 11.0 billion, excluding the value of assets under (1) Capacities are…
Endnotes Slide 44: West Coast LNG 2025 - 2028 Slide 73: Increasing Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) (1) Source: CER, AER, and Government of B.C. websites plus Pembina estimates. Includes ethane, (1) Calculated as Adjusted EBITDA…
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures Adjusted Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (adjusted EBITDA) and adjusted EBITDA per Common Share Year Ended Year Ended Year Ended Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP…
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures Adjusted EBITDA From Equity Accounted Investees In accordance with IFRS, Pembina's jointly controlled investments are accounted for using equity accounting. Under equity accounting, the assets and…
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures Adjusted Cash Flow From Operating Activities and Adjusted Cash Flow From Operating Year Ended Activities per Common Share ( millions, except as noted) Notes December 31, 2023 Adjusted cash flow from…
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures Fee-Based Contribution to Adjusted EBITDA Year Ended ( millions, except as noted) Notes December 31, 2023 Fee-based contribution to adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure defined as the portion of…
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures Year Ended ( millions, except as noted) Notes December 31, 2023 Cash Flow After Dividends and Free Cash Flow Cash flow from operating activities 2,635 Cash Flow After Dividends and Free Cash Flow…
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures Rating Agency FFO-to-Debt Year Ended Year Ended ( millions, except as noted) Notes December 31, 2022 December 31, 2023 Rating Agency FFO-to-Debt is a non-GAAP ratio defined and used by Pembina…
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures Year Ended Year Ended ( millions, except as noted) Notes December 31, 2022 December 31, 2023 Senior Debt Loans and borrowings (current) 600 650 Senior debt is a non-GAAP measure and is defined as…
Contact Us www.pembina.com Toll Free: 1.855.880.7404 Phone: 403.231.3156 investor-relationspembina.com
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