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GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute

Canadian Energy Research Institute · Dec 2, 2014 · 25 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 1
    Oil Sands Economic Outlook Presented by Dinara Millington Vice President, Research Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) Global Energy 2014 December 2-4, 2014 Relevant Independent Objective 1 www.ceri.ca
  2. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 2
    Canadian Energy Research Institute Overview Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, non- profit research institute specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental…
  3. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 3
    Agenda Introduction Canadian Oil Sands Resource Base Canadian Oil Sands Production and Exports Forecast Economics of Oil Sands Projects The Need for Market Access Questions Relevant Independent Objective 3 www.ceri.ca
  4. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 4
    Canadian Oil Sands Resource Base Relevant Independent Objective 4 www.ceri.ca
  5. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 5
    Oil Proved Reserves by Country (Billion Barrels and % of total at end of 2013) (bln barrels) 350.0 World Oil Proved Reserves - 1,688 Billion barrels (at end of 2013) 20.0% 80 % are state-owned or controlled 17.7% 18.0% 300.0 15.8%…
  6. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 6
    Alberta Oil Sands Areas and Select Deposits Source: Alberta Energy Regulator Relevant Independent Objective 6 www.ceri.ca
  7. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 7
    In-Place Volumes and Established Reserves of Crude Bitumen in Alberta (109 m3) Source: Alberta Energy Regulator Relevant Independent Objective 7 www.ceri.ca
  8. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 8
    Alberta Oil Sands Areas: Grosmont Deposits The Grosmont Formation carbonate rocks host a giant bitumen reservoir. Grosmont bitumen deposit will be a major exploration target in the future of Albertas hydrocarbon industry Modern…
  9. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 9
    Bitumen Pay Thickness of Athabasca Grosmont Grosmont Formation: Estimated 406 billion barrels of initial volume in place (64, 537 mln m3) If only one third of the carbonate resource were proven recoverable, Canada could become the…
  10. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 10
    Bitumen Pay Thickness of Athabasca Gosmost Grosmont Formation: Estimated 406 billion barrels of initial volume in place (64, 537 mln m3) Source: Alberta Energy Regulator Relevant Independent Objective 10 www.ceri.ca
  11. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 11
    Canadian Oil Sands Production and Exports Forecast Relevant Independent Objective 11 www.ceri.ca
  12. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 12
    Oil Sands Forecasts and Economic Impacts (Sept. 2014) Oil Sands New and Sustaining Capital Requirements 45,000 42,500 Initial and Sustaining Capital (million Cdn ) 40,000 37,500 35,000 32,500 30,000 27,500 25,000 22,500…
  13. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 13
    Oil Sands Forecasts and Economic Impacts (Sept. 2014) Oil Sands Capital and Operating Cost Requirements (Million CDN) 75,000 Total Capital Costs 70,000 Total Operating Costs 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000…
  14. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 14
    CERIs Oil Sands Production Forecast ('000 bpd) 7,000 Total Mining Volume Total In Situ Volume 6,000 Oil Sands Production grows to 5.5 MMbpd 5,000 by 2030 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 2009 2011 2013…
  15. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 15
    Western Canadian Transportation and Export Volumes 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 Net Export Flow Volume ('000 bbls/day) 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2014 2030 2007…
  16. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 16
    Western Canadian Crude by Rail and Prices bbl/d US/bbl 180,000 120 160,000 100 140,000 120,000 80 100,000 60 80,000 60,000 40 40,000 20 20,000 - 0 Q12012 Q22012 Q32012 Q42012 Q12013 Q22013 Q32013 Q42013 Q12014 Q22014…
  17. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 17
    Economics of Oil Sands Projects Relevant Independent Objective 17 www.ceri.ca
  18. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 18
    Cost Curve for Oil Projects around the world Source: J.P.Morgan. Eye on the Market, Our annual energy update: a reality check, October 28, 2013. Goldman Sachs 380 Projects to change the world, April 12, 2013. Relevant…
  19. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 19
    Full-Cycle Supply Costs: US Tight Oil vs. Oil Sands Relevant Independent Objective 19 www.ceri.ca
  20. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 20
    Oil Sands Supply Costs for Greenfield Development SAGD Stand alone Mining Mining & Upgrading Net Present Value (C Millions) 0 0 0 Base Year 2013 2013 2013 Discounted Discounted Discounted Costs (C/b) Return on Investment Included…
  21. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 21
    The Need for Market Access Relevant Independent Objective 21 www.ceri.ca
  22. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 22
    CERI Oil Pathways Oil Sands (Bitumen Production) 6.0 CERI Reference Case 5.5 1: Opening Doors 2: Driving w/o License 5.0 Shut-in production 1.7 3: Opportunity Lost 4: License w/o Wheels MMbpd 4.5 Million barrels per Day…
  23. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 23
    WCSB Crude Oil Equivalent Volumes vs. Transport System Study 141 Oil Pathways (July 2014) 8,000 8,000 7,500 7,500 7,000 7,000 6,500 6,500 6,000 6,000 Volume (bbls/day) 5,500 5,500 5,000 5,000 4,500 4,500 4,000 4,000 3,500…
  24. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 24
    CERI Oil Pathways Western Canadian Select Price by Narrative (US /barrel) 140 130 AEO Western Canadian Select 120 1: Driving w/o Licence US2011/barrel 2: Opening Doors 110 3: Licence w/o Wheels 4: Opportunity Lost 100…
  25. GLOBAL ENERGY 2014 – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 25
    Thank you www.ceri.ca Relevant Independent Objective 25 www.ceri.ca

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