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OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute

Canadian Energy Research Institute · Nov 25, 2014 · 24 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 1
    Oil Sands Economic Outlook Presented by Dinara Millington Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) Oil Sands Symposium November 25-26, 2014 Relevant Independent Objective 1 www.ceri.ca
  2. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 2
    Canadian Energy Research Institute Overview Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, non- profit research institute specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental…
  3. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 3
    Agenda Introduction Global Demand and Supply Forecasts Canadian Crude Oil Production and Exports Economic Impacts of Oil Sands Production Questions Relevant Independent Objective 3 www.ceri.ca
  4. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 4
    Global Oil Demand and Supply Forecasts Relevant Independent Objective 4 www.ceri.ca
  5. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 5
    Growth in World Oil Demand by Region (MMbpd) Source: International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2014.2014 Relevant Independent Objective 5 www.ceri.ca
  6. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 6
    Changes in World Oil Supply (MMbpd) Source: International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2014.2014 Relevant Independent Objective 6 www.ceri.ca
  7. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 7
    Cost Curve for Oil Projects around the world Source: J.P.Morgan. Eye on the Market, Our annual energy update: a reality check, October 28, 2013. Goldman Sachs 380 Projects to change the world, April 12, 2013. Relevant…
  8. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 8
    Oil Sands Supply Costs for Greenfield Development SAGD Stand alone Mining Mining & Upgrading Net Present Value (C Millions) 0 0 0 Base Year 2013 2013 2013 Discounted Discounted Discounted Costs (C/b) Return on Investment Included…
  9. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 9
    Canadian Oil Sands Production and Exports Forecast Relevant Independent Objective 9 www.ceri.ca
  10. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 10
    CERIs Oil Sands Production Forecast ('000 bpd) 7,000 Total Mining Volume Total In Situ Volume 6,000 Oil Sands Production grows to 5.5 MMBpd 5,000 by 2030 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 2009 2011 2013…
  11. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 11
    Western Canadian Transportation and Export Volumes 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 Net Export Flow Volume ('000 bbls/day) 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2014 2030…
  12. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 12
    Western Canadian Crude by Rail and Prices bbl/d US/bbl 180,000 120 160,000 100 140,000 120,000 80 100,000 60 80,000 60,000 40 40,000 20 20,000 - 0 Q12012 Q22012 Q32012 Q42012 Q12013 Q22013 Q32013 Q42013 Q12014 Q22014…
  13. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 13
    Western Canadian Rail Capacity vs. Throughput The rail outbound capacity is forecasted to increase to over 1.0 MMBpd by 2015. The actual volume of crude moved by rail is less than design capacity. CAPP forecasts rail movements…
  14. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 14
    Economic Impacts of Oil Sands Development Relevant Independent Objective 14 www.ceri.ca
  15. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 15
    Oil Sands Forecasts and Economic Impacts (Sept. 2014) Oil Sands New and Sustaining Capital Requirements 45,000 42,500 Initial and Sustaining Capital (million Cdn ) 40,000 37,500 35,000 32,500 30,000 27,500 25,000 22,500…
  16. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 16
    Oil Sands Forecasts and Economic Impacts (Sept. 2014) Oil Sands Capital and Operating Cost Requirements (Million CDN) 75,000 Total Capital Costs 70,000 Total Operating Costs 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000…
  17. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 17
    Oil Sands Forecasts and Economic Impacts (Sept. 2014) Oil Sands Direct Employment 250,000 jobs per year 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Modular construction, EPC (Engineering construction Sector) Oil Sands Project…
  18. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 18
    Oil Sands Forecasts and Economic Impacts (Sept. 2014) Oil Sands Employment (direct, indirect, induced) 900,000 850,000 800,000 750,000 700,000 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000…
  19. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 19
    Oil Sands Forecasts and Economic Impacts (Sept 2014) Oil Sands: Federal and Provincial Tax Economic Impacts as a Result of a Shock to Alberta's Economy 2014-2038 Federal - Investments and Operations CAD Million Indirect Tax Personal…
  20. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 20
    Oil Sands Forecasts and Economic Impacts (Sept. 2014) Oil Sands Royalties Annual (MM) Cumulative (MM) 26,000 130,000 25,000 24,000 Primary/ EOR 120,000 19,588 23,000 18,242 22,000 110,000 21,000 Mining 16,603 20,000…
  21. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 21
    The need for Market Access Relevant Independent Objective 21 www.ceri.ca
  22. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 22
    WCSB Crude Oil Equivalent volumes vs Transport System Study 141 Oil Pathways (July 2014) 8,000 8,000 7,500 7,500 7,000 7,000 6,500 6,500 6,000 6,000 Volume (bbls/day) 5,500 5,500 5,000 5,000 4,500 4,500 4,000 4,000 3,500…
  23. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 23
    CERI Oil Pathways Western Canadian Select Price by Narrative (US /barrel) 140 130 AEO Western Canadian Select 120 1: Driving w/o Licence US2011/barrel 2: Opening Doors 110 3: Licence w/o Wheels 4: Opportunity Lost 100…
  24. OIL SANDS SYMPOSIUM – Canadian Energy Research Institute – slide 24
    Thank you www.ceri.ca Relevant Independent Objective 24 www.ceri.ca

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