US Bakken: Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Gibson Scott, CFA Director, Energy Research Caitlyn McCrimmon, CFA Senior Associate, Energy Research David J. Howard, P.Eng. Director, Energy Research 2013 Investment…
NAVs Most Sensitive to Well Performance * Share prices as at November 11, 2013 Source : ITG IR U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 2
Lateral Lengths Steadily Increase Over Time Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 5
EOG Is Changing the Fraccing Game Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 6
Ceramic Users Are Gaining Market Share Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 7
IP Rates Are Differentiated by Operator Source : ITG IR, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 8
Est. EURs Are Differentiated by Operator Source : ITG IR, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 9
The Price of Outperformance Can Be High Source : ITG IR U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 10
The Essential Ingredients to OOIP Source : ITG IR U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 12
MB Is 75 ft Thick in the East Nesson Region Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 13
MB Porosity Averages 5-8% in Core Area Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 14
Low Water Saturation in Thermally Mature Region Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 15
MB OOIP Ranges 6-10 MMbbl/Section in Core Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 16
MB OOIP Ranges 6-10 MMbbl/Section in Core Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 17
Only a Fraction of MB OOIP Recovered To Date Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 18
Expected RF Based on Current Well Count Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 19
Implied RF Based on Six Wells/1,280-Acre DSU Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 20
Three Forks Is Present Everywhere the Bakken Is Source : ITG IR, North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 21
Three Forks Sourced by Bakken Shales Source : ITG IR, USGS, modified from Pollastro and others (2008a) U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 22
Three Forks Results Are Variable Across The Basin Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 23
Structure Influences TFS Productivity Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 24
Southern Limit Defined by Bakken Zero Edge Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 25
Thermal Maturity Enhances Productivity Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 26
Shales Must Be Sufficiently Thick Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 27
ITG IR Three Forks Fairway Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 28
TFS Thickness Ranges from 175 to 250 ft Source : ITG IR, North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources Source : ITG IR, NDIC, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide…
Deeper Benches Look Worse on Logs Middle Bakken: D: 6% : 5 ohms Three Forks (1st Bench): D: 3% : 3 ohms Three Forks (2nd Bench): D: 2% : 2.5 ohms Three Forks (3rd Bench): D: 1% : 1.5 ohms Source : ITG IR, NDIC…
TFS Wells Completed Similarly to Typical MB Wells were similarly drilled and completed with 9,500- to 10,000-ft laterals and 2.5-3 million lbs of proppant (sand/ceramic combination) Peak CM IP rates more correlated to longer term…
Lower TFS Wells Underperform Offset MB CLR has drilled six wells in the Charlotte unit targeting the MB, TF1, TF2, TF3 intervals Charlotte 1-22H (MB): Reported test: NA 24-hr Test: 496 boe/d (0% gas) Charlotte 2-22H (TF2):…
CLRs ND Acreage Weighted To ITG IR Cores Source : ITG IR, company presentations U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 33
Most KOG Acreage Also Within ITG IR MB Cores Source : ITG IR, company presentations U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 34
OAS West Williston Mostly Outside of Fairways Source : ITG IR, company presentations U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 35
Much WLL Acreage Outside of Fairways Source : ITG IR, company presentations U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 36
FBIR Region Exhibits Lowest Break-Evens Source : ITG IR, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 38
FBIR Operators Exhibit Lowest Break-Evens Source : ITG IR, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 39
Anticline and FBIR Regions Drive Growth Source : ITG IR, raw data provided by didesktop U.S. Bakken Well Design, Downspacing and Deeper Benches 11/2013 Slide No. 40
Companies Mentioned ADDITIONAL COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT Name of Company Ticker Exchange Recent Price Continental Resources CLR NYSE 115.62 EOG Resources EOG NYSE 169.67 Halcon Resources HK NYSE 4.70 Hess HES NYSE 81.70 Kodiak…