Global LNG Market Overview Andrew Walker VP Global LNG London, 18 March 2014 Methane Shirley Elisabeth LNG vessel
Global LNG market update Review of 2013 Supply Markets Trade dynamics Prices Outlook for 2014 Key influences And beyond . When will the current market tightness end 3
LNG supply by year: 2005 to 2013 260 240 220 200 mtpa 180 160 140 120 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: BG Group interpretation of IHS Waterborne data (Feb 2014), delivered volumes 4
Supply by country: 2013 YOY Total = +1.1 mtpa 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Egypt Peru Malaysia Nigeria US (Kenai) Oman Libya EG Yemen UAE T&T Norway Russia Qatar Australia Indonesia…
Markets: 2013 YOY Total = +1.1 mtpa 5 -16.9 mtpa +18.0 mtpa -4.1 N. Europe -9.6 M. Europe mt 0 Italy Kuwait Spain Thailand Portugal Argentina China Greece Canada Netherlands UAE India…
LNG trade balance: 2013 vs 2012 YOY prices 15 2.00 10 1.00 5 0.00 JCC (/bbl) Asian spot (/mmBtu) -1.00 mt 0 Supply Asia / M.E. M. Europe Latin Am. N. Europe US / Can -2.00 -5 -3.00 -10…
European LNG imports: 2010 to 2013 12 3-month moving average 5 2013 vs. 2010 Netherlands 0 10 Netherlands UK -5 Spain 8 Belgium Main -10 Europe Turkey bcfd -21.0 6 France mt Spain -15 Italy 4 Portugal Turkey…
LNG market has tightened LNG imports by region 2008-15 (mtpa) 300 Market loosening Market tightening Supply outpacing Asia demand growth Asia demand growth outpacing supply 250 Total supply 200 150 Europe FORECAST* 100…
Gas and LNG prices Global Asia Fukushima recession recovery earthquake 25 20 Oil parity Asia long- 15 /mmbtu Asia spot term proxy NBP 10 5 HH 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Platts,…
2013: Year in review Supply Effectively flat YoY two new trains had limited impact Unplanned outages and declines weighed on supply Markets Growth & diversification: 10 new terminals & three new markets added Nuclear impacts in…
Global LNG re-exports 1.2 1.1 Re-exports (mtpa) 1.0 2013 4.4 0.9 2012 3.5 0.8 2011 2.3 2010 1.0 0.7 bcfd 2009 0.2 0.6 2008 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Jan May Jul Jan May Jul Jan May Jul Jan…
Outlook for 2014: key influences Supply Timing of Australasian LNG wave: PNG and QCLNG start-ups Angola LNG ramp-up Overall industry performance: declines and unplanned outages Markets Start-up of Japanese nuclear capacity Chinese…
Looking beyond 2014 When will the current market tightness end Supply factors Ramp-up of Australian supply Project FIDs for next material wave: US, Canada, Mozambique (In 2013 10 new projects planned FID one took it) Market…
Summary What did the market tell us in 2013 Underlying tightness Europe the balancing market Seasonal overlay: weather, storage, market sentiment & foresight Increasing resilience: surprises are the new normal When will the…
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