BALANCING GROWTH & RETURNS MANAGEMENT DAY 2014 13 MARCH 2014 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 13 March, 2014 1
BEN VAN BEURDEN CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 13 March, 2014 3
EXECUTING A CONSISTENT, LONG-TERM STRATEGY Unrelenting focus on HSSE Technology, integration and scale Disciplined capital investment by strategic theme Growth in cash flow through-cycle Competitive shareholder returns…
FOCUS ON SAFETY 2013 UPDATE Goal Zero on safety Spills - operational Injuries TRCF/million working hours million working hours Volume in thousand tonnes 10 4 800 5 2 600 0 400 0 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '03 '04 '05…
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE COMPETITIVE POSITION Earnings per share growth 3 years Cash flow per share growth 3 years % growth 2010-2013 % growth 2010-2013 60 30 40 15 0 20 -15 0 Shell Competitors Total shareholder return 3 years…
2014 PRIORITIES Returns and cash flow Improve our financial Competitive returns for shareholders performance Enhance our Take hard choices on new options capital efficiency Increase asset sales Reduce pace of growth…
IMPROVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: RESPONDING TO NEW MARKET DYNAMICS North America resources plays Oil Products Groundbirch, Canada Geelong refinery, Australia 80 billion capital employed Financial performance not acceptable…
IMPROVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN UPSTREAM ENGINE PDO Oman UK North Sea kboe/day, Shell share kboe per day, Shell share 300 200 2012:117kboe/d 150 200 2013: 91kboe/d 100 100 50 0 0 Mar May Mar May Nov Nov…
IMPROVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE DRIVE TO FURTHER ENHANCE INTEGRATED GAS PROFITABILITY Increasing Shells managed sales Shells LNG portfolio Total LNG volumes in mtpa Spain Sakhalin Cove Point Elba 2013 Baja QG-4 25 mtpa Hazira…
2014 PRIORITIES Returns and cash flow Improve our financial Competitive returns for shareholders performance Enhance our Take hard choices on new options capital efficiency Increase asset sales Reduce pace of growth…
ENHANCE CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TAKE HARD CHOICES 2014 8 billion capital investment 27 billion capital investment Low cost options + Early high-grading Increase predictability Flawless execution of major spend Explore Feasibility…
ENHANCE CAPITAL EFFICIENCY MAKING OUR PLANS CREDIBLE, COMPETITIVE, AFFORDABLE 150 performance units implemented Sharpen our focus: Targeted growth spend Address underperforming assets Asset sales Increase divestment of non-core…
ENHANCE CAPITAL EFFICIENCY CAPITAL CEILINGS + OPTION SET DRIVE HARD CHOICES Integrated Gas IDENTIFY/ASSESS SELECT DEFINE EXECUTE ON STREAM US GTL - Arrow LNG - REDESIGN Abadi LNG ph1 Gorgon LNG T1-3 Atlantic LNG CANCELLED Browse LNG…
ENHANCE CAPITAL EFFICIENCY 2013-14 CAPITAL SPENDING Total capital investment billion 50 25 Strict capital ceilings More competitive returns 0 2013 2014 2013 2014 Future opportunities Resources plays Europe Deep-water…
2014 PRIORITIES Returns and cash flow Improve our financial Competitive returns for shareholders performance Enhance our Take hard choices on new options capital efficiency Increase asset sales Reduce pace of growth…
PROJECT MANAGEMENT + BENCHMARKING Upstream project status IPA project benchmark Construction time elapsed % Gumusut-Kakap Bonga NW Cardamom Corrib Sabah Gas - KBB Gorgon LNG T1-3 Forcados Yokri Integrated project Schiehallion…
DELIVER NEW PROJECTS TRACK RECORD 2010-14 Consistent delivery of Production growth from key start-ups new projects kboe per day billion 600 9 2013 impact: 9 billion Razen CFFO from 2010+ start-ups 400 6 Gumusut-Kakap 200 3…
CONVENTIONAL EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO + THEMES Spend Resources/potential including deals added1 ( billion) (billion boe) Time to Prospect development size Oil & gas split (%) (years) (million boe) 2011-2013 2011-2013 2013…
GLOBAL RESOURCES PLAYS BUILDING CAPABILITIES IN LONG TERM OPPORTUNITY Total resources plays capital investment Western billion Canada Russia 10 Germany Ukraine Turkey Changbei 5 Lower 48 USA Tunisia Changbei 2 Oman Sichuan 0…
SIMON HENRY CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 13 March, 2014 26
FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK AND PRIORITIES Priorities for cash CASH PERFORMANCE 1. Debt service CFFO drives investment + payout 2. Dividends: growth policy 3. Capital investment: disciplined through PAY-OUT INVESTMENT cycle growth…
CASH FLOW AND PAY-OUT Cash generation Dividend track record billion billion billion 2011-13 2013 150 60 10 DOWN 100 STREAM 40 DOWN STREAM 5 50 UP 20 UP STREAM STREAM 0 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 14Q1 Dividend…
CASH FLOW + RETURNS Cash flow from operations ROACE billion, 4Q rolling %, 4Q rolling 60 30% 50 20% 40 30 10% 20 0% 10 - -10% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 Shell Shell peer group peer group ROACE: earnings…
DECONSTRUCTING OUR CAPITAL INVESTMENT 2014 organic capital investment billion Exploration Preparing new options 30 + pre-FID Key growth Driving new upstream growth 20 projects Smaller growth projects 10 Maintaining…
SEC PROVED RESERVES POSITION 2013 Reserves performance 2011-13 Reserves additions 2013 RRR 131% 2011-13 RRR 91% Reserves life at end 2013 11.5 years 2011-13 Reserves average performance Organic1 additions 1.4 billion boe…
RESOURCES UPDATE Converting resources to production 2013 resources by theme billion boe Longer-term upside 35 Vito BMS-54 Zabazaba Appomattox 25 Permian Carmon Creek ph1&2 Rabab Harweel Upstream engine Erha North ph2…
NEW START-UPS 2013-2018 Start-up 2013 start-up 2014-2015 2016-2018 Bukom ECC debottleneck Westward-Ho pipeline Bukom cogeneration Jack St.Malo pipeline Singapore LOBP DOWNSTREAM ENGINE Amal Steam Corrib Clair ph2 Schiehallion…
BALANCING GROWTH + RETURNS Positive outlook for ROACE + CFFO Near-term growth: deep-water, upstream engines, future opportunities Integrated gas growth 2016+ Restructure resources plays + downstream Bubble size represents…
JOHN ABBOTT DOWNSTREAM DIRECTOR ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 13 March, 2014 35
DOWNSTREAM STRATEGY Developing and sustaining competitive advantage through Advantaged Improving our Differentiated Distinguished feedstock + footprint Products + Brand supply Customer Offer Priority to improve our financial…
DOWNSTREAM COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE Downstream ROACE Chemicals turn-around 15% Legacy asset positions Complex competitive drivers 10% 5% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Shell Downstream Peer group range Earnings on local GAAP basis…
CHEMICALS TURNAROUND Major improvements delivered Shell Chemicals: Investment in advantaged feedstock Base chemicals + derivatives Refocused on strong core + concentrated footprint Advantaged feedstock Performance units management…
OIL PRODUCTS PERFORMANCE 2008 2013 Reduced footprint + costs Port Arthur expansion Added Brazil biofuels + East marketing growth Returns remain under pressure Portfolio restructuring ROACE remains low Million b/d Million b/d…
SHARPER FOCUS ON UPGRADING OUR PORTFOLIO Portfolio change Downstream asset sales billion Selective Growth: Chemicals 4 China LNG for transport Premium fuels + lubes Biofuels Refinery crude flexibility and product slate 2…
IMPROVING PERFORMANCE OF KEY ASSETS Bukom performance turnaround Scotford building on sustained performance Refinery unplanned downtime in % 8 6 4 2 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Unplanned downtime 3-year rolling average…
OIL PRODUCTS GROWTH IN KEY MARKETS China marketing growth Brazil - Razen JV Volume (million litres) billion litres million tonnes billion R (local curr) 1200 6000 24 60 2 45 800 4000 21 30 1 400 2000 18 15 0 0 15 0 0 11/12…
DOWNSTREAM STRATEGY Developing and sustaining competitive advantage through Advantaged Improving our Differentiated Distinguished feedstock + footprint Products + Brand supply Customer Offer Priority to improve our financial…
MARVIN ODUM UPSTREAM AMERICAS DIRECTOR ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 13 March, 2014 48
UPSTREAM AMERICAS STRATEGY Major OECD growth potential for Shell Substantial and diverse resources base Deep-water Heavy Oil Resources Plays Integrated Gas Arctic Industry leadership Mining and in-situ Portfolio repositioning…
UPSTREAM AMERICAS PORTFOLIO SUBSTANTIAL UNDEVELOPED UPSTREAM RESOURCES Resources Resources Plays Western Canada Deep-water 11.7 billion boe Carmon Creek dry gas In Situ Heavy Oil Gas monetization options LNG Major undeveloped…
UPSTREAM AMERICAS PORTFOLIO FINANCIALS DIVERSE BUSINESSES & MATURITY 2013 Organic capital Capital Earnings 1 CFFO ROACE billion investment employed 1 3 6 15 10% DEEP-WATER Growing + competitive Delivering new growth 2 3 2 19…
NORTH AMERICA RESOURCES PLAYS PORTFOLIO & STRATEGY Portfolio Announced divestment Liquids rich shales Established in gas plays Dry gas Groundbirch Gas/LRS Liquids rich shales exploration Deep Basin/Kaybob Gas monetization options…
LIQUIDS RICH SHALES EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL Frontier exploration program since 2010 Announced divestments Liquids rich shale Move to more focused & segmented de- Groundbirch risking Kaybob Positive early results in Duvernay…
DRY GAS ASSESSING MONETIZATION OPPORTUNITIES Major resources position Gas Gas monetization options Drill to maximize use of existing infrastructure Groundbirch Addressing underperforming assets Deep Basin LNG Foothills Acquisition…
RESOURCES PLAYS MAJOR REVIEW OF PORTFOLIO UNDERWAY Portfolio Staff reduction -30% Grow: Reduction in Shell + Permian contractor staff Kaybob Shell Pembina employees Field office closures Argentina Vaca Muerta Supply chain +…
LNG CANADA PROGRESSING TO FID LNG Canada Coastal GasLink pipeline 2 x 6 mtpa first phase TransCanada Pipelines (TCPL) to build, own & Kitimat site agreement operate 25-year export license secured (24 mtpa) 700km pipeline…
HEAVY OIL DELIVERY & GROWTH Delivery of production + financial step-up Assets Cost focus + footprint management AOSP: Quest CCS development In Situ: Carmon Creek FID 80 kboe/d AOSP JV In Situ Shell Aera JV 225 kboe/d 20 kboe/d…
UPSTREAM AMERICAS INTEGRATION & POTENTIAL End to end value chain linkage Efficient evacuation route to market Advantaged refining position Western LNG Canada Canada gas Carmon Creek AOSP LRS Scotford Proposed Energy East…
LEADING POSITION IN DEEP-WATER Deep water unit operating cost (Gulf of Mexico) Capital investment /bbl billion 10 6 4 2 0 5 -2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Unit cost range Shell unit cost Base Growth…
DEEP-WATER GULF OF MEXICO PROJECT DELIVERY Perdido 2010 start-up Mars B February 2014 start-up 150 kboed 100 50 0 10 11 12 13 14 Payback achieved February 2014 First oil more than 6 months ahead of schedule First producer…
DEEP-WATER GULF OF MEXICO NEW PROJECTS Appomattox 150 kboe/d hub potential Integrating Vicksburg A discovery Resources increased 100mmboe to 600 million boe Vito Shell 80% (operator) 100 kboe/d potential FEED started late 2013…
UPSTREAM AMERICAS OUTLOOK Project flow 2013 2014 2015 2016/2017 Heavy Oil F Carmon Creek Carmon Creek S phase 1 BC-10 ph2 Mars B Cardamom Appomatox Stones S Deep-water S S S F Vito F S BC-10 ph3 LRS de-risking Cost…
UPSTREAM AMERICAS STRATEGY Major OECD growth potential for Shell Substantial and diverse resources base Deep-water Heavy Oil Resources Plays Integrated Gas Arctic Industry leadership Mining and in-situ Portfolio repositioning…
BEN VAN BEURDEN CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 13 March, 2014 65
2014 PRIORITIES Returns and cash flow Improve our financial Competitive returns for shareholders performance Enhance our Take hard choices on new options capital efficiency Increase asset sales Reduce pace of growth…
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS MANAGEMENT DAY Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 13 March, 2014 67
KEY UPSTREAM PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION Upstream engine Deep-water Resources plays Integrated gas Future opportunities Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 13 March, 2014 68
PRE-FID UPSTREAM OPTIONS POTENTIAL 2014-2020 START-UPS Upstream engine Deep-water Resources plays Integrated gas Future opportunities Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 13 March, 2014 69
DELIVER NEW PROJECTS 2014 START-UPS Repsol LNG acquisition, 4.2 mtpa Gumusut-Kakap, Shell 33%, 135 kboe/d Mars B, Shell 72%, 100 kboe/d Cardamom, Shell 100%, 50 kboe/d Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 13 March, 2014 71
IMPROVE PERFORMANCE IN UPSTREAM ENGINES OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE: OMAN PDO Oman Production decline halted kboe/day, Shell share focus on up-time 300 reservoir development 200 sub-surface dynamics 100 Innovative EOR schemes 0 2001…
IMPROVE PERFORMANCE IN UPSTREAM ENGINES IMPACT OF MAINTENANCE IN UK NORTH SEA UK 000 boe per day, Shell share 2012 2013 2014 start-ups: Nelson, Anasuria, Shearwater, Pierce, Clair, Pierce, Schiehallion, Pierce, Gannet, 200…
ROBUST LNG MARKET DYNAMICS LNG import countries Diverse and growing market Regional price variations 1990 2013 2020 Regional gas prices LNG supply /mmbtu /mmbtu North West Shelf Sakhalin 450 60 Gorgon North QG4 20 Oman…
INTEGRATED GAS PORTFOLIO LEVERAGING SHELLS SCALE AND MARKET GROWTH Priorities Integrate Repsol LNG acquisition Deliver Prelude + Gorgon Hard choices on next options Elba (MMLS) 2013: 0.7* mboe/d; 20 mtpa LNG Hazira Repsol LNG…
INTEGRATED GAS DEVELOPMENTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION: AUSTRALIA Prelude Floating LNG Gorgon 3.6 mtpa LNG + 1.7 mtpa NGLs 15 mtpa: 3 trains Development drilling commenced Sep 2013 Expansion potential Hull afloat Nov 2013 Shell 25%…
GLOBAL DEEP-WATER LEADING IOC DEEP-WATER PORTFOLIO Established production leadership Malaysia/Brunei Standardized developments & Gumusut-Kakap production technology Malikai Sabah Gas Gulf of Mexico Frontier exploration potential…
ENHANCE CAPITAL EFFICIENCY MANAGING PROJECT FLOW Deep-water IDENTIFY/ASSESS SELECT DEFINE EXECUTE ON STREAM Libra BMS-54 Appomattox Bonga NW Brazil Bosi field development Bonga Main ph3 Cardamom Gulf of Mexico Vito Bonga North Sabah…
IRAQ Majnoon Basrah Gas company First major green field development in Iraq in 30 BGC: largest flare reduction project in the world years delivering gas to domestic market Start-up in Q3 2013 - currently producing 200 On stream1…
IN-SITU HEAVY OIL GROWTH CARMON CREEK Development overview Transportation options Proposed and existing pipelines Proposed East Energy pipeline Tankers Carmon Creek Edmonton Hardisty Central Processing Facilities Site…
SHELL ARCTIC & NEAR ARCTIC SAKHALIN CHUKCHI UNITED STATES Alaska, Chukchi Russia, Sakhalin NIGLINTGAK BEAUFORT CANADA NORTH POLE RUSSIA SALYM BAFFIN BAY KANUMAS Greenland, Baffin Bay GREENLAND KAZAKHSTAN Russia,…
UPSTREAM AMERICAS HSSE Focus on HSSE continues Process safety Injuries TRCF/million working hours million working hours Number of incidents 3 100 90 2 60 50 1 30 0 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 Tier 1 incidents Tier 2…
PROJECTS + TECHNOLOGY: WELLS Example: Malaysia drilling cost Ultra deep-water rig rates Well costs in million 000 /day 600 75 500 4th quartile 400 3rd quartile 50 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2nd quartile Shell…
CONVENTIONAL EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO + SPEND Reloading our acreage portfolio Exploration spend 000 km2 New Zealand billion Turkey Black Sea Indonesia Australia 6 150 Malaysia Norway French Guiana Brazil Guyana 100 Nova Scotia Brunei 4…
2013 CONVENTIONAL EXPLORATION HIGHLIGHTS Frontier: Brazil, Libra entry Heartland: GOM, Vicksburg A NFE: Brunei, Iron Duke 2013 entry into giant pre-salt Deep-water oil discovery 30 mln boe discovered discovery 100 million boe…
EXPLORATION + APPRAISAL: KEY WELLS 2014-2015 Norway Russia LRS Denmark Netherlands Ukraine North America LRS Albania: follow- Turkey Black Sea up exploration Canada: China Nova Scotia deepwater Egypt Turkey LRS US GoM: Oman…
BALANCING GROWTH & RETURNS MANAGEMENT DAY 2014 13 MARCH 2014 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 13 March, 2014 89