Global LNG and SE Asias rapidly emerging need for net imports SE Asias thirst for gas turns global March 2015
Who is Risco Energy Focused on upstream oil & gas asset investment in ASEAN SE Asias thirst for gas www.riscoenergy.com March 2015 2
The energy challenge Dealing with continuous change is the norm Longer term trends set the scene Continuous change is the norm Energy mix The industry is focused now on dealing with rapid change in hydrocarbon prices Energy Demand…
Outline Global LNG: rebalancing pricing and supply LNG: The role of Asia and the rise of Southeast Asia SE Asia LNG in transition: from supplier to major demand market SE Asia: a key contributor to global gas demand growth…
Globally, LNG is rebalancing pricing and supply SE Asias thirst for gas www.riscoenergy.com March 2015 5
Oil-linked LNG prices have halved Oil price linkage has driven LNG prices below recent bands LNG price (Japan landed) (historical and forecast) Source: Credit Suisse 2015 SE Asias thirst for gas www.riscoenergy.com March 2015 6
Tight supply near-term Supply is tight near-term, in 2020s all possible supply needed for demand LNG supply and demand scenarios Source: Credit Suisse 2015 SE Asias thirst for gas www.riscoenergy.com March 2015 7
Energy security: Japan to diversify supply Japan is reducing concentration risk and by diversifying LNG supply sources Japan LNG supply sources 1975-2025 Source: Credit Suisse 2015 SE Asias thirst for gas www.riscoenergy.com March…
Japan is an example of a switch to gas Gas nearly doubled its share of Japans energy mix from 2000 to 2012 at 11.3% Asia key driver of LNG demand growth Source: IEA SE Asias thirst for gas www.riscoenergy.com March 2015 9
Gas & LNG: The role of Asia SE Asias thirst for gas www.riscoenergy.com March 2015 10
Asia: the biggest driver in global LNG trade Asia accounts for 75% of global LNG buying Global LNG import growth (% change yoy) Source: Facts Global Energy, 2015 SE Asias thirst for gas www.riscoenergy.com March 2015 11
Asian LNG demand: Korea & Japan dominate Biggest in the world: Japan and Korea account for 72% of Asias LNG buying Asias LNG buyers By volume (2013) Rest of Asia 17% China 11% Japan 49% South Korea 23% Source: BP…
50% of global gas net imports to Asia by 2035 Asia trumps Europe as World 1 gas importer in 2020s via increased LNG supply Gas trade balances LNG demand by region Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035 SE Asias thirst for gas…
SE Asia LNG in transition: from supplier to major demand market SE Asias thirst for gas www.riscoenergy.com March 2015 14
SE Asian primary energy mix is light on gas Most of SE Asia is well below global average for gas use Primary energy mix by fuel type 100% 2% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 1% 0% 7% 0% 0% 7% 7% 90% 1% 14% 7% 22% 4% 0% 21% 80% 32% 0%…
SE Asian gas and LNG demand rising strongly SE Asia set to become a significant LNG demand market on rising gas demand Asian LNG demand and associated drivers Source: Wood Mackenzie 1Q 2013 SE Asias thirst for gas…
Gas deficits drive rising import need = LNG SE Asias thirst for gas www.riscoenergy.com March 2015 17
SEA LNG regas capacity: big expansion Strongly increasing demand needs supply sources beyond just PNG LNG regas capacity in SE Asia Source: Wood Mackenzie 1Q 2013 SE Asias thirst for gas www.riscoenergy.com March 2015 18
Evolution of SE Asian regas buildout SE Asias thirst for gas www.riscoenergy.com March 2015 19
ASEAN LNG Regas: Existing 6 existing regas facilities Existing Under construction Under development Proposed Map Tha Phut (Phase I) Liquification LNG (OS) = Offshore Arun LNG Lekas LNG (Malacca) Jurong Island LNG…
ASEAN LNG Regas: + Under Construction 1 under construction regas facilities Existing Under construction Under development Philippine LNG Hub (Pagbilao) Proposed Map Tha Phut (Phase I) Liquification LNG (OS) = Offshore Arun…
ASEAN LNG Regas: + Under Development 2 under development regas facilities Existing Under construction Under development Philippine LNG Hub (Pagbilao) Proposed Map Tha Phut (Phase I) Liquification LNG Map Tha Phut (Phase II) (OS)…
ASEAN LNG Regas: + Proposed 19 proposed regas facilities Existing Under construction Under development Philippine LNG Hub (Pagbilao) Proposed Map Tha Phut (Phase I) Son My Ph. 1 A/B, 2 & 3 Liquification LNG Map Tha Phut (Phase…
ASEAN LNG Regas: + Liquification LNG 6 liquification LNG facilities Existing Under construction Under development Philippine LNG Hub (Pagbilao) Proposed Map Tha Phut (Phase I) Son My Ph. 1 A/B, 2 & 3 Liquification LNG Map Tha…
Themes from Indonesias flegling regas build out SE Asias thirst for gas www.riscoenergy.com March 2015 25
Outline Key themes and challenges for successful LNG import integration Build it, but dont assume LNG supply will come Getting gas to demand needs more than pipes Government support essential policy, regulation, strength Japan:…
Build it, but dont assume supply will come LNG regas facilities do not guarantee access to supply Uncontracted LNG supply tight to 2019 Indonesias existing regas capacity…
Getting gas to demand needs pipes Gas needs to reach demand and be viable when it does Integrated and effective movement / downstream Open access to gas markets Open access to market pricing mindset change from producer…
Government support essential Geopolitical and financial aspects to LNG require government support Government to government interaction can help A massive coordination and implementation role Balance sheet needed to secure supply.…
1 Japan: holy grail of energy security The successful end result is providing energy security Japans success in adjusting to events Japan demonstrated an incredible ability to rapidly and significantly adjust its fuel mix with the…
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