BP Energy Outlook 2035 January 2014 bp.com/energyoutlook BPstats 2013_02_15_BP_34621_A5Energy_outlook_LM.indd 2 15/01/2014 14:16
Contents Page Introduction 4 Outlook 2035: Global energy trends 7 Liquid fuels 23 Natural gas 51 Coal and non-fossil fuels 67 Carbon emissions and the fuel mix 79 Appendix 91 Energy Outlook 2035 3 BP 2014
Welcome to the 2014 edition of BPs Energy Outlook. Published for the 4th time, the annual Energy Outlook reflects our best effort to describe a most likely trajectory of the global energy system, based on our views of likely…
On the question of security, our Outlook offers a mixed, though broadly positive, view. Among todays energy importers, the United States is on a path to achieve energy self- sufficiency, while import dependence in Europe, China and…
Note on method and assumptions This edition updates our view of the likely path of global energy markets and extends it to 2035. The underlying methodology remains unchanged we make assumptions on changes in policy, technology and…
Page Introduction 4 Outlook 2035: Global energy trends 7 Liquid fuels 23 Natural gas 51 Coal and non-fossil fuels 67 Carbon emissions and the fuel mix 79 Appendix 91 Energy Outlook 2035 7 BP 2014
Primary energy consumption growth slows... Consumption by region Ten year increments by region Billion toe Billion toe 18 2.8 2.4 Other non- 15 OECD 2.0 Other 12 1.6 India India 1.2 9 0.8 China China 6 0.4 0.0 OECD 3 OECD…
and the growth is almost all in the non-OECD Primary energy demand increases by 41% between 2012 and 2035, with growth averaging 1.5% per annum (p.a.). Growth slows, from 2.2% p.a. for 2005-15, to 1.7% p.a. 2015-25 and just 1.1% p.a.…
The strong impetus from industrialization... Consumption by sector Ten year increments by sector Billion toe Billion toe 18 3.0 Transport 15 2.5 12 2.0 Other Industry 1.5 9 Electricity share 1.0 Other 6 Industry 0.5…
starts to fade toward the end of the forecast By sector, industry remains the dominant source of growth for primary energy consumption, both directly and indirectly (in the form of electricity). Industry accounts for more than half…
The slowdown in China and industry... Consumption by fuel Ten year increments by fuel Billion toe Billion toe 18 3.0 Renew.* Renew.* Hydro 2.5 15 Nuclear Hydro 12 2.0 Nuclear Coal 1.5 Coal 9 1.0 Gas 6 Gas 0.5 Oil 3 Oil…
is reflected in a marked slowdown in coal growth All fuels show growth over the forecast period, with the fastest growth seen in renewables (6.4% p.a.). Nuclear (1.9% p.a.) and hydro-electric power (1.8% p.a.) both grow more rapidly…
New sources help to supply sufficient energy... Primary energy production New energy forms Billion toe Billion toe 18 3 18% FSU Renewables in power S & C America Shale gas 12 2 12% N America Tight oil, Middle East oil sands,…
to meet demand growth World primary energy production grows at 1.5% p.a. from 2012 to 2035, matching consumption growth. Growth is concentrated in the non-OECD, which accounts for almost 80% of the volume increment. There is growth…
Energy is gradually decoupling from economic growth GDP and energy Shares of primary energy Trillion 2012 Billion toe 220 44 50% Oil GDP 40% 170 34 Coal 30% 120 24 20% Gas 70 14 10% Energy Hydro (RHS) Nuclear 20 4 0%…
and the fuel mix is slowly shifting away from fossil fuels Energy consumption grows less rapidly than the global economy, with GDP growth averaging 3.5% p.a. 2012-35. As a result energy intensity, the amount of energy required per…
The power sector takes an increasing share of energy Inputs to power as a share of Primary inputs to power total primary energy 50% 100% World Renew. OECD Gas 40% Non-OECD 75% Nuclear Oil 30% 50% 20% Coal 25% 10% Hydro 0% 0%…
and plays a key role in shaping the fuel mix One of the longest established trends in energy is the increasing role of the power sector. The share of primary energy devoted to power generation rises in industrializing as well as in…
The security and sustainability of energy supply Primary energy net balances Energy and CO2 emissions Billion toe Index: 1965 = 100 4 FSU 500 Africa 2 400 S&C America Middle Energy 0 300 East North America -2 Asia 200 CO2…
continue to pose significant challenges Regional energy imbalances production minus consumption for each region suggest that trading relationships will change significantly by 2035. North America switches from being a net importer of…
Energy Outlook 2035 22 BP 2014
Page Introduction 4 Outlook 2035: Global energy trends 7 Liquid fuels 23 Natural gas 51 Coal and non-fossil fuels 67 Carbon emissions and the fuel mix 79 Appendix 91 Energy Outlook 2035 23 BP 2014
The global liquids balance reflects shifts Demand Supply Mb/d 110 2035 level Crude 105 Other NGLs* 100 Mid East North Other Asia America 95 India Other 90 China 85 80 2012 OECD Non-OECD 2012 Non-OPEC OPEC decline growth…
in non-OECD demand and non-OPEC supply growth Oil is expected to be the slowest growing fuel over the outlook period. Global liquids demand (oil, biofuels, and other liquids) nonetheless is likely to rise by around 19 Mb/d, to reach…
Asia and the Middle East drive liquids demand growth Demand by region Five year increments Mb/d Mb/d 120 2.5 India Middle East 100 Other 2.0 China 80 Middle East 1.5 India 60 China 1.0 40 US 0.5 20 Other OECD 0 0.0 1965…
with growth in India overtaking China by 2035 Global liquids consumption is projected to reach 109 Mb/d by 2035 but growth continues to slow (from 1.3% p.a. in 2000-12 to 0.6% for 2025-35). OECD consumption is projected to fall by 8…
Liquids demand growth is largest in non-OECD transport... Demand by sector Five year increments Mb/d Mb/d 120 4 Industry Non-OECD 100 Transport transport 3 80 OECD transport 60 Non-OECD 2 ind. & other 40 OECD ind. & other 1 20…
but growth in industry becomes increasingly important By sector, liquids demand growth to 2035 comes primarily from non- OECD transport (16.6 Mb/d) due to a rapid increase in vehicle ownership and from non-OECD industry (8.7 Mb/d,…
Supply growth is supported initially by unconventionals Liquids supply by type Tight oil supply Mb/d Mb/d 12 9% 120 Russia % of total China (RHS) OPEC NGLs South America 100 Canada & Mexico OPEC crude US 80 8 6% Biofuels 60 Oil…
pushing the need for OPEC growth to later in the outlook Liquids supply will expand by over 18 Mb/d with non-OPEC production contributing nearly 11 Mb/d of growth and OPEC crude and NGLs accounting for the rest. Unconventionals will…
Oil balances suggest OPEC will be challenged OPEC spare capacity OPEC share of global supply Mb/d Mb/d Spare capacity 50% 10 40 Call on OPEC (RHS) 45% 8 30 6 40% 4 35% 20 2 30% 0 10 25% 1975 1995 2015 2035 1975 1995 2015…
but the experience of the 1980s is unlikely to be repeated In our outlook, demand growth slows and non-OPEC supplies rise both as a result of high prices. We assume that OPEC members cut production over the current decade. As a…
Supply disruptions reduce the immediate impact on OPEC Recent disruptions Historical disruptions Change since 4Q10, Mb/d Change from pre-disruption level*, Mb/d 3 Sudans Syria 2 Iran US Iran (1979) Libya (1970) Libya Net 1 Iraq…
and history suggests recovery will take time Since the advent of the Arab Spring in 2011, supply disruptions have become a key feature of todays oil market. Libyan production suffered a complete shutdown in early 2011, followed by…
OPEC countries face pressure from rising populations Population GDP per capita OPEC exports Index: 1975 = 100 Index: 1975 = 100 Mb/d and Bcf/d 400 800 40 OPEC Oil Other non-OECD Gas OECD 300 600 30 200 400 20 100 200 10…
booming energy demand and limited economic growth High population growth, limited economic opportunities, and the burden of high energy demand (largely due to subsidies) create pressures on OPEC (and other oil-producing) countries.…
Oil trade continues to shift from West to East US: sources Regional imbalances China: sources of supply of supply Mb/d Mb/d Mb/d 30 75 Middle East FSU 30 Net imports Tight oil Europe Asia Pacific 25 Other supply 50 Africa S&C…
but Asias import needs go beyond the Middle East In the US, the increase in tight oil production coupled with declining demand will continue the dramatic shift in import dependence. Imports are set to decline from a peak of well over…
The growth of alternatives will challenge refiners Cumulative liquids supply growth Cumulative liquids demand growth Mb/d Mb/d US crude OPEC crude 20 20 Light distillates RoW crude Condensate Middle distillates NGLs Biofuels 15 15…
as will demand growth trends and crude market dynamics Liquids supply growth comprises a variety of sources; of total liquids supply growth to 2035 of around 19 Mb/d, about 7 Mb/d comes from NGLs, biofuels and other liquids that do…
Global transport demand growth slows Transport demand by fuel Five year increments by fuel Billion toe Mtoe 3 200 Electricity Gas 150 2 Coal Biofuels 100 Oil: 1 Road 50 Non-road 0 0 1980 1991 2002 2013 2024 2035 2010- 2015-…
as prices and policy boost vehicle fuel economy Energy consumption growth in transport slows to 1.1% p.a. between 2012 and 2035 (from 1.9% p.a. 1990-2012) primarily due to accelerating gains in fuel economy. Other factors include the…
Vehicle numbers are set to grow rapidly in the non-OECD Vehicle fleet Vehicle ownership Transport demand Billions Vehicles per 1000 capita Billion toe 2.5 800 3 US 2.0 Germany 600 Japan 2 1.5 400 China Non-OECD 1.0 Non-OECD 1…
while OECD growth slows due to saturation The global vehicle fleet (commercial vehicles and passenger cars) grows rapidly more than doubling from around 1.1 billion today to 2.3 billion by 2035. Most of the growth is in the…
Policy and technology enable efficiency improvements Fuel economy of new cars Vehicle sales by type Litres per 100 km* 20 100% Plug-ins incl. EU BEVs US light vehicles 80% 15 China Full hybrid 60% Mild hybrid 10 40%…
as the vehicle fleet gradually shifts to hybrids Fuel economy has been improving in recent years at rates not seen since the period after the first oil price shock in 1973. Recent gains have been driven by consumer reaction to rising…
Efficiency has the biggest impact on oil in road transport Mb/d Oil demand in road transport 80 70 Non-OECD 60 Non-OECD OECD 50 40 OECD 30 2012 Increased Reduced Improved Increased 2035 number of average vehicle use…
but alternative fuels play a greater role post 2030 Assuming no changes to vehicle usage, efficiency and the use of alternatives, oil demand in road transport would increase by a massive 40 Mb/d over the forecast, more than double our…
Energy Outlook 2035 50 BP 2014
Page Introduction 4 Outlook 2035: Global energy trends 7 Liquid fuels 23 Natural gas 51 Coal and non-fossil fuels 67 Carbon emissions and the fuel mix 79 Appendix 91 Energy Outlook 2035 51 BP 2014
Natural gas demand continues its steady growth Demand by region Demand by sector Bcf/d 500 100% China Other non-OECD Other Transport 400 80% Middle East Other OECD 300 60% North America Power 200 40% 100 20% Industry 0 0%…
in all regions and all sectors Global demand for natural gas will grow by 1.9% p.a. over the outlook period, reaching 497 Bcf/d by 2035, with non-OECD growth (2.7% p.a.) outpacing the OECD (1% p.a.). In the OECD, gas will overtake…
Shale gas shows the fastest production growth Gas production by type and region Shale gas production Bcf/d Bcf/d 500 120 Rest of world 24% Non-OECD other China Non-OECD shale Europe & Eurasia 400 OECD shale Canada & Mexico 80 US…
but conventional sources provide the largest increment Global gas supply is expected to grow by 1.9% p.a. or 172 Bcf/d over the outlook period, reaching a total of 497 Bcf/d by 2035. Shale gas is the fastest growing source of supply…
Gas trade continues to expand Regional net exports Imports share of consumption Bcf/d FSU Africa 120 40% Middle East S & C America N America Europe Total 80 Asia Pacific 30% 40 Pipeline 0 20% -40 10% LNG -80 -120 0%…
with Asia overtaking Europe as the key importing region Net inter-regional imbalances are expected to more than double in our forecast, growing by 4% p.a. or 53 Bcf/d. The expansion of trade is driven by Asia Pacific where imports…
Differences in the prospects for unconventional gas Sources of gas supply by region Europe China Bcf/d North America Bcf/d Bcf/d 120 120 120 Net pipeline import Net LNG import 100 100 100 Shale gas Other unconventional 80 80 80…
shape regional supply patterns North American unconventional gas supplies will grow by 3.4% p.a. over the forecast period, more than offsetting the 2.3% p.a. decline in conventional production, and allowing domestic supply to grow by…
The shale revolution in the US provides an example US oil and gas supply Gas share of US sector demand Billion toe 1.6 45% Industry 1.2 Oil 30% Power 0.8 15% Gas 0.4 Transport 0.0 0% 1970 1983 1996 2009 2022 2035 1965 2000…
of how energy markets adjust US shale gas output will grow by 4.3% p.a. between 2012 and 2035, enabling US gas production to rise by 45%. This is causing a series of adjustments in energy markets; some already evident, others…
Shale gas will completely change the US gas trade picture US natural gas net exports Share of global LNG trade Bcf/d 15 80% LNG Pipeline 10 60% US Total Australia 5 40% Africa 0 20% Qatar -5 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030…
with a profound impact on global LNG trade Perhaps the most dramatic adjustments to shale gas are seen in trade flows. The US is set to shift from a net importer of gas today to a net exporter in 2018, with net exports reaching 10.6…
US shale gas not only offsets declines in conventional supply Demand and trade Production Bcf/d 100 2035 level LNG 90 Pipeline Other 80 Transport Industry 70 Power 60 50 2012 Demand Net trade 2012 Non-shale Shale growth…
but also accommodates demand growth and shifts in trade US domestic gas production has been revitalized by the shale gas revolution. US shale gas output by 2029 will exceed the highest level ever achieved by conventional gas…
Energy Outlook 2035 66 BP 2014
Page Introduction 4 Outlook 2035: Global energy trends 7 Liquid fuels 23 Natural gas 51 Coal and non-fossil fuels 67 Carbon emissions and the fuel mix 79 Appendix 91 Energy Outlook 2035 67 BP 2014
Coal consumption growth slows in the non-OECD Consumption by region Ten year increments by region Billion toe Billion toe 5 1.2 Other non-OECD Other India 4 0.9 India China 3 0.6 OECD LNG Russian pipeline China 0.3 2 FSU…
while the OECD reduces its reliance on coal Global coal consumption rises by 1.1% p.a. in 2012-35. Consumption continues to grow in the non-OECD (1.6% p.a.), offsetting the decline in the OECD (-0.9% p.a.). China and India combined…
Coal loses market share Coal share in sector Coal share in primary energy 60% Power Industry 90% Other Transport 40% 60% China India Other OECD 20% 30% 0% 0% 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 70 BP 2014
as the global economy gradually switches to cleaner fuels Coals share declines in all sectors. In power generation, the largest coal consuming sector, the share of coal will decline from 43% in 2012 to 37% by 2035, as renewables gain…
Renewables lead the growth of non-fossil fuels in the OECD OECD Non-OECD Billion toe Billion toe 2 2 Biofuels Renewables Nuclear Hydro 1 1 0 0 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 72 BP 2014
while growth is more evenly spread in the non-OECD In aggregate, non-fossil fuels grow faster than total energy consumption in both the OECD (1.8% p.a.) and the non-OECD (4.3% p.a.): between 2012 and 2035 the non-fossil share of…
Renewables in power gain share most rapidly in Europe Renewables share of power Renewables growth 2012 to 2035 Thousand TWh 35% 1.2 EU 30% US 0.9 25% China 20% 0.6 15% 10% 0.3 5% 0% 0.0 1990 2005 2020 2035 China EU US OECD…
while China adds the most volume The deployment of renewables for power has been led by Europe, with a strong policy push in the EU in particular; the EU will continue to have the highest penetration rates of renewables worldwide.…
Global nuclear power production rises Nuclear generation by region Share of nuclear in primary energy Thousand TWh 4 China 12% Non-OECD Rest of world OECD 3 Asia excl. China 9% World EU US 2 6% 1 3% 0 0% 1965 2000 2035 1965…
on the back of growth in China, Russia and India Global nuclear energy is projected to grow by 1.9% p.a. between 2012 and 2035. However, as a share of global primary energy demand, nuclear power peaked in 2001 and is not expected to…
Energy Outlook 2035 78 BP 2014
Page Introduction 4 Outlook 2035: Global energy trends 7 Liquid fuels 23 Natural gas 51 Coal and non-fossil fuels 67 Carbon emissions and the fuel mix 79 Appendix 91 Energy Outlook 2035 79 BP 2014
CO2 emissions from energy use continue to rise Emissions by region Emissions per capita Billion tonnes CO2 Tonnes CO2 45 25 36 20 US 27 15 IEA 450 Scenario EU 10 China 18 Non-OECD World 9 5 OECD India 0 0 1965 2000 2035…
with per capita emissions declining in the OECD Global CO2 emissions from energy use grow by 29% or 1.1% p.a. over the forecasting period. Policies to curb emissions continue to tighten, and the rate of growth of emissions declines,…
Energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy Energy intensity Carbon intensity Toe per thousand 2012 GDP Tonnes CO2 per toe 0.4 4 China US India 0.3 EU 3 World 0.2 2 0.1 1 0.0 0 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035…
follow different patterns Given economic growth, CO2 emissions depend on energy intensity (the amount of energy used per unit of GDP) and carbon intensity or the carbon content of the energy mix (carbon per unit of energy). Global…
The fuel mix diversifies over time Evolution of the fuel mix in 20 major countries Share of dominant fuel 100% China 80% Euro4* China 60% 40% US US EU 20% 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 *France,…
and becomes less carbon intensive as a by-product Historically, as economies grew richer and more sophisticated, the fuel mix became more diversified. The scope for changes in the fuel mix depends on technology, resource endowments…
The power sector is the main driver of fuel mix changes Share of power sector fuel consumption North America EU China Other non-OECD Asia 90% Coal Gas 60% 30% 0% 1990 1990 2035 1990 2035 1990 20351990 2035 1990 2035…
with different regional outcomes for coal-gas competition The power sector, where all fuels compete, is the largest and most diversified driver of the global fuel mix. The global competition between coal and natural gas gives an…
Energy efficiency is restraining emissions growth GDP, energy and emissions Emissions growth 2012 to 2035 Index: 1990 = 100 Billion tonnes CO2 500 35 30 400 GDP Energy 25 intensity 20 300 15 Energy Fuel mix 10 200 5 CO2 100…
but fuel mix changes remain a missed opportunity The widening gap between GDP and energy consumption illustrates the impact of falling energy intensity; and the gap between energy and CO2 emissions reflects changes in carbon…
Conclusion Meeting the global energy challenge Sufficient and available Yes new energy sources and efficiency improvements Secure and reliable Mixed improving for some, a concern for others Sustainable Room for improvement…
Page Introduction 4 Outlook 2035: Global energy trends 7 Liquid fuels 23 Natural gas 51 Coal and non-fossil fuels 67 Carbon emissions and the fuel mix 79 Appendix 91 Energy Outlook 2035 91 BP 2014
Key changes versus last years Outlook... Changes in 2030 levels versus the January 2013 Outlook Revised down Revised up N. America fossil fuel supply Coal Oil Gas Asia Pacific fossil fuel supply Middle East oil & gas supply Bio…
result in little net change in total energy Our aggregate projection for world energy demand and supply is little changed since our last Outlook down by about 0.2% in 2030. North Americas oil and natural gas supply outlook has been…
Comparison with other outlooks: the key difference Growth of energy consumption, 2010-2035 Billion toe Billion toe 7 7 Other Nuclear Coal Non-OECD 6 OECD 6 Gas Liquids 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 IEA NPS EIA BP IEA CPS IEA NPS EIA…
lies in different views on non-OECD prospects Our Outlook is based on a most likely assessment of future policy trends. In that respect it differs from the energy projections published by the IEA and the EIA, which are based on…
Data sources BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, June 2013 Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, Heston, A., Summers, R., Aten, B.,…
Loading...
