The U.S. Shale Revolution A Game Changer for the Country September 2014
Agenda: The U.S. Shale Revolution Started with Natural Gas Shifted to Oil in 2009 Pioneer is a Leader Focusing on Sustainability Lifting the U.S. Oil Export Ban a Priority 3
Pioneer At A Glance 30 B 3.0 B 11 BBOE Top U.S. Fields By Rig Count2 Current 2014 Planned Proved 321 (Pioneer Operated Count in Green 41 rigs) Enterprise Drilling CapEx Reserves + Value Net Resource 212 194 Potential 178 77 72 64…
What is Shale Shale is a fine-grained clastic sedimentary rock composed primarily of: organic matter clay other minerals (e.g. quartz, feldspar and calcite) Shales containing high amounts of organic matter (generally 2% by weight…
Conventional vs. Unconventional Development Conventional Unconventional High permeability Ultra tight rock Minimal frac Large hydraulic frac Localized Widespread Trap Kerogen Content Seal Maturity Source Clay Content…
Three Factors Spark the U.S. Shale Revolution Horizontal drilling technology Horizontal hydraulic fracture stimulation technology Strong commodity prices Brief video to follow 7
Technology Used to Unlock Shale Oil & Gas 8 Source: American Petroleum Institute
U.S. Shale Plays 2,700 TCF of recoverable shale gas and 150 BBOE of recoverable shale oil resources exist from discovered U.S. shale plays alone Source: EIA, ANGA and internal sources 9
Worldwide Shale Deposits Due to high cost structure, lack of midstream infrastructure and political instability, international shale development has lagged the U.S. Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI 10
U.S. Shale Revolution: It Started with Natural Gas
Primary Sources of U.S. Shale Gas Growth Bakken Antrim Marcellus Woodford Fayetteville Permian Barnett Haynesville Delaware Basin Eagle Ford Midland Basin 12
U.S. Gas Production Growth Shale drilling has driven substantial gas 70 production growth in the U.S. since 2005 66 67 65 63 60 58 57 55 Bcf/d 55 54 52 53 52 53 52 52 52 51 51 50 49 45 40 13 Source: EIA
Oversupply Has Driven Gas Prices Down Henry Hub Natural Gas Price (/Mcf) Gas Supply Bubble Tight Supply Perception Over Supply from Shale 2.30/Mcf 6.20/Mcf 4.00/Mcf 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 - 14
The Result in Shale Gas Has Been Game Changing U.S. Dry Shale Gas Production Bcf/d Marcellus (PA & WV) Haynesville (LA & TX) 40 Eagle Ford (TX) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Woodford (OK) 35 Bakken (ND) Antrim (MI, IN, & OH)…
Barnett Shale Started the U.S. Shale Gas Revolution Since 1997, more than 17,000 gas wells completed in the Barnett Shale 1997 2014 Source: EIA; Updated From Richard Newell, Paris June 2011 Presentation; well count from IHS…
Gas Rigs Follow Commodity Prices 1,800 1,600 Gas Rigs 1,400 1,200 U.S. Rig Count 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 17 Source: Baker Hughes
U.S. Gas Production Forecast U.S. shale gas expected to drive total gas production growth to contribute 50% of total U.S. gas output by 2040 120 Historical 2014 Projected 100 Natural Gas Production (BCF/D) 80 Shale Gas…
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption Forecast U.S. natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial and transportation use 80 Today 2040 Transportation +2.7 BCF/D 70 Natural Gas Demand (BCF/D) 60 Electric Power…
Natural Gas Fueling U.S. Electric Power Generation Growth Clean, cheap natural gas has encouraged coal-to-gas switching among electricity producers helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. Previous Power Current Power…
U.S. Chemical Industry Growth IHS forecasts the chemical industry will add 90 MM tons of new capacity and spend 100 B on new chemicals and plastics manufacturing plants by 2025 21 Source: IHS Chemical
Natural Gas Use in Transportation Sector Increasing Cheap natural gas expected to become substantially larger component of U.S. transportation fuel mix trillion Btu Bcf/d Approximate crude oil equivalent, (thousand barrels per…
U.S. Will Soon Be a Net Exporter of Natural Gas U.S. dry natural gas TCF per year Bcf/d History 2012 Projections 100 75 Consumption 50 Domestic supply 25 Net exports 0 -25 23 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook…
Gas Supply & Low Prices Have Ignited Growth of LNG Export Projects 21 Approved or Proposed North American LNG Export Projects Proposed LNG Projects U.S. Liquefaction Projects Aggregate Total = 36 Bcf/d Canada Liquefaction…
U.S. Shale Revolution: Shifted to Oil in 2009
Primary Sources of Domestic Oil Growth Bakken Niobrara SCOOP Permian Midland Basin Spraberry/Wolfcamp 75 BBOE Recoverable Resource Potential Delaware Basin Eagle Ford Deepwater Gulf of Mexico 26
U.S. Oil Production Growth U.S. Production Alaska North Slope Oil Shale Revolution Peaks in 1970 begins to declines Begins in 2009 12 8.8 MMbbls/d 10 Sept 2014 Oil Production per Day (MMBbls/d) 8 +70% 6 4 2 0…
Rig Mix Changed with Commodity Price Shift 1,800 1,600 Gas Rigs 1,400 1,200 U.S. Rig Count 1,000 800 600 400 200 Oil Rigs 0 29 Source: Baker Hughes
Rig Count Influenced by Commodity Price 192/+44 5/-7 OTHER ROCKIES WILLISTON 2/-2 34/+16 MICHIGAN POWDER RIVER MARCELLUS WIND RIVER OTHER 7/-1 DRY 19/-16 67/+37MIDCONTINENT 53/-48 GREEN RIVER ILLINOIS D-J 49/+4 123/+54…
U.S. Sources of Shale Oil Growth Shale Oil Production million barrels of oil per day Eagle Ford (TX) 4.5 Bakken (MT & ND) Permian (TX & NM) 4.0 Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY) Haynesville 3.5 Utica (OH, PA & WV) Marcellus 3.0 Woodford…
Global Implications of U.S. Game-Changing Growth OPEC Production ranked from highest (Saudi Arabia) to lowest per 2013 IEA reported production volumes, OPEC Neutral Zone production split between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Sources: IEA…
Top 10 Liquids Producing Countries U.S. forecasted to become the 1 liquids producer in the world in 2015 OPEC Neutral Zone production split between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. 33 Source: IEA for OPEC Crude Production, Rystad Energy for…
Outlook for Total U.S. Liquids Production Source: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2013, Table 5.1b. Forecast from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Various Sources 34
Pioneer: a Leader in the U.S. Oil Shale Revolution
Geology of the Permian Basin Spraberry/Wolfcamp is located in the Midland Basin of the Permian Basin, Texas It was discovered in 1948 and commenced production in 1949 Spraberry/ Wolfcamp 36 Map Source: Montgomery e all, 2000;…
Midland Basin: Stacked Play Potential Midland Basin Red intervals indicate hydrocarbons Clear Fork Petrophysical analysis indicates significantly more oil in place in the Wolfcamp and Spraberry Shale intervals in the Midland U.…
Northern Spraberry/Wolfcamp Horizontal Drilling Program to Date Lower Wolfcamp Wolfcamp Wolfcamp Spraberry Pioneer holds the largest D B A Shale Spraberry/Wolfcamp acreage Upper Spraberry position Middle Spraberry To date, Pioneer…
Average Production for Northern Horizontal Wells Drilled to Date1 Lower Spraberry Shale: 7-well average in 4 counties; 6,200 avg. lateral length Updated Late July 2,000 Wolfcamp D: 6-well average in 3 counties; 7,500 avg. lateral…
Largest U.S. Oil Fields Estimated Recoverable Resource (BBOE)1 0 25 50 75 Spraberry/Wolfcamp Eagle Ford Shale Prudhoe Bay, AK Bakken Shale Delaware Basin East Texas Basin Midway-Sunset, CA Wilmington, CA Kuparuk River, AK Kern…
Pioneers Significant Proved Reserves and Recoverable Resource Potential1 Proved Reserves + Estimated Net Recoverable Resource Potential of 11 BBOE 22,000 Horizontal Drilling Locations 12/31/13 Proved Reserves: 845 MMBOE2 Additional…
Spraberry/Wolfcamp Horizontal Production Growth Profile PXDs 80 HZ Rig Growth Scenario PXDs 120 HZ Rig Growth Scenario PXD adds 5 HZ rigs/year for 10 years PXD adds 10 HZ rigs/year for 10 years Assumes strip pricing for oil & gas1…
Developing 10-Year Growth Plan for Spraberry/Wolfcamp Optimized Marketing/ Procurement/ Development Plan Takeaway Gas Processing Services Cushing Keystone South Seaway Permian Basin Wink GC Market Pioneer is…
Focusing on Sustainability
Fracture Stimulation Chemicals Disclosure FracFocus.org created by GWPC and IOGCC 821 companies participating Data posted on more than 77,000 wells 45
Air and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions U.S. Greenhouse Gas emissions are lower due in large part to natural gas substitution for coal Cumulative Change in U.S. Greenhouse Natural Gas = Fewer Emissions Gas Emissions Since 2000 1,200…
Reducing Fresh Water Use The oil and gas industry uses less than 1% of water in Texas1 Pioneer is committed to reducing its fresh water use by: Using effluent, non-potable wastewater from local municipalities Recycling and reusing…
Lifting the U.S. Oil Export Ban a Priority
U.S. Imports, Exports and Production 12 U.S. shale is a game changer Crude Imports 10 Million Barrels Per Day (MMbbl/d) 8 (30%) Oil Production 6 +70% 4 +100% 2 Refined Product Exports - 49 Source: EIA through…
U.S. Oil & Condensate Production Forecast by Grade Sept History 2014 Forecast 12 10 8.8 MMBPD Production (MMBPD) 8 Light 6 (40 to 50 API) 4 2 Medium Heavy 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018…
Oil Demand Driven By Emerging Economies Demand driven by China, India and emerging markets 51
U.S. Refinery System Overview U.S. is the largest refiner of crude in the world The U.S. refining system complex is geared toward heavy crude PADD 4: Rocky PADD 2: Mountains Midwest PADD 4: 17 refineries 26 refineries West Coast…
U.S. PADD III (Gulf Coast) Crude Imports Since 2005 Essentially all waterborne light crude imports have been displaced 1.4 MMBPD of Light Sour/Medium imports remain (next to be displaced) Heavy imports will remain due to refinery…
Eagle Ford Shale Condensate Exports US Department of Commerce confirmed that condensate processed through a distillation unit (stabilizer) at PXDs Eagle Distillation Unit (Stabilizer) Ford Shale central gathering plants is a…
The Foreseeable Consequences of Inaction Producers will be forced to lay down rigs Production growth will stall and production will quickly decline A substantial portion of domestic natural gas production is associated with oil…
Benefits of Lifting the Crude Export Ban Report from Brookings Institute finds lifting the ban will: Increase U.S. oil production by 1.3 MMBOPD Diversify and increase global oil supply Reduce U.S. gasoline prices by 0.04/gal to…