2011 Investor Update www.conocophillips.com/investor May 2011
Uniquely Positioned to Create Value Cash from Operations 16% OECD portfolio OECD ROCE expansion 84% NonOECD 92 B Capital Employed Margin enhancement 9% Per share growth E&P 25% 66% R&M Other Increasing shareholder…
Strategic Objectives Improve ROCE Expand margins per BOE Maintain capital discipline Portfolio optimization Grow per share Reserves and production Earnings and cash flow Increase distributions Annual dividend increases Share…
Delivering Shareholder Value ROCE increased from 7% to 10% Delivered constrained capital program Executed 7 B in asset sales Sold 9 B in LUKOIL shares Debt reduced by 5 B On track to deliver per share growth E&P organic reserve…
Key 2011 / 2012 Initiatives Disciplined 28 B capital program Additional 510 B in asset sales 10+ B in share repurchases 100%+ reserve replacement Reduce refining capacity Continued ROCE and CROCE improvement 5
Improving Return on Capital Employed % of Total Capital Employed 100% 90% 80% 52% 70% 58% 62% All Other 60% 50% 40% 26% 30% 24% 20% R&M 20% 10% 22% 18% 18% L48 & Canada Gas 0% 2009 2011E 2013E 7% ROCE 10% ROCE 15% ROCE…
Growth in Returns Capital Efficiency ROCE and CROCE Reduced NA gas and refining 30% ROCE CROCE Continued capital discipline 25% Improved cash margins 20% Increased prices and margins 15% Repurchased shares accelerate 10%…
Production per Share Growth BOE Production / Share 0.58 Nearterm production A GR C decrease offset by share 0.54 5% repurchase program 0.50 Absolute production 0.46 growth expected long term 0.42 0.38 2011E 2012E 2013E…
Shareholder Distributions 12 Share Repurchase Dividend 10 8 per share 6 4 2 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E Dividend/Share 1.44 1.64 1.88 1.91 2.15 2.64 Dividend 2.3 B 2.7 B 2.9 B 2.8 B 3.2 B 3.6 B Share Repurchase…
2011 / 2012 Cash Sources and Uses B 70 60 50 510 28 40 Additional Share Repurchases 30 39 Additional Capex 7 2 20 11 10 10 611 0 Beginning Cash & Cash from Asset Sales Capital Program Debt Reduction Share Available Cash…
Cash Flow Sensitivity 25 Capital Program Dividend 22 CFO 20 19 15 16 B 10 5 0 (15%) First Call 2011 +15% WTI 86 WTI 101 WTI 116 HH 3.8 HH 4.5 HH 5.2 GC321 9.9 GC321 11.7 GC321 13.4 Sustainable Program * Uses…
2011 Capital Program By Segment By Region By Type 13.5 B 13.5 B 13.5 B R&M Refining & Other Asia 1.5 1.2 Pacific Maintenance 2.8 1.5 Exploration Europe, 1.7 Africa & Mideast 3.6 Exploitation 2.6 E&P 12.0 North Major…
Asset Dispositions Impacts Asset Value Production Reserves 2011 2012 E&P assets 50100 200400 Downstream assets 510 B MBOED MMBOE Other assets Potential Dispositions Nonstrategic North Sea assets Additional North America…
Strategy Implementation LongTerm Key Metrics 2010 Position 2013 Outlook Expectation E&P 5year Reserve Replacement 111% 100%+ 100%+ E&P Production MMBOED 1.75 1.6 1.7 2 3% growth Annual E&P Production per Share1 .45 5% growth 3 5%…
Delivering Shareholder Value 100%+ reserves replacement Strong OECDbased cash flow Continued asset sales Production/share growth Pipeline of growth projects Improved returns Disciplined capital investment EPS/CFPS growth…
Exploration & Production Objectives Safety and operational excellence 100%+ organic reserve replacement 2 3% longterm production growth Convert 10 BBOE resources to reserves over 10 years Competitive F&D cost Highimpact…
Global Overview Alaska North Sea Russia / Caspian 240 MBOED 350 MBOED 50 MBOED Largest oil & gas High value exploitation Large resource potential producer & major projects Canada 270 MBOED Asia Pacific Lower 48 World class SAGD1…
Funding Growth and Enhancing Returns Progressing major projects 12 key sanctions in 2011 500 MBOED from startups by 2015 Growing North America liquids production 170 MBOED from L48 shale and Permian by 2013 Maintaining gas price…
Discovered Resource YE2010 Resource by Product YE2010 Resource by Location Russia Middle East Caspian & Africa Lower 48 Gas 25% Asia Pacific Non conventional Alaska North Sea LNG 8% Canada Liquids Arctic Conventional…
Proved Reserves Replacement Reserves Replacement 2011 2015 Reserve Additions 200% Russia Exploration Caspian 2010 Organic Middle East RRR = 138% & Africa 150% Lower 48 100% Asia Pacific Alaska 50% North Sea Canada…
Major Project Startups Alaska Canada Arctic North Sea Alpine West (CD5) Parsons Lake Jasmine Lookout (CD6) Amaluigak Britannia LTCP1 ANS gas Umiak Ekofisk South Ugnu Eldfisk II Clair Ridge Canada SAGD Rivers Phase II Caspian China…
Production Outlook Production by Product MMBOED Sources of Growth 2.5 Liquids LNG Int'l gas N America gas Asia Pacific APLNG, Malaysia, Indonesia 2.0 North Sea Jasmine, Clair, Ekofisk, Eldfisk 1.5 Caspian 1.0 Kashagan L48…
20112015 New Production Volumes MBOED Asset / Region 2010 Cash Margins 800 Rest of World Various Other L48 & 14 40 / BOE 600 W Canada North Sea 29 / BOE 400 SAGD 30 / BOE L48 liquids growth 31 / BOE 200 Asia Pacific 35…
2011 Capital Program Capital B Major Projects Maintenance Major projects Other Exploitation Exploration & appraisal 14 12 Eagle Ford Caspian 10 1 Malaysia C MWC 8 6 Canada SAGD APLNG 4 North Sea 2 0 2009 2010…
North America Business Overview Western North Slope Greater Kuparuk Greater Prudhoe North Slope Gas 5 BBOE+ proved reserves Cook Inlet Mackenzie Delta HBP acreage with significant Horn River Montney Thornbury / Clyden /…
2011 L48 & W Canada Programs Drilling Program = 2.9 B1 2011 Total Production Other Other Offshore GOM Panhandle/Anadarko Cedar Creek Anticline Cedar Creek Anticline Offshore GOM Permian WCG Permian San Juan Conventional d l e…
2011 L48 Drilling Activity Cedar Creek 109 Bakken Anticline 4 San Juan 195 Panhandle / 24 Anadarko 60 Barnett Permian 141 2011 Target gross wells 144 Liquids growth areas Lobo 14 Eagle Ford Other core area 4 GOM 29
L48 and W Canada Production Outlook Product Type % Production MBOED 100% 800 80% 600 60% 400 40% 200 20% 0% 0 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Liquids Gas Increasing liquids yield driving improved cash…
North America Summary North America Cash Flow Develop liquids rich areas 26% Grow SAGD production 2015E 74% 40% 5% Exploit legacy position in Alaska increase in cash from increase in ROCE ops 14% Advance new…
Exploration Increased focus on highimpact exploration Discovered resources exceed production Increased appraisal spend for recent successes Building and high grading portfolio Expand deepwater footprint Add conventional…
Exploration & Appraisal Capital Capital Distribution Lease access 5% 20% Includes Angola deepwater and shale plays 2011 40% 1.7 B 35% Appraisal drilling Includes Australia, GOM, Indonesia, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Barnett…
2011 Exploration & Appraisal Activity North Atlantic & Europe Greenland: Baffin Bay seismic North America onshore Norway: Peking Duck HPHT wildcat Canada: Deep Basin, Horn River, Montney Poland: Shale pilot program US: Eagle Ford,…
Downstream Objectives Global Refining Capacity MMBD Drive operational excellence Improve ROCE 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.9 Reduce refining capacity 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Maximize upstream Downstream ROCE integration value Improve…
Downstream Portfolio Restructuring Reduce 500 MBD capacity Top Screening criteria Upstream integration Financial performance Strategic Fit Middle Competitive position ROCE by Refining System Bottom ROCE Threshold…
DCP Midstream Joint Venture 50 / 50 JV with Spectra Energy Largest U.S. NGL producer Increased demand for natural gas infrastructure 500 MM/year average distribution to COP over last five years COP 2010 ROCE 30% Includes…
Chevron Phillips Chemical JV 50 / 50 JV with Chevron QChem II (2010) and Saudi Polymers (2011) start up 2010 strongest year since formation in 2000 300 MM/year average distribution to COP over last five years COP 2010…
Creating Shareholder Value Improved Strengthened production per balance sheet share Improved E&P Share price Higher capital income and cash appreciation efficiency flow per BOE Improved R&M Consistent and other…
Appendix
2011 Sensitivities MM 1/BBL Crude Worldwide E&P 140 Worldwide R&M (fixed & other coproducts) (20) Net Crude Impact 120 1/MMBtu Natural Gas Worldwide E&P 600 Worldwide R&M (utilities) (100) Net Gas Impact 500 1/BBL Refining…
Other Drivers 2011 2012 Selected Items Estimates Selected Items Estimates Corporate 1.1 B (aftertax) Corporate 1.1 B (aftertax) Pension funding: 0.9 B Pension funding: 0.7 B US: 0.7 B US: 0.5 B Intl: 0.2 B Intl: 0.2 B PreTax…
COP NonGAAP Reconciliations Capital Program MM 2011 2009 2010 Budget E&P Capital expenditures and investments 8,899 8,493 11,300 Loans and advances 175 113 - Joint venture acquisition obligation--principal 625 659 700 E&P total…
COP NonGAAP Reconciliations 2 Lower 48 Asia Pacific 2010 2010 GAAP CFOA - MM 3,198 GAAP CFOA - MM 2,656 GAAP CFOA - / BOE 19.82 GAAP CFOA - / BOE 38.61 excluded GAAP items - MM excluded GAAP items - MM asset impairments 19 asset…
COP NonGAAP Reconciliations R&M - ROCE 2003 - 2010 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average Numerator (MM) Net income 1,272 2,743 4,173 4,481 5,923 2,322 37 192 After-tax interest expense - - - - - - - - GAAP ROCE earnings 1,272…
Major Projects Gross Peak Current Project Startup Region Significant Project WI% Production Phase MBOED Eagle Ford 95 TBD1 Execute/Operate Lower 48 Golden Pass 12 Execute Canada Christina Lake C 50 402 Execute United…
Major Projects Gross Peak Current Project Startup Region Significant Project WI% Production Phase MBOED Lower 48 Tiber 18 TBD1 Appraise Christina Lake D 50 402 Execute Foster Creek F/G/H 50 902 Define Christina Lake E 50…
Major Projects Gross Peak Current Project Startup Region Significant Project WI% Production Phase MBOED Alpine West (CD5) 78 10 15 Define Lookout (CD6) 78 15 20 Optimize Alaska ANS Gas 36 600 700 Appraise Ugnu 56 20 30…
Major Projects Gross Peak Current Project Startup Region Significant Project WI% Production Phase MBOED APLNG 42.51 280 3702 Define Australia Sunrise 30 130 150 Appraise Poseidon 60 TBD3 Appraise Panyu Growth 25 40 50…
Major Projects Gross Peak Current Project StartUp Region Significant Project WI% Production Phase MBOED Su Tu Nau 23 20 30 Appraise Vietnam Su Tu Trang 23 30 50 Appraise Kashagan 11 8 4502 Execute Russia / Caspian…
Qatargas 3 Accelerated startup and rampup First LNG produced November 2010 Current production 80 MBOED net 30% liquids yield Future LNG deliveries targeted toward Europe, China and SE Asia Low F&D and attractive cash…
Asia Pacific 2010 Cash Margins /BOE 80 60 35 40 23 20 0 Asia Pacific E&P avg. 2 O&O Taxes & other Cash Expanding high margin legacy position Production MBOED Investing 2.4 B in 20111 600 CAGR 8% 450 Future growth driven…
Other Asia Pacific Major Projects Malaysia Indonesia Multiple deepwater developments S Belut and Bawal: Block B expansions KBB/Malikai sanction in Q2 2011 Caltex 3 and Suban: Corridor Block PSC 80 MBOED net peak production 25…
North Sea 2010 Cash Margins /BOE 80 60 29 40 23 20 0 North Sea E&P avg. O&O Taxes & other Cash Investing 1.5 B in 20111 Norway Production MBOED Jasmine, Clair Ridge, Ekofisk S, Eldfisk II 200 Avg. project F&D = 16 20 /…
Eagle Ford 2010 Cash Margins /BOE 80 60 40 23 45 20 0 Eagle Ford E&P avg. O&O Taxes & other Cash Latest Well Results 30 day average 220 M core acres in liquids rich fairway Early mover with low acreage costs Well…
Bakken 2010 Cash Margins /BOE 80 60 40 40 23 20 0 Bakken E&P avg. O&O Taxes & other Cash 460 M net acres in highliquids play Latest Well Results 30 day average Liquids Wet gas Total Continued performance improvements Well…
Permian and Barnett 2010 Cash Margins /BOE 80 60 40 23 28 20 0 Permian/Barnett E&P avg. O&O Taxes & other Cash Permian Barnett 1,040 M net acres HBP 65 M net acres with majority HBP Current liquids yield of 65% Current…
Liquids Growth Summary Early mover 2010 Cash Margins /BOE Lowcost acreage in 80 Eagle Ford & Bakken 60 + 40 31 23 Material position 20 0 1.8 MM acres Liquids growth E&P avg. 2.3 BBOE resource O&O Taxes & other Cash + Best…
San Juan 2010 Cash Margins /BOE 80 60 40 23 20 14 0 San Juan E&P avg. O&O Taxes & other Cash 1,300 M acres HBP; 1.7 BBOE resource Production MBOED Lowest cost and largest producer in basin 250 200 27% liquids with low…
Western Canada 2010 Cash Margins /BOE 80 60 40 23 20 19 0 W Canada E&P avg. O&O Taxes & other Cash Production MBOED 6,800 M net acres; 1.7 BBOE resource 250 Geologically diverse portfolio 200 137 M net acres in Cardium…
Canadian SAGD Portfolio 2010 Cash Margins1 /BOE Cumulative Steam Oil Ratios3 BBL/BBL 80 60 8 40 23 30 20 0 6 SAGD E&P avg. O&O Taxes & other Cash Foster Creek Surmont lifecycle 4 Christina Lake Surmont 1 Significant 15+ BBOE…
SAGD Production Growth Project Phase Startup1 SAGD Production MBOED Foster Creek AE 2002 CAGR 15% 300 Christina Lake AB 2002 Surmont 1 2007 250 Christina Lake C 2011 Christina Lake D 2013 200 Surmont 2 2015 Foster Creek F 2014…
Alaska Largest producer & reserves holder Strong cash margins Future growth driven by Infield drilling opportunities Western North Slope satellites Drilling Program Capital MM Unlocking heavy oil potential 400 300 ANS gas…
Deepwater Angola Angola Negotiating terms for 30% WI & operatorship of Blocks 36 & 37 Luanda 36 Analogous to Brazil presalt play 37 3D seismic 2011/2012 Drilling from 2013+ 200 Kms Securing position in promising…
Caspian Sea Exploration NCPSA Kazakhstan Russia Kazakhstan N Block Rak More discovery Rak More discovery N Block Nursultan wildcat Further appraisal planned Nursultan wildcat late 2011 / early 2012 Azerbaijan Turkmenistan…
Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Good opportunities to expand Gulf of Mexico position Lower Tertiary Play Area Coronado wildcat Tiber 1000 ft 5000 ft 8000 ft Tiber and Shenandoah appraisal 10000 ft Coronado Shenandoah…
North Sea Exploration Peking Duck Wildcats to test deep Triassic prospects Pelikan Analogous to UK JBlock discoveries Jackdaw Jade Peking Duck wildcat in 2011 Norw Pelikan wildcat in 2012 UK ay Jasmine Judy…
Australia Browse Basin Kronos1 well confirmed commercial flow rate capability Poseidon1 Kronos1 Poseidon2 Multiwell exploration and appraisal program in 2011/2012 Additional Poseidon prospectivity COP discovery Other…
North American Shale Plays Horn River Montney Liquids rich opportunities Bakken Early access Technology Barnett Established and emerging shale plays Avalon Shale plays Eagle Ford Liquids rich Material COP…
Poland Shale Play Accessed 1 MM acre position Lebien vertical pilot well 2010 Reentry and horizontal test May 2011 Continuing pilot program Drilled 2 vertical pilot wells Damnica vertical pilot well and Horizontal pilots in…
Wood River CORE Project January 2010 Upstream integration Increases heavy crude gross capability by 130 MBD February 2011 Improves clean product yield by 5% Startup Q4 2011 Project improves realized margin 4/BBL 75