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Northern Oil First Quarter 2020 Results

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   |    Monday,May 11,2020

Northern Oil & Gas reported its Q1 2020 results.

Highlights:

• First quarter production increased 28% over the prior year, averaging 43,735 barrels of oil equivalent ("Boe") per day

• Cash flow from operations, excluding $7.1 million from changes in working capital, totaled $93.6 million, which was a 7% increase over the prior year and exceeded first quarter capital expenditures of $86.7 million

• Senior Secured Notes reduced by $90.2 million in the first quarter; signed agreements to retire an additional $6.1 million subsequent to quarter-end

• Over 27,000 barrels per day of remaining 2020 oil production hedged at over $58 per barrel ("Bbl") average prices

• Approximately 20,000 barrels per day of 2021 oil production hedged at over $55 per Bbl average prices

• 2020 total capital expenditures now anticipated between $175 - $200 million, down 56% at the midpoint vs. 2019 D&C and ground game capital expenditures

CEO Nick O'Grady said: "Many companies are reacting quickly to the COVID-19 pandemic and the unprecedented fall in commodity prices. Northern is different. Instead of reacting to this calamity, we actually prepared in advance for it. The steps we have taken to improve our balance sheet over the past several years, our vastly superior multi-year risk management, and our strict capital allocation standards put us in a position of strength despite the current outlook. Over the next two years, we project generating free cash flows that approximate our entire current equity market capitalization. We will continue to ratchet down our debt levels, take advantage of market dislocations, and seek out distressed acquisitions that provide strong upside convexity."

Q1 Financial Results

First quarter net income was $368.3 million or $0.74 per diluted share, driven in large part by a $345.1 million mark-to-market gain on unsettled commodity derivatives. First quarter Adjusted Net Income was $21.7 million or $0.04 per diluted share, down from $27.8 million or $0.07 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2019. Cash flow from operations, excluding $7.1 million from changes in working capital, was $93.6 million in the first quarter compared to $87.5 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $108.0 million compared to $104.8 million in the prior year. (See "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below.)

Production

First quarter production increased 28% from the prior year and inline with the prior quarter to 4.0 million Boe or 43,735 Boe per day. Oil production represented 79% of total production at 34,488 Bbls per day. Production remained resilient in the first quarter despite only 7.3 net wells turned online during the quarter, which was 50% lower than the 14.6 net wells turned online in the fourth quarter of 2019. Additionally, material curtailments began in March within the basin, yet first quarter results remained roughly inline. Gas capture continues to improve in the Williston as infrastructure improvements have come online, which has helped improve overall gas sales volumes.

Pricing

During the first quarter, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") crude oil averaged $45.57 per Bbl, and NYMEX natural gas at Henry Hub averaged $1.91 per million cubic feet ("Mcf"). Northern's unhedged net realized oil price in the first quarter was $37.07, representing a $8.50 differential to WTI prices. Northern's first quarter unhedged net realized gas price was $2.75 per Mcf, representing approximately 144% realizations compared with Henry Hub pricing.

Operating / G&A Costs

Unit LOE costs increased to $9.38 per Boe in the first quarter compared to $8.84 per Boe in the fourth quarter of 2019 driven by increased processing costs and to a lesser extent higher workover expense. The increase in processing costs did have a positive impact on gas realizations in the quarter, which as noted in the pricing section above, rose notably sequentially. First quarter general and administrative ("G&A") costs totaled $4.9 million, including stock-based compensation. Cash G&A expense totaled $3.8 million or $0.95 per Boe in the first quarter.

Capital Expenditures

Capital spending for the first quarter was $86.7 million, made up of $64.9 million of organic D&C capital and $21.8 million of total acquisition spending and other, inclusive of ground game D&C spending. As mentioned above, Northern added 7.3 net wells to production in the first quarter, and wells in process increased modestly to 27.2 net wells versus 25.8 net wells at the end of the prior quarter. On the ground game acquisition front, Northern closed on 12 transactions during the first quarter, the majority of which stemmed from commitments made, but not closed, in the fourth quarter. These transactions yielded 3.6 net wells, 965 net mineral acres and 61 net royalty acres (standardized to a 1/8 royalty interest).

Liquidity & Capital Resources

As of March 31, 2020, Northern had $8.5 million in cash and $590.0 million outstanding on its revolving credit facility. Northern had total liquidity of $218.5 million as of March 31, 2020, consisting of cash and borrowing availability under the revolving credit facility.

As of March 31, 2020, Northern had additional debt outstanding consisting of a $130.0 million 6% Senior Unsecured Note and $327.5 million of 8.5% Senior Secured Notes. During the first quarter, Northern strengthened its balance sheet through several negotiated agreements and open market purchases aimed at reducing the principal amount of the 8.5% Senior Secured Notes. In the aggregate, the company retired $90.2 million in principal amount of these notes during the first quarter. Furthermore, and as noted in a Form 8-K filed on May 8th, Northern has continued to execute on the reduction of its secured debt in the second quarter and has entered into agreements to retire an additional $6.1 million of 8.5% Senior Secured Notes. Upon closing of these transactions, the outstanding principal amount on the 8.5% Senior Secured Notes will be reduced to $321.4 million.

2020 Guidance Commentary

Given the rapid deterioration in oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, Northern's operators continue to curtail and shut-in production in response to low wellhead prices. These plans are fluctuating and the timeframe for them is fluid. However, given Northern's strong oil hedge position, regardless of current production volatility and the overall cumulative volumes for 2020, Northern anticipates $350 to $410 million in Adjusted EBITDA⁽¹⁾ for 2020. Factors that will drive this range are primarily overall levels of production, in-basin pricing differentials, lease operating expenses for curtailed production, and derivative gains or losses based on the average WTI prices over these periods. Northern expects $55 to $60 million of total book interest expense for 2020. In addition, Northern anticipates approximately $175 to $200 million in total capital expenditures for 2020, 43-49% of which in this range has already been accounted for in the first quarter. Northern will additionally earmark, in the event of a substantial rise in commodity prices north of $40 WTI, approximately $50 million of "reserve capital" for completions of its drilled but uncompleted inventory. Based on the current forward strip, Northern does not anticipate the reserve capital being accessed at this time. In the interests of accelerating debt repayment, Northern's Board of Directors has elected to defer payment of the dividends on its Perpetual Preferred Stock and any potential common stock dividends until oil returns to economic levels. This should save the Company approximately $15 million for 2020. Northern continues to anticipate that it will generate significant free cash flow in 2020 and 2021.

Hedging

Northern hedges portions of its expected production volumes to increase the predictability of its cash flow and to help maintain a strong financial position. The following table summarizes Northern's open crude oil commodity derivative contracts scheduled to settle after March 31, 2020.

Capitalized costs are a function of the number of net well additions during the period, and changes in wells in process from the prior year-end. Capital expenditures attributable to the 1.4 well increase in net wells in process during the three months ended March 31, 2020 are reflected in the amounts incurred year-to-date for drilling and development capital expenditures.

Acreage

As of March 31, 2020, Northern controlled leasehold of approximately 183,245 net acres targeting the Bakken and Three Forks formations of the Williston Basin, and approximately 90% of this total acreage position was developed, held by production, or held by operations.