Drilling & Completions | Quarterly / Earnings Reports | Fourth Quarter (4Q) Update | Reserves | Financial Results | Capital Markets | Capital Expenditure | Capital Expenditure - 2021

NuVista Energy Talks 2021; Details Q4, Full Year 2020 Results

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   |    Friday,March 05,2021

NuVista Energy Ltd. reported its Q4 and full year 2020 results as well as its 2021 plan.

2021 Guidance Update

As discussed above, NuVista is pleased to note that both condensate and natural gas future strip prices have increased significantly in the past quarter, resulting in a significant increase to projected cash flows at the same time as tremendous progress has been made in reducing our net debt. Our continuing efforts are focused on balancing rapid debt repayment, increasing cash flow through prudent production growth, and creating a comfortable cushion above midstream minimum volume commitments. As such, the proceeds from the divestitures allow us room to use up to half in order to prudently increase our capital spending for 2021 and 2022 while maintaining spending below projected 2021 and 2022 cash flow levels. The remainder of the proceeds will continue to be applied towards permanent net debt reduction.

NuVista’s capital spending for 2021 has been increased to a range of $230 – $250 million from the original range of $180 – $200 million. As the spending will be added in the third and fourth quarters of 2021, there is a minimal production impact on 2021 but offsets the reduction from the divested volumes. This is then followed by a significant positive impact to our outlook for 2022 production and corresponding cash flow. 2021 production guidance is re-affirmed at 50,000 – 52,000 Boe/d. The preceding spending level assumes that strip prices remain near current levels, and is expected to result in significant ongoing reduction of net debt as well as dramatic reduction in net debt to cash flow ratio. We intend to continue our track record of carefully directing additional available cash flow towards a prudent balance of debt reduction and production growth until our existing facilities are filled to maximum efficiency, and net debt to cash flow levels reach 1.0x or less. Capital spending will continue to be weighted heavily towards Pipestone, as our highest return area, with expected well payouts well below a year. NuVista retains the flexibility to revise capital spending from the second quarter onwards, should commodity prices increase or retreat significantly from the current positive trend.

NuVista has a solid business plan that maximizes free cash flow and the return of capital to shareholders when our existing facilities are filled to capacity and maximum efficiency at flattened production levels of approximately 80,000 – 90,000 Boe/d. We are confident that the actions described above accelerate the Company towards that goal by as early as 2023, while still providing free cash flow and net debt reduction while growing through 2021-2023. With facilities filled, returns are enhanced further with corporate netbacks which are expected to grow by approximately $2-$3/Boe due to the efficiencies of scale which will reduce our unit operating, transportation, and interest costs by this amount.

NuVista has top quality assets and a management team focused on relentless improvement. We have the necessary foundation and liquidity to add significant value as commodity prices continue to recover. We have set the table for returns-focused profitable growth to between 80,000 – 90,000 Boe/d with only half-cycle spending, since the required facility infrastructure is now in place. We will continue to adjust to this environment in order to maximize the value of our asset base and ensure the long term sustainability of our business.

Q4 / Full Year 2020 Results

2020 was an unprecedented year where the world saw the COVID-19 pandemic deeply affecting all economies and temporarily reducing the demand for oil and natural gas worldwide, and this was compounded by the price pressures of the Saudi-Russian oil price war early in the year. Commodity pricing for WTI oil and NYMEX natural gas was highly volatile and averaged at decade low levels for much of the year. NuVista responded quickly and positively by significantly reducing capital, operating, and G&A expenditures to ensure balance sheet protection. We maintained our credit facility at $440 million and we renegotiated our midstream contract minimum volume commitments (MVC’s) for the long term in order to maximize short and long term flexibility for the volatile environment. NuVista also reduced staff, executive, and board compensation to lead in cost reduction discussions with contractors and vendors. We used the resulting free cash flow to significantly reduce net debt in the second half of the year as cash flow began to increase with recovering commodity prices.

All of the aforementioned actions have placed NuVista in the enviable position of moving forward through 2021 with strength and increasing momentum in the significantly improved commodity price environment.

Highlights:

• Produced 49,300 Boe/d, well above the guidance range of 47,000 – 48,000 Boe/d. Full year production was 50,443 Boe/d, which was virtually flat versus the 2019 figure of 50,803 Boe/d;
• Achieved $49.4 million of cash flow in the quarter ($0.22/share), including over $25 million of free cash flow (cash flow net of capital expenditures). Full year cash flow was $156.9 million, or $0.70/share;
• Achieved our net debt reduction target of $50 – $60 million in the second half of 2020 with free cash flow achieving $58 million of net debt reduction;
• Executed a successful and conservative 2020 capital expenditure program of $180.4 million, including the drilling of 25 (25.0 net) wells and the completion of 15 (15.0 net) wells in our condensate rich Wapiti Montney play. This includes $10 million of expenditures which were phased into the fourth quarter of 2020 from the first quarter of 2021 in order to facilitate an earlier commencement of our winter drilling program. A total of 14 drilled uncompleted wells were held for delayed completion in early 2021;
• Recognized an impairment recovery of $720 million in the fourth quarter, which largely offsets impairment expense of $909 million recognized in Q1 2020;
• Maintained total annual operating expenses approximately flat at $9.83/Boe despite the deliberate flattening of production during the COVID-19 crisis;
• Achieved record low G&A expenses of $0.76/Boe in 2020, continuing our long term trend of significant improvement with a reduction of 16% compared to the 2019 result; and
• Continued to significantly advance our progress and plans in environmental, social and governance (“ESG”), including continued positive strides in reducing GHG and methane emissions.

Reserves

Highlights of our 2020 reserves include:

• Held PDP reserves slightly above flat year over year via 103% PDP replacement ratio, at approximately 96 million BOE despite a 40% reduction in annual capital expenditures;
• Reduced corporate PDP F&D costs for the third consecutive year, reaching $9.44/Boe. This was driven by continued well cost reductions, positive technical revisions to existing reserves of 2% and continued strong well results;
• Achieved Total Proved Plus Probable (“TP+PA”) 3-year average F&D costs of $6.61/Boe; a reduction of 18% from 2019;
• Reduced base decline¹ from 32% to 28%; and
• Based on well costs achieved to date, average undeveloped well Drill, Complete, Equip & Tie-in (“DCET”) cost was reduced by 22%.¹Reflects the forecast first year annual average PDP production decline in the 2020 year end GLJ Report, compared against the forecast first year annual average PDP production decline in the 2019 year end GLJ Report.

Operations

We are pleased to report that operations across our entire asset base are currently proceeding ahead of schedule and under budget. A total of 22 new Montney wells are expected to be completed and brought on production from late in the first quarter through early in the second quarter of 2021. 12 of the wells are in our highest return Pipestone North area, 6 in Pipestone South, and 4 in the Bilbo area. Drilling and completions activities are nearing completion and costs are trending 10-15% below our 2020 average on a length/tonnage normalized basis. This is due to continued permanent structural design changes to our drilling and completions programs based on ongoing learnings. In addition, commissioning of the new Pipestone North Compressor Station, the Veresen Hythe Gas Plant expansion, and the associated pipeline are all progressing on schedule for commencement of operations in April.

Divestitures

The difficult world economic events of 2020 caused debt to rise and cash flow to fall for most exploration and production companies in our industry. NuVista took rapid action by adjusting capital expenditures and initiating cost cutting measures to protect the balance sheet. As noted earlier, we used the proceeds from free cash flow to reduce net debt by $58 million in the second half of 2020. Our debt reduction focus continued with the recently announced successful 2021 divestiture of our non-core Charlie Lake and Cretaceous Unit assets, as well as selected water infrastructure assets in the Wembley/Pipestone area, for total proceeds of $94 million. There was no change to NuVista’s ownership in our core Montney assets in Pipestone, Wapiti, and the surrounding area and no material change to our ownership in the Wembley gas plant. The total associated amount of 2021 production divested was approximately 1,100 Boe/d and there was no material impact on cash flow associated with either transaction. Pro forma the dispositions, NuVista’s bank drawings as at December 31, 2020 were approximately $269 million, significantly expanding the liquidity available within the $440 million credit facility. Pro forma net debt was $505 million, and fourth quarter net debt to annualized cash flow ratio was 2.6x. NuVista’s banking syndicate has reaffirmed the borrowing facility at $440 million. NuVista remains focused upon increasing cash flow as commodity prices continue to recover, and rapidly driving net debt towards a newly reduced long term target of less than 1x net debt to cash flow ratio.

Risk Management

NuVista has benefited from the discipline of our strong rolling hedge program during this period of volatile commodity prices. The unexpected onset of the COVID-19 pandemic had an immediate negative effect on world oil demand and prices. Natural gas pricing at NYMEX and other US hubs had in general been weaker lately due to the mild winter, however the recent period of significant cold weather in the US has temporarily increased demand and pricing while reducing supply. With WTI oil and NYMEX natural gas pricing at decade lows in 2020, NuVista relied on the significant hedges we had in place, and we limited our hedging activity during the commodity price lows.

The advances in vaccine delivery are now spurring expectations of increased demand. This, combined with reduced supply from reduced world investment, and OPEC production discipline, have now resulted in significant ongoing recovery in the price of WTI oil. With natural gas storage levels reducing on a significant increase in LNG shipments and the recent cold weather, improved and sustained strength in NYMEX gas pricing is expected through 2021. As commodity prices have now returned to levels that are profitable for NuVista, we have re-engaged our rolling hedging program to ensure attenuation of future price volatility and to underpin our prudently growing capital spending plans. We currently possess hedges which, in aggregate, cover 53% of projected 2021 liquids production (primarily front of year loaded) using a combination of swaps and three-way collars at an average WTI floor price of C$60.76/Bbl. We have hedged 37% of projected 2021 gas production (primarily summer season loaded) at an average floor price of C$2.05/Mcf (hedged and exported volumes converted to an AECO equivalent price) using a combination of swaps and collars. These percentage figures relate to production net of royalty volumes.

ESG Progress

We are proud to continue to demonstrate our commitment to transparency and ethical practices through our ESG performance. Approximately 60% of our current production is comprised of natural gas which has the lowest carbon footprint of any hydrocarbon, leading to our GHG performance being well ahead of the North American benchmark.   Canadian ESG standards are among the highest in the world, and NuVista continues to execute projects throughout the year to enhance our ESG progress, particularly in the areas of GHG and methane emissions reduction. We look forward to providing much more information in our updated annual ESG report in the third quarter of 2021.

At the new Pipestone compressor stations, NuVista and its midstream partners have invested $1.2 million to increase our count of waste heat recovery units from 7 to 10. These new units recover waste heat from compressor exhaust, significantly reducing fuel useage. This saves significant costs and avoids a total of approximately 4,500 T CO2e per year of future GHG emissions for the three new units alone. In our effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions further, another focus has been on establishing ourselves as a frontrunner in eliminating methane emissions. We’ve adopted the design philosophy of incorporating centralized compressed air into the ongoing build out of our Pipestone North and South fields. The new wells we are bringing on-stream in Pipestone are therefore zero routine methane venting emission sites. In our Wapiti field, where centralized compressed air is less viable, we are piloting our first solar powered compressed air solution at one of our well pads. More details on our emissions reduction efforts can be found within our 2020 submission to the Carbon Disclosure Project, and will also be available in our annual ESG report which will be released in late summer.

We also continued our commitment to responsibly abandoning and reclaiming inactive wells and facilities in our legacy areas. In 2020, we spent over $11 million on abandonment and reclamation work. Many of these dollars result in local economic and employment benefits to remote parts of Alberta, and we are actively working with our First Nation partners in these areas to ensure they are participating in these benefits as well. With 2020, COVID-19 became a big part of our normal high focus on Health and Safety, and in addition the $350,000 which NuVista and staff collectively donated to the communities and First Nations where we work and live, was expanded to include a COVID-19 relief element for those in need.