Quarterly / Earnings Reports | Third Quarter (3Q) Update

Perpetual Energy Reports Q3 2019 Results

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   |    Thursday,November 07,2019

Perpetual Energy Inc. reported its Q3 2019 results.

Highlights include:

• Exploration and development spending for the third quarter of 2019 was $4.5 million and was primarily directed towards the drilling and completion of two (2.0 net) exploratory six-leg multi-lateral heavy oil wells in the Ukalta area of Eastern Alberta. The two wells were brought on-stream late in the third quarter and are currently producing approximately 160 boe/d on clean-up.
  
  
• Production averaged 8,383 boe/d in the third quarter of 2019, down 12% from the comparable period in 2018. Perpetual temporarily shut-in an average 925 boe/d of East Edson production (11% of third quarter production) to take advantage of short-term situations when natural gas could be purchased at minimal cost to satisfy pre-sold volume commitments at attractive margins, resulting in an increase in realized revenue of $0.17/Mcf ($0.6 million) while retaining reserves for future production.
  
  
• Perpetual's market diversification contract enabled the Company to sell over 90% of its natural gas production (adjusted for heat content) to markets priced at five pricing hubs outside of Alberta, providing a 101% uplift over average AECO Daily Index prices during the third quarter (Q3 2018 – 98%).
  
  
• Realized revenue was $24.34/boe in the third quarter of 2019, and included $2.7 million ($3.50/boe or $0.77/Mcf) of realized gains on derivatives received from the monetization of the market diversification contract for the December 2019 to October 2020 period. Excluding the impact of the market diversification contract monetization, realized revenue in the third quarter of 2019 was $20.84/boe, down 11% from the prior year period, due to lower prices for all products despite an increased proportion of higher value oil and natural gas liquids ("NGL") in the production mix (Q3 2019 – 24%; Q3 2018 – 19%).
  
  
• Cash flow from operating activities in the third quarter of 2019 was $5.5 million ($0.09/share) and adjusted funds flow was $4.2 million ($0.07/share).
  
  
• On August 15, 2019, the Company received the oral decision related to the Statement of Claim filed on August 3, 2018 with respect to the Company's disposition of shallow gas assets in Eastern Alberta to an unrelated third party on October 1, 2016 (the "Sequoia Litigation"). The oral decision dismissed and struck all but one of the claims filed by PwC. The Court did not find that the test for summary dismissal relating to whether the transaction was an arm's length transfer for purposes of section 96(1) of the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (the "BIA") was met, on the balance of probabilities. Accordingly, the BIA claim was not dismissed or struck and only that part of the claim can continue against Perpetual. On August 23, 2019, PwC filed a notice of appeal with the Court of Appeal of Alberta, contesting the entire August 15, 2019 oral decision, and on August 26, 2019, Perpetual filed a similar notice of appeal contesting the BIA claim portion of the decision. The appeal proceedings will be scheduled following receipt of the written decision and are anticipated to take place during the first half of 2020. On September 24, 2019, Perpetual filed an application for security for costs of the appeal. Management expects that the Company is more likely than not to be successful in defending against the claim such that no damages will be awarded against it, and therefore, no amounts have been accrued as a liability in Perpetual's financial statements.

Q3 Highlights

Capital Spending, Production and Operations

• Perpetual's exploration and development spending in the third quarter of 2019 was $4.5 million, focused on the drilling and completion of two (2.0 net) exploratory six-leg multi-lateral heavy oil wells and associated production facilities in the Ukalta area of Eastern Alberta. The two wells were brought on-stream late in the third quarter and are currently producing on clean-up at 160 boe/d, and will contribute to the recognition of new reserves and additional drilling locations. Third quarter spending in West Central Alberta was minimal, as the Company continued to defer liquids-rich gas drilling in response to low Western Canadian natural gas prices.
  
  
• Perpetual also spent $0.5 million (Q3 2018 – $0.3 million) on abandonment and reclamation projects. The Company's aggregate AER Licensee Liability Rating ("LLR") was 4.4 at September 30, 2019 (September 30, 2018 – 5.1).
  
  
• Third quarter production averaged 8,383 boe/d, down 12% from 9,569 boe/d in the comparative period of 2018 and was 11% lower than the second quarter of 2019. Perpetual temporarily shut-in an average 925 boe/d of East Edson production (11% of total production) during the quarter to take advantage of short-term situations when natural gas could be purchased at minimal cost to satisfy pre-sold volume commitments at attractive margins, resulting in an increase in realized revenue of $0.17/Mcf ($0.6 million) while retaining reserves for future production. The Company also shut-in 1.8 MMcf/d (300 boe/d) of production at its Panny property in Eastern Alberta during the quarter and expects this production to remain offline indefinitely, or until property tax assessments more accurately reflect the value of the assets.
  
  
  
• Third quarter natural gas production averaged 38.2 MMcf/d, down 19% from 46.9 MMcf/d in the comparative period of 2018. While the base assets have performed well, natural gas production was impacted by shut-ins of 6.8 MMcf/d as well as limited capital investment throughout 2018 and 2019 in response to low AECO natural gas prices.
  
  
• Crude oil production in Eastern Alberta was 28% higher than the third quarter of 2018, reflecting increased production from the drilling program conducted during the second and third quarters of 2019 and lower base declines at Mannville due to positive waterflood performance. Compared to the second quarter of 2019, Eastern Alberta crude oil production was 8% higher. Crude oil production in Eastern Alberta is expected to increase in the final quarter of 2019 as production continues to ramp up from the two new wells which came onstream at Ukalta late in the third quarter.
  
  
• Production and operating costs were down by $1.0 million (20% decrease), exceeding the 12% decrease in production from the prior year period due primarily to the absence of $0.8 million of remediation costs incurred in the third quarter of 2018 associated with a produced water spill at Mannville. Total production and operating expenses were down 8% on a unit-of-production basis to $5.53/boe for the third quarter of 2019, compared to $6.02/boe for the comparable period of 2018.
  
  
  
• West Central operating costs increased by 2% to $2.49/boe in the third quarter of 2019 (Q3 2018 – $2.44/boe) due to the impact of declining natural gas production against a relatively fixed cost base.
  
  
• Eastern Alberta operating costs decreased 23% to $16.06/boe over the same period in 2018 (Q3 2018 – $20.75/boe) and declined 3% from $16.49/boe in the second quarter of 2019.

Financial Highlights

• Perpetual's petroleum and natural gas ("P&NG") revenue, before derivatives, for the three months ended September 30, 2019 of $17.1 million decreased 17% from the third quarter of 2018, due to the 12% decrease in average daily production combined with the impact of lower benchmark prices for all products. This was partially offset by the higher proportion of oil and NGL in the production mix for 2019.
  
  
  
• Natural gas revenue, before derivatives, of $8.2 million in the third quarter of 2019 comprised 48% (Q3 2018 – 55%) of total P&NG revenue while natural gas production was 76% (Q3 2018 – 81%) of total production. Natural gas revenue decreased 28% from $11.3 million in the third quarter of 2018, reflecting lower NYMEX-based prices, lower AECO prices, and tighter average basis differentials to the five market hubs used to price the market diversification contract, combined with the impact of the 19% decrease in natural gas production volumes driven by temporary shut-ins and natural declines following deferred capital investment in East Edson during 2018 and 2019. Perpetual's market diversification contract contributed $3.2 million or $0.92/Mcf of incremental revenue over the AECO Daily Index price in the quarter (Q3 2018 – $5.0 million or $1.17/Mcf)
  
  
• Oil revenue of $6.3 million represented 37% (Q3 2018 – 26%) of total P&NG revenue while oil production was 15% (Q3 2018 – 11%) of total production. Oil revenue was 17% higher than the same period in 2018, due to the 26% increase in crude oil production offset by the 6% decrease in the WCS average price to $58.36/bbl. The 19% decrease in the WTI light oil price was partially mitigated by a tightening of the WCS differential by US$10.01/bbl to US$12.24/bbl in response to the Government of Alberta's introduction of production quotas effective January 1, 2019. Perpetual did not fully participate in the improved WCS differential, as hedges were in place protecting a WCS differential of US$23.31/bbl on 1,000 bbl/d for the third quarter of 2019.
  
  
• NGL revenue for the third quarter of 2019 was $2.6 million, representing 15% (Q3 2018 – 19%) of total P&NG revenue while NGL production was just 9% (Q3 2018 – 8%) of total Company production. NGL revenue decreased by 32% from the prior year period while NGL production was flat at 731 bbl/d (Q3 2018 – 730 bbl/d), reflecting the 33% decrease in Perpetual's realized NGL price relative to the third quarter of 2018. Compared to the second quarter of 2019, realized NGL prices decreased 27% to $37.34/bbl, as prices for propane and butane moved lower compared to second quarter levels. Propane and butane prices remain disconnected from WTI light oil prices, reflecting excess supply produced from Western Canada and the United States.
  
  
• Perpetual's operating netback was $10.7 million ($13.91/boe) in the third quarter of 2019. After adjusting for the $2.7 million ($3.50/boe) received from the monetization of the market diversification contract, Perpetual's operating netback for the third quarter of 2019 was $8.0 million ($10.41/boe), down $3.0 million ($2.08/boe) or 27% from the comparative period of 2018. This decrease was due to lower realized revenue per boe for all products combined with production declines of 12%, partially offset by lower costs. The impact of the higher percentage of oil and NGL in the production mix was muted during the third quarter of 2019, as realized oil prices were 9% lower than the prior year period due to realized hedging losses on crude oil derivatives of $1.1 million ($8.83/boe).
  
  
• Net loss for the third quarter of 2019 was $20.3 million ($0.34/share), compared to a net loss of $12.3 million ($0.20/share) in the comparative period of 2018. The increase in net loss from the prior year period was driven by a $7.5 million decrease in the fair value of derivatives, a $5.9 million decrease in the fair value of the TOU share investment, and a $1.5 million restructuring provision associated with the reduction in Perpetual's employee head count undertaken in the third quarter. Partially offsetting these third quarter 2019 amounts was the absence of a $7.2 million non-cash impairment charge recorded in the prior year period associated with the Company's Waskahigan Duvernay prospect.
  
  
• Cash flow from operating activities in the third quarter of 2019 was $5.5 million ($0.09/share), down $1.2 million from the prior year period of $6.7 million ($0.11/share) due to the impact of lower prices and production, as the change in fair value of derivatives and the TOU share investment that impacted net loss did not impact cash flow from operating activities.
  
  
• Adjusted funds flow in the third quarter of 2019 was $4.2 million ($0.07/share), down $1.0 million (19%) from the prior year period of $5.2 million ($0.09/share) and reflective of the lower cash flow from operating activities. On a unit-of-production basis, adjusted funds flow was $5.42/boe in the third quarter of 2019, down 8% from the prior year period of $5.86/boe.
  
  
• At September 30, 2019, Perpetual had total net debt of $118.3 million, 5% higher than both June 30, 2019 and December 31, 2018, mainly attributable to the $5.9 million decrease in the fair value of TOU shares during the third quarter of 2019.
  
  
• As at September 30, 2019, 66% of net debt outstanding was repayable in 2021 or later. Perpetual's net debt to trailing twelve-months adjusted funds flow at the end of the third quarter increased to 5.3 times (December 31, 2018 – 3.7 times; June 30, 2019 – 4.8 times), due to the impact of both lower adjusted funds flow and increasing net debt.
  
  
• Perpetual had available liquidity at September 30, 2019 of $22.5 million, comprised of an unutilized revolving bank debt Borrowing Limit of $11.2 million and the market value of its TOU share investment, net of the principal amount of the associated TOU share margin demand loan, of $11.3 million.

Outlook

2019 Guidance

Perpetual has reduced its 2019 adjusted funds flow guidance from a range of $18 to $21 million, provided in a press release dated July 31, 2019 (the "Previous Guidance") to $14 to $16 million, due to the impact of lower realized prices in the third quarter and lower forward market prices for all products and the market diversification contract for the remainder of 2019. Capital expenditure guidance for 2019 is forecast at $12 to $13 million, as compared to Previous Guidance of $18 to $21 million. Minimal capital expenditures are planned for the fourth quarter in response to lower price expectations and to improve the Company's liquidity. The previously planned fourth quarter two well drilling program at East Edson has been deferred. With annual abandonment and reclamation activities to address decommissioning obligations associated with non-producing wells largely complete, 2019 spending of $2.0 million is expected to provide future surface lease rental and property tax expense reductions, while maintaining regulatory compliance.

In late September, Perpetual expected significant continued tightening in AECO basis relative to other North American markets to result from proposed changes to TC Energy's NGTL natural gas maintenance operating protocols that were implemented in early October. In response, Perpetual modified its 40,000 MMBtu/d market diversification contract to shift its pricing point back to AECO for the December 2019 to October 2020 period. The market diversification contract will continue to provide Perpetual with NYMEX based pricing from November 2020 to October 2024.

The table below summarizes actual and anticipated capital spending and drilling activities for the first three quarters and fourth quarter of 2019.

2019 Exploration and Development Forecast Capital Expenditures

Average 2019 production of 9,000 to 9,200 boe/d is anticipated, down from Previous Guidance of 9,200 to 9,500 boe/d. Reduced guidance reflects third quarter production shut-ins at East Edson averaging 925 boe/d in response to weak AECO natural gas prices, as well as 300 boe/d that was shut-in at Panny and will remain offline indefinitely or until the property tax burden is reduced. Production guidance also reflects lower anticipated fourth quarter production due to the deferral of drilling at East Edson. Fourth quarter production is expected to decrease marginally from third quarter levels as increased heavy oil production from the third quarter drilling program at Ukalta is anticipated to be more than offset by natural production declines at East Edson. Oil and NGL production is forecast to comprise approximately 25% of the production mix in the fourth quarter.

Cash costs of $17.50 to $18.50/boe are forecast for 2019, up 3% from the mid-point of Previous Guidance of $17.00 to $18.00/boe as decreased cash cost expenditure levels are more than offset by the impact of lower production. Commencing in the fourth quarter, general and administrative costs have been reduced by approximately $3.5 million annually following a 25% reduction in the Company's corporate employee head count and a reduction in compensation for remaining employees.

ear-end 2019 net debt is forecast at $120 - $123 million, up $5 million from Previous Guidance due to the decrease in the TOU share price during the third quarter. Current guidance is based on the following assumptions:

• Net debt at September 30, 2019 of $118.3 million;
• Reduction in the market value of the TOU share investment by $2 million;
• Forecast adjusted funds flow for the fourth quarter of 2019 of $1 to $2 million;
• Forecast capital spending for the fourth quarter of 2019 of $1 to $2 million;
• Forecast decommissioning expenditures for the fourth quarter of 2019 of $0.8 million; and
• Payment of restructuring costs of $0.6 million.

2020 Guidance

Perpetual's reserve-based credit facility is currently undergoing its semi-annual borrowing limit redetermination which is likely to reduce the current $55 million borrowing limit effective November 30, 2019 due to reductions in bank lending commodity price forecasts. Any reductions in the credit facility borrowing limit will reduce the Company's available liquidity. To preserve liquidity, the Company will defer further capital spending until the credit facility borrowing limit redetermination has been completed. The Company will issue its 2020 Guidance once the borrowing limit redetermination is known and capital spending plans have been determined.